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Investor's Corner

Tesla Battery Swaps and Model X Reservations Rising

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Tesla-Battery-Swap-Harris-Ranch-5

Tesla battery swap station at Harris Ranch in Coalinga, CA

Tesla’s Harris Ranch Battery Swap Station in Coalinga, Calf., is running at full-capacity according to a recent post on Tesla Owner. The blogger owns a Tesla Model S and recently tested the battery swap facility on a trip to Southern California.

Tesla Owner writes in “Battery Swap” on July 1:
The swaps are available seven days a week from around 9am to 5pm. When I called, the swap station was already quite booked for the next couple of weeks. I managed to schedule a trip by driving down on a Friday and returning on a Monday. No slots were available on the weekend and only two slots were available on that Monday. The station appears to be quite busy for the foreseeable future.

A little recent history on the Tesla battery swap stations: In late 2014, Tesla invited 200 Model S owners to participate in the battery swap station testing at Harris Ranch and then opened it up to all owners in 2015. However, Musk seems to be wringing his hands of the battery swap concept in recent weeks via interviews and the recent annual shareholder meeting.

>> Related Content >> A Peek Into Tesla’s Batter Swap Station at Harris Ranch

“Based on what we’re seeing here (battery swap stations), it’s unlikely to be something that’s worth expanding in the future, unless something changes,” Musk says. “For the Superchargers, as we’ve said in the initial press release, the Superchargers are free. It’s basically free long distance for life, forever.” Musk also has stated that longer ranges in future battery packs should eliminate the need for more battery swap stations.

The entire battery swap process takes about 7 minutes and costs approximately $80 dollars. The service is a nice convenience for a driver pressed for time as the following post discusses.

Model-X-Petaluma-size-comparison

Model S and pre-production Model X seen at the Petaluma, CA Supercharger (Source: User TslaUp via Stocktwits)

Model X Reservations on the Rise?
Model X reservations are moving upwards according to a TMC discussion thread, with a global total of 27,393 reservations through May 2015. The total net reservations after taking into account cancellations is at 23,150 for the cross-over vehicle according to TMC’s Wiki page.

(Source: TMC Wiki Page)

(Source: TMC Wiki Page)

One would think the cancellation number would be bigger, considering the length of time reservation holders have been waiting. (I know someone who’s been waiting three years). Tesla mentioned about 20,000 reservations at the end of 2014, so it looks like the moderate press attention in 2015 has helped with reservations.

Also, Tesla could be getting some cosmic timing for the Model X release. If the Model X release goes well in September, Tesla should receive another large boost in media attention leading into the holiday season. Not bad. As Edmunds reported 2012:

“Luxury makes like BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus have traditionally enjoyed strong end-of-year sales volumes triggered by higher incentive spending, and sell-offs of remaining current model-year vehicles.”

Tesla won’t have the incentives, but positive media reports and a second luxury offering should open consumers’ eyes.

*Any other Tesla owners using the battery swap station?

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>> Related Content >> Ladies in the House, Model X or BMW i3?

"Grant Gerke wears his Model S on his sleeve and has been writing about Tesla for the last five years on numerous media sites. He has a bias towards plug-in vehicles and also writes about manufacturing software for Automation World magazine in Chicago. Find him at Teslarati

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Elon Musk

Tesla AI boss reveals how big Optimus is going to get

Tesla’s Optimus chief corrected himself on X, confirming a staggering 10 million robot production target.

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Tesla Optimus Gen 3 [Credit: Tesla]

Tesla’s Optimus program has a new number attached to it, after Ashok Elluswamy, the executive who has run the humanoid robot program since June 2025, posted a three word correction on X Thursday, “Correction, 10 million robots.”

The line clarifies the long term annual capacity Tesla is building toward its planned second Optimus production line at Gigafactory Texas, a figure Musk has cited repeatedly since last year’s shareholder meeting.

The scale is worth noting, because ten million robots a year would mean Tesla building more units annually than most countries sell in new cars. Tesla has framed this as a second line, not the first. The buildout is happening in two phases: a roughly one million unit per year line inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, installed on the floor space vacated when Model S and Model X production ended earlier this year, and a much larger dedicated facility under construction at Giga Texas that broke ground on its first steel structure in May. That Texas facility is the one Elluswamy’s correction refers to, and is expected to reach volume production sometime in 2027.

Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress

Elluswamy took over Optimus from Milan Kovac last summer and has spent the months since talking up the program’s trajectory. Elon Musk has also floated the ten million figure at Tesla’s 2025 shareholder meeting.

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Ending Model S and Model X production to make room for the first Optimus line was one of the more consequential manufacturing decisions in the company’s recent history, retiring two flagship vehicles in favor of a robot that has yet to enter mass production. Musk has previously estimated per unit production costs at $20,000 to $25,000 once Tesla reaches a million units a year, though he hasn’t said what that cost looks like at ten times the volume.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX scores another massive Pentagon deal to support military satellites

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SpaceX just picked up another $1.6 billion from the Pentagon, with the U.S. Space Force awarding two task orders worth $1.6 billion to fly 18 Falcon 9 missions from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through the end of 2027. The launches will carry satellites for the Space Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, a set of programs meant to help the military detect and track airborne threats and relay that information across forces in near real time.

The award falls under National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1, the Space Force’s faster, commercial style procurement track for missions that do not require the military’s most demanding certification process. It is also the largest single order publicly disclosed under that program so far, and the first task order issued since the Space Force nearly tripled Lane 1’s contract ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion on July 17.

SpaceX to become America’s Military data backbone for missiles, drones, and warfighters

Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, said the entire process, from identifying the requirement to signing the contract, took about two months, including a month set aside for companies to prepare proposals.

SpaceX is not just launching these satellites. It already holds the contracts to build two of the programs within the same portfolio, $4.16 billion for the Space Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator system and $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network Backbone, which Teslarati covered in May. That means SpaceX is now responsible for both building key pieces of the military’s next generation sensing network and getting them into orbit.

With this latest award, SpaceX’s Pentagon contract total for 2026 alone tops $8 billion, adding to a defense portfolio that already includes the Golden Dome missile defense software group SpaceX joined in April and a string of GPS launches it inherited after ULA’s Vulcan rocket ran into a booster anomaly, which we detailed in March.

Lane 1’s vendor pool technically includes seven companies: SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Impulse Space, and Relativity Space. In practice, SpaceX remains the only provider with the combination of launch cadence, flight proven Falcon 9 hardware, and West Coast infrastructure to support a campaign requiring roughly one Vandenberg launch a month for the next year and a half.

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Some lawmakers have flagged the growing concentration of national security launches with one company as a risk worth watching. For now, the Space Force keeps backing SpaceX, with it being the company that shows up ready to launch.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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