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Tesla bull and ARK CEO Cathie Wood names her price to sell $TSLA holdings

Tesla's Fremont Factory. (Credit: peekaystudio/Instagram)

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Tesla bull and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has finally revealed what price $TSLA stock would have to hit for her investment firm to unload its shares of the electric automaker’s stock.

During the Morningstar Investment Conference on Wednesday, Wood began to discuss what it would take for ARK to scrap its holdings of $TSLA stock.

“If nothing were to change in our outlook and we got to $3,000 next year, my guess is that we would be peeling out of it,” Wood said, via Bloomberg News. The $3,000 price target was set by ARK on Tesla stock in March. “This project is our base case for TSLA’s stock price in 2025 based on our Monte Carlo analysis,” ARK analysts wrote in their most recent breakdown of Tesla in March. The astronomical price target was supported by ARK’s view that Tesla’s general product line will begin to expand, supported by increased manufacturing capabilities as the company builds more Gigafactories. Additionally, Tesla’s in-house insurance program, which is set to expand to Texas as soon as next month, also boosted ARK’s outlook by $60 per share.

Tesla bull Cathie Wood talks Robotaxis and ARK Invest’s greater conviction in TSLA

Finally, the most significant contributor to the $3,000 price target was Tesla’s Robotaxi and fully autonomous vehicles, which might be ready by 2025. “In our bear case example, ride-hail could add an additional $20 billion to Tesla’s operating profit by 2025, increasing our price target by about $500,” ARK analyst Tasha Keeney said.

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ARK also holds a Bear Case price target of $1,500 and a Bull Case of $4,000. Both of these targets also reflect projections for 2025.

Of course, there have been many times where ARK has sold shares of TSLA. However, the firm never sells the automaker’s shares due to bearish news or a negative outlook on the stock. Instead, ARK consistently adjusts its holdings so that no stock makes up more than 10% of a specific portfolio.

During the presentation, Wood also debated with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, who stated that only one EV stock would ultimately succeed. Arnott has not supported surging valuations, especially in Tesla’s sake, and has indicated that it is a case of “pricing delusion.”

When asked if the market was in a bubble, Wood refused to believe that idea. However, she did say, “I do believe the market is beginning to understand how profound some of these platform opportunities are, and how sustained and rapid the growth rates are going to be,” Reuters reported.

ARK’s Innovation ETF (ARKK) has 2.915 million shares of Tesla, making up 10% of the fund. At the time of writing, ARKK was trading at $118.39. Additionally, TSLA was trading at $750.88.

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Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder. He is not an ARKK shareholder.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below, or be sure to email me at joey@teslarati.com or on Twitter @KlenderJoey.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

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Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

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Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst’s firm has sold its entire TSLA position: Here’s why

Tesla analyst Gary Black revealed his firm, The Future Fund, has sold their entire $TSLA holding.

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tesla showroom
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund revealed today that his firm has sold its entire $TSLA holding, marking the first time since 2021 that it has not had a position in the company’s stock.

Black has been a skeptic of the company and relatively pessimistic regarding some things many investors would consider catalysts, outlining his concerns and reasoning for selling the shares.

Much of Black’s reasoning concerns Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio, delivery results and potential delivery figures for the future, and other near-term projects that he does not believe will yield as much value as others perceive.

We will break down each concern of Black’s below:

‘Disconnected from Underlying Fundamentals’

Black says that The Future Fund sold its holdings at $358 per share. The firm’s current price target is at $310, and he says it will remain there based on “our forecast of 2030 Tesla volumes of 5.4m and 2030 Adj EPS of $12.

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Main Concern is P/E Ratio

The main concern Black and The Future Fund have is that TSLA “now sells at a 2025 P/E of 188x as earnings estimates continue to fall (-5% in the past week, -40% YTD) driven by weak YTD deliveries, including weak April results.”

Black says he believes quarterly deliveries will decline by 12 percent, and full-year by 10 percent.

This compares to Wall Street’s estimates of a 7 percent decrease for Q2 and a 5 percent year-over-year.

Robotaxi Skepticism

“We believe the risk/reward associated with the Austin robotaxi test remain asymmetrical to the downside,” Black writes in his post on X.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

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Many believe the Robotaxi platform could be Tesla’s biggest catalyst moving forward, especially as other automakers do not seem to have even close to as robust a solution to self-driving as Tesla.

Tesla’s Affordable Models

Black says there are concerns the affordable model will be “a stripped-down Model Y priced lower and funded by lower costs rather than a new form factory that expands TAM.”

This is confusing, especially considering the cheaper price tag would expand the total addressable market (TAM) to begin with. The Model Y has been the best-selling vehicle in the world for the past two years.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Introducing an even lower-cost model with some missing features would still likely be a significantly more attractive option than a base model ICE vehicle, especially because the value Full Self-Driving provides would make the car more beneficial.

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“This increases odds that FY’25 estimates decline further, risking a repeat of 2023-2024, when TSLA reduced EV prices supported by lower costs, and TSLA saw little or no incremental volume growth,” he finishes with.

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Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

Tesla is set to win big from the launch of the Robotaxi platform, Wedbush’s Dan Ives said.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to kick off its own “golden age of autonomous growth” as its Robotaxi platform nears launch and a “dark chapter” for the company has evidently come to a close, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Ives has jostled his price target on Tesla shares a few times already this year, usually switching things up as the market sways and the company’s near-term outlook changes. His price target on Tesla has gone from $550 to $315 to $350 back to $500 this year, with the newest adjustment coming from a note released early on Friday.

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As CEO Elon Musk has essentially started to dwindle down his commitment to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) altogether, Ives believes that Tesla’s “dark chapter” has come to a close:

“First lets address the elephant in the room…2025 started off as a dark chapter for Musk and Tesla as Elon’s role in the Trump Administration and DOGE created a life of its own which created brand damage and a black cloud over the story….but importantly those days are in the rear-view mirror as we are now seeing a recommitted Musk leading Tesla as CEO into this autonomous and robotics future ahead with his days in the White House now essentially over.”

Ives believes Tesla’s launch of Robotaxi should be the company’s way to unlock at least $1 trillion in value alone, especially as the Trump White House will fast-track the key initiatives the automaker needs to get things moving in the right direction:

“The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose.”

There are some concerns moving forward, but none of which relate to the AI/autonomous play that Ives primarily focuses on within the Friday note. Instead, they are related to demand in both Europe and Asia, as Ives said, “there is still wood to chop to turn around Model Y growth” in both of those markets.

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Nevertheless, the big focus for Ives is evidently the launch of Robotaxi and the potential of the entire autonomous division that Tesla plans to offer as a ride-sharing service in the coming months. Ives also believes a 50 percent or more penetration of Full Self-Driving could totally transform the financial model and margins of Tesla moving ahead.

Aware of the setbacks Tesla could encounter, Ives still believes that Tesla will establish itself as “the true autonomous winner over” and that investors will recognize the AI vision the company has been so bullish on.

Ives pushed his price target to $500. Tesla shares are down just under 1% at the time of publication. They are trading at $337.88 at 11:45 on the East Coast.

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