Investor's Corner
Tesla China’s Model Y Standard Range rollout brings upside to suppliers: JP Morgan
Tesla’s recent rollout of the Model Y Standard Range variant in China is bringing on critiques of positivity from some investment firms, including JP Morgan, who believes the introduction of the new crossover configuration will lead to upside for not only the automaker but its suppliers as well.
On July 8th, Tesla China officially launched the Made in China Model Y Standard Range Rear Wheel-Drive variant. With a competitive price of ¥276,000, Tesla can expect drastic amounts of demand for the company’s (likely) most popular vehicle. The Model Y has seemed to overtake the Model 3 in terms of popularity in some regions, especially because of its pricing, cargo space, performance specifications. The Model Y SR’s anticipated range ratings, which currently sit at 326 miles (525 kilometers), only add additional hype for the highly-anticipated configuration of the crossover.
Tesla Model Y Standard Range lives on in China — and it’s priced to kill
Tesla already offered the Long Range Dual Motor and Performance variants of the Model Y in China, which were both competitively priced and among the country’s most purchased vehicles. The Model Y officially overtook the Model 3 in terms of sales in May 2021, eclipsing its sibling vehicle by over 3,500 units, according to Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) figures.
Because of the introduction of this new and demand-heavy variant, JP Morgan analysts Rebecca Wen, Nick Lai, Anqui Hu, and Jiajie Shen wrote a note to investors, indicating the vehicle could lead to “upside to battery and parts supply chain.” The introduction of the new variant already has JP Morgan expecting a drastic increase in production volume.
-->The analysts wrote:
“With this competitive offering, we believe Tesla Shanghai’s production volume (domestic sales and exports) will continue to ramp from the current ~33k units/month toward potentially 40k-60k units/month by year-end.”
Tesla’s production volumes in Shanghai have been increasing steadily as the company expanded the plant. After Model Y production began, the company started exporting some units to Europe, where demand for Tesla’s vehicles continues to grow. The note also highlights the Model Y’s competitive nature in China, as it is only eclipsed by the HongGuang Mini EV, a vehicle that is highly affordable due to its lack of standard features and also is apart of a different vehicle segment.
As demand continues to increase, JP Morgan said in the note that Tesla’s suppliers are also sitting in a good position, as they will benefit from the new Model Y launch. “While we see a high chance of a technical pullback following the rally, we believe the supply chain may trade3 at higher levels by end-2021 as underlying fundamentals continue to beat our estimates, including top-line volume (potential pent-up demand in 2H21) and margins (given the scale and stabilizing material prices.) Tesla supply chain players that may meaningfully benefit from the new Model Y launch include Tuopu (OW) and CATL (OW) and materials suppliers such as Putailai (OW).”
JPMorgan on Tesla ??
“With this competitive offering (model Y LFP), we believe Tesla Shanghai’s production volume (domestic sales and exports) will continue to ramp from the current ~33k units/month toward potentially 40k-60k units/month by year-end.”$TSLA pic.twitter.com/5DOFTNs5Jd
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) July 9, 2021
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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