Investor's Corner
Tesla has its heart set on Texas for upcoming Cybertruck Terafactory
Tesla will likely select Austin, Texas as the location for its next Cybertruck Gigafactory, but that doesn’t mean they’ll turn down offers from other regions that are vying for their attention, including Tulsa, Oklahoma.
First reported by Electrek, and later confirmed by Teslarati with multiple sources, Texas is the forerunner to become home to the company’s next US factory.
The Elon Musk-led electric carmaker has been scouting for land in the outskirts of Austin and in nearby Taylor, roughly 30 miles northeast of the city, since earlier this year. While there have been no property sale records that link back to Tesla or an entity related to the company, sources tell Teslarati that the company is considering the acquisition of several large parcels of land near the industrial zones in Taylor.
Indicators that Tesla was considering Texas as the site for its next US-based Gigafactory grew stronger in February when CEO Elon Musk tweeted a poll that teased the question, “Giga Texas?”
Musk would later confirm, in March, the company’s desire for a Cybertruck Gigafactory that will be located closer to the east coast than California.
-->And last week, the company held talks with politicians in the Lone Star State, as confirmed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
“It’s true,” Abbott said over Twitter. “Texas is a perfect fit for Tesla.”
“I’ve had the opportunity to talk to Elon Musk, and he’s genuinely interested in Texas and genuinely frustrated with California. We’ve just got to wait and see how things play out,” the Texas Governor said in an interview with a local television station.
Other cities in Texas, like Fort Worth and Houston, have also welcomed Tesla by making suggestions to bring car manufacturing into their region. Houston stated that Musk could consolidate Tesla and SpaceX operations in its city, according to Mayor Sylvester Turner.
-->“As we continue our industrial evolution, I invite you to play a leading role in our story. As the only market that can immediately meet the production needs of Tesla and SpaceX, Houston provides a single solution for your operations,” Turner wrote. “Houston offers a broad innovative ecosystem in which industries coverage to solve the world’s greatest challenges in energy, manufacturing, logistics, and space.”
.@elonmusk Houston offers the #CompleteSolution to consolidate @Tesla and @SpaceX operations in one region. Join a city of innovators working to make the world better—just like you. #youbELONginHOU #HOUxTESLA
Read more here https://t.co/292AUyjW7Q pic.twitter.com/GhUZTPGvLs
— Houston Mayor's Office (@houmayor) May 15, 2020
Tesla’s next Gigafactory in the Central US will be geared toward the mass production of its upcoming Cybertruck, and the production of its Model Y crossover for the East Coast market.
-->While all indicators point to Austin, Texas as being the site for the company’s Cybertruck Gigafactory, a source tells Teslarati that the company is also considering another central U.S. location that’s 450 miles north of Austin: Tusla, Oklahoma.
Recently, State Representative Ryan Martinez and Governor Kevin Stitt invited Tesla to come to the Sooner State.
“Oklahoma is a wonderful place to do business. We’ve got a low tax base, a low cost of living, great incentives and services, and plenty of space to build a manufacturing headquarters and house all of your people,” Martinez said.
Texas appears to be the favorite in the race to become home to Tesla’s next US factory, however, the largely rural areas of Tulsa is also being considered as a region for its manufacturing facility. By having Tulsa in the conversation, along with other states that continue to court the company, Tesla can only benefit through increased leverage in its negotiations for local incentives.
With economic activity taking a massive blow in the face of the ever-changing pandemic, local governments need the economic boom that a Tesla Gigafactory can otherwise spark for the region.
-->And with Musk at the helm, who’s no stranger to walking the cashflow tightrope and striking at a good deal when it presents itself, rest assured that there’s going to be plenty of FOMO among state politicians before Tesla ultimately picks Texas.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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