Investor's Corner
Tesla Earnings: Wedbush expects AI, EV demand, Presidency to take focus in Q2 call
Tesla Earnings is today, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has plenty of expectations for the automaker’s Q2 call.
Tesla beat expectations for deliveries and solidified a solid quarter for the Energy division with its biggest deployment to date, giving it a chance to run on Wall Street as the past month the stock is up over 36 percent.
However, there are plenty of things that need to be talked about on today’s call, especially Artificial Intelligence and Robotaxi, demand for Tesla’s EVs, and potentially some talk on the U.S. Presidential Election. Wedbush expects to hear from CEO Elon Musk on each of these topics:
AI, FSD, and Robotaxi
Wedbush said in a note to investors ahead of the call that there are plenty of things that need to be confronted on the AI, FSD, and Robotaxi subjects.
Tesla and Musk stand to benefit from a Trump presidency, Ives writes, stating that if he were to win another term, regulatory hurdles may be no more than a simple hop instead of a full-fledged jump for the automaker:
“The Street view is also that a Trump White House potential win could help Musk/Tesla on the FSD regulatory path down the road.”
Tesla will also need to bring more closure to investors regarding the delay and new timing of the Robotaxi unveiling event, which was originally scheduled for August 8.
Tesla delayed the event, Musk confirmed earlier this month, as changes to the vehicle needed to be made:
“The Street will be focused on Musk addressing the timing of Robotaxi Day, which appears to have moved from August 8th to early/mid-October. Addressing the delay in Robotaxi Day and the new timing will be important to hear on the conference call as we believe a linchpin to Tesla reaching $1 trillion+ valuation and ultimately higher over the next year is contingent on the AI/FSD story materializing into a monetization path over the coming years.”
Tesla Demand and Margins
Some analysts have already outlined their concern for margins on this call, especially as Tesla continues to spend in order to get the Cybertruck ramped up.
Ives believes Tesla should “march towards 2 million units annual trajectory” as “clear momentum” has pushed the automaker into a strong position moving forward.
He also commented on the “sweet spot” for margins:
“Auto gross margins (ex credits) in the 16.5%-17% range would be the sweet spot and should mark the beginning of an upward climb into the next few quarters as price cuts appear to be mostly done with price increases in some regions/models seen the last few weeks. A major focus of the conference call will be the overall demand environment, China growth in a competitive/price cut backdrop, and the outlook for the rest of the year.”
U.S. Presidential Election
Ives believes Musk will comment on the U.S. Presidential election as the race has major implications not only for Tesla specifically, but for the EV sector in general.
Musk has publicly supported former President Donald Trump, and although rumors of a $45 million a month donation to the Trump campaign circulated, Musk denied the claims.
However, he has stated explicitly that Trump will get his vote in November.
Ives explains the importance of this being talked about during the call this evening:
“We also expect Musk to address the US Presidential Election with his firm backing for Trump and now a Harris nomination likely for the Democrats heading into November. We continue to believe in the scenario of a Trump win this would be negative for the EV industry but positive for Tesla as removing the tax rebates/incentives would give Musk and Tesla an advantage. The Street view is also that a Trump White House potential win could help Musk/Tesla on the FSD regulatory path down the road. On the other hand a Harris ticket would be a positive for Detroit (GM, Ford, Stellantis) and the EV industry and in theory also help Tesla, although this all remains up for debate among investors. We expect Musk to discuss some of his thoughts around this hot button topic on the conference call tomorrow.”
You can read what investors and analysts want to know on the call here:
Tesla Earnings is tomorrow – Here’s what analysts think you should be looking for
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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