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Tesla’s Elon Musk may have multiple paths to get 25% voting stake: Morgan Stanley

Credit: Tesla

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Elon Musk recently responded to a news report alleging that he redirected Nvidia H100 GPUs that were intended for Tesla to X and xAI. In his response, Musk noted that Tesla did not have the space for the GPUs yet, so instead of placing them in a warehouse for storage while waiting for Giga Texas’ extension to be completed, they were used for X and xAI. He also assured that Giga Texas’ south extension will house 50,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs for FSD training. 

In light of the reports, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that Tesla shareholders may really need to be prepared for the prospect of the electric vehicle maker slowing down its AI efforts if Elon Musk fails to achieve a 25% voting stake in the company. These AI efforts, the Morgan Stanley analyst noted, may be focused on non-Tesla entities where Musk has control.

That being said, Jonas also noted that even if TSLA investors do not vote to ratify Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award, there may be a number of paths that Musk could take so he can achieve a 25% voting stake in the electric vehicle maker, at least over time. Such a scenario, of course, assumes that Musk would stay on as CEO of Tesla even if his work since 2018 remained essentially unpaid. 

Following are the Morgan Stanley analyst’s thoughts about Tesla’s AI efforts and Elon Musk. 

Without Elon Musk achieving a 25% voting stake in the company, we believe Tesla shareholders should be prepared for Tesla to significantly slow down/curtail its direct investment in sensitive/advanced Al efforts.

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Per the 4Q23 earnings call, when asked why he is uncomfortable expanding Al and robotics at Tesla without 25% of voting share, Mr. Musk said: ‘I see a path to creating an artificial intelligence and robotics juggernaut of truly immense capability and power… I’m not looking for additional economics. I just want to be an effective steward of very powerful technology.’

While Tesla may still be in a position to benefit indirectly from Al advancements, we believe that most of the adjacent Al efforts could be concentrated within non-Tesla entities where Elon Musk has control (in the event Mr. Musk does not reach a 25% voting share of Tesla).

While investor opinions around the June 13th shareholder vote are in flux, we believe there may be any number of potential paths for Elon Musk to achieve a 25% voting stake in Tesla (over time) even without the inclusion of the 2018 compensation package.

Tesla is expected to hold its 2024 Annual Stockholders’ Meeting, also known as the 2024 Cyber Roundup, on June 13, 2024 at Giga Texas. The event, similar to Tesla’s other key meetings, would be live-streamed. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed

The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives. 

Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars

Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.

Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.

TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target

TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects. 

Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.

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Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

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Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

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Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

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