Investor's Corner
Tesla ends Q4 2018 with a flourish, passes 190k total Model 3 VIN registrations
Tesla started 2018 as an electric car maker struggling to ramp the production of its most ambitious vehicle. As Q4 2018 comes to a close, it is becoming apparent that Tesla is closing the year as a carmaker that can hold its own against the veterans of the hyper-competitive auto industry. Seemingly as a final flourish to an otherwise historic 2018, Tesla has registered what could very well be its final large batch of Model 3 VINs for the quarter, breaching the 190,000 barrier for filings of the electric sedan.
#Tesla registered 3,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 193556. https://t.co/ezA2Bas4Kh
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) December 30, 2018
Twitter group @Model3VINs, which tracks registrations for the electric sedan, recently reported that Tesla filed a rather large batch of 3,569 vehicles, comprised of both Dual Motor and RWD units. With this latest batch, Tesla has broken the 190,000 mark in total Model 3 filings to date. Among this number, more than 75,000 were registered in the fourth quarter alone. As noted by this graph provided by the Model 3 VIN tracking group, the Q4 2018 is characterized by a massive influx of RWD filings, possibly as a result of the introduction, production, and deliveries of the Mid Range Model 3.
To keep the company’s Q4 Model 3 VIN registrations in perspective, it should be noted that Tesla was only able to breach the 75,000 mark back in mid-July, roughly a year since starting the production of the vehicle. For a company that encountered hiccups with the Model 3 ramp, being able to register 12 months worth of cars in the past 90 days is impressive.
Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations for the fourth quarter comes amidst reports that the company has reached a point where it is capable of producing 1,000 units of the electric sedan every day. As reflected by an alleged leaked email from Elon Musk late last month, as well as by social media posts from Tesla employees in the days and weeks after, it appears that the company’s Model 3 output continues to improve.
-->https://twitter.com/VickiSalvador/status/1074397006318120960
With Tesla at a point where it is capable of sustained levels of Model 3 production, the company is now starting to lay the foundations for the electric sedan’s international ramp in 2019. In Europe, for one, reports have emerged pointing to Tesla shipping 3,000 Model 3 per week starting in February. Deliveries of the Model 3 in China are also expected to begin within the next few months.
At the core of the Model 3, though, lies the vehicle and its demand. In several key regions such as the United States, after all, the Model 3 competes in a market that widely prefers SUVs and larger vehicles. Nevertheless, as the electric sedan’s sales in the US and Canada have shown so far, the Model 3 is capable of standing out despite being a passenger car in an SUV dominated region.
As the Model 3 prepares to breach the foreign markets, Wall Street analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities noted that demand for the vehicle would likely be strong in 2019. According to the analyst, the demand for the car in regions such as Europe — which still have notable passenger car markets — would likely reduce Tesla’s need to raise capital in the near future.
“Demand for Tesla’s Model 3 mid-size electric sedan looks very strong into 2019 and beyond. While there are worries that some European unit shipments might spill over into Q2 and out of Q1, we believe the Street is well aware of this potential timing dynamic as underlying pent-up demand looks robust on this new European frontier for Musk & Co heading into 2019, with China also a major growth catalyst on the heels of recent price cuts,” the analyst wrote.
-->As a cherry on top for the already successful vehicle, the Model 3 recently received the 2018 Car of the Year award from The Detroit News, with longtime gearhead Henry Payne stating that the electric sedan is “Apple on wheels.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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