Investor's Corner
Tesla’s ‘leading choice’ for its Europe Gigafactory site is Germany
In a series of tweets on Monday, Elon Musk casually stated that Tesla’s “leading choice” for the site of its Europe Gigafactory is Germany. According to Musk, the facility would probably be built somewhere on the German-French border, near the Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg) countries.
Germany is a leading choice for Europe. Perhaps on the German-French border makes sense, near the Benelux countries
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 19, 2018
A Gigafactory in Europe has been in Musk’s radar for some time now. References to the facility being built in the region were teased by Musk back in late 2016, after the company announced its acquisition of Grohmann Engineering. Grohmann Engineering, now known as Tesla Grohmann Automation, is based in Prüm, Germany, which makes it strategically located for any facility that Tesla builds near the German-French border. With the robotics company nearby, Tesla would be able to scale the manufacturing capabilities of its Europe Gigafactory with relative ease.
Several areas in Germany close to the Benelux countries actually have thriving car industries. Baden-Württemberg, for one, is home to facilities owned by legacy automakers such as AMG, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Audi. Apart from being the third-largest state in Germany, Baden-Württemberg is also one of the regions in the country with the highest density of electric cars and EV charging infrastructure. Baden-Württemberg is also home to a good number of academic institutions, which could provide Tesla with a sizeable pool of potential employees.
-->Overall, the prospect of the Europe Gigafactory being set up in Germany stands to benefit Tesla’s customers and other facilities in the region. With the Europe Gigafactory producing battery packs, powertrains, and vehicles, Tesla’s other facilities in the area, such as its Tilburg, Netherlands assembly plant, could increase its capability to roll out electric vehicles.
Ultimately, however, a Gigafactory in Europe would be Tesla’s ticket to saturating the region with competitively-priced vehicles such as the Model 3, and possibly even the Model Y. During Tesla’s Q1 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk noted that all future Gigafactories would be incorporating vehicle production. With its first foray into the mid-sized luxury segment — the Model 3 — already proving to be a formidable competitor in its class in the United States, an aggressive push of the vehicle in Europe could very well put a sizeable dent in the profits of the region’s legacy automakers.
Tesla’s Europe Gigafactory would likely take some time before its construction begins, however. For now, Tesla is focused on establishing the China Gigafactory. The upcoming factory, which will be wholly owned by Tesla thanks to changes in China’s rules for facilities owned by foreign automakers, is expected to be the site where the majority of the Model Y crossover SUV would be produced. Details about the upcoming all-electric crossover SUV have been dropped by Musk during the past few earnings call as well. Back in Q3 2017, Musk asserted that its China facility would not produce the Model S and Model X, but rather, the Model Y and Model 3. During the Q4 2017 call, Musk stated that Tesla would begin investing in the Model Y sometime later in 2018.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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