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Tesla delivers its 200,000th car, triggering the EV tax credit phase-out period
Tesla has delivered its 200,000th vehicle this month, triggering the phase-out period of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles offered in the United States.
As seen on Tesla’s official Electric Vehicle Incentives page, the phase-out period for the $7,500 federal tax credit is in effect for all Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles delivered on or before December 31, 2018, while buyers taking delivery in 2019 will only be eligible for a subset of that original $7,500 credit. Customers taking delivery between January 1 to June 30, 2019 will be eligible for a $3,750 federal tax credit, or half of the full amount before phase-out. Those taking delivery in the second half of 2019, between July 1 to December 31, 2019 will be eligible for a $1,875 federal tax credit.
The federal credit applied to new electric vehicles, dubbed by the IRS as the Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D), affects all EVs that were acquired after December 31, 2009. The credit, which took effect during the previous administration as a means to encourage drivers to adopt zero-emissions vehicles, featured a tiered credit, starting at $2,500 and going all the way up to $7,500 depending on the battery capacity of an electric car. The IRS’ official website describes how the sale of a manufacturer’s 200,000th electric car triggers the tax credit phase-out period.
“The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (‘phase-out period’).”
Tesla actually played its cards cleverly with regards to the $7,500 tax credit phase-out. Being a car company that exclusively manufactures electric cars, it was inevitable that the company would be the first automaker to hit the 200,000 mark. By reaching this milestone shortly after the second quarter, Tesla actually gave itself, as well as its customers, an additional 18 months to obtain any sort of credit. the $7,500 credit remains in effect for the whole quarter in which the 200,000th vehicle was delivered, as well as the quarter after.
After this point, the credit gets reduced by 50% to $3,750 for two quarters. In Tesla’s case, this corresponds to Q1 and Q2 2019. From Q3 and Q4 2019, Tesla’s vehicles will still be eligible for a tax credit, though it would be reduced to $1,875 by this time. Tesla’s electric cars produced from January 2020 moving forward will not be eligible for tax credits anymore.
In a way, Tesla’s timing for hitting the 200,000 mark appears to be strategic. The company, after all, just recently managed to attain its goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of Q2 2018. Signs from the company, such as test drives for the Model 3, massive batches of new VINs filed one after another, and a new 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery system, all seem designed to deliver as many of the electric cars to customers as fast as possible.
If there is a group of reservation holders that would feel the effect of the credit phase-out, however, it would be those holding out for the Standard Range RWD Model 3, which starts at $35,000. In a Twitter update, Elon Musk stated that Tesla would likely start the production of the base Model 3’s smaller battery pack by the end of 2018. From there, Musk noted that volume production for the vehicle would probably begin in Q1 2019.
In a meeting with investors and analysts this past Tuesday, Tesla’s Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew reportedly stated that the company is aiming to sustain its 5,000 per week pace for Q3 2018, increasing output to 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018. By mid-2019, Tesla expects to produce 10,000 Model 3 per week, which corresponds to an output of 500,000 vehicles per year.
If Tesla manages to sustain its 5,000 Model 3 per week rate from August to September 2018, and achieve a steady rate of 7,000 vehicles per week from October 2018 to June 2019 (assuming no production ramps happen within these months), the company would be able to produce 292,000 Model 3. With a 10,000 per week rate from July to December 2019, Tesla would be able to deliver an additional 240,000 more. Thus, if Tesla plays its cards right and ramps the Model 3 in a manner that is careful and precise, it could deliver as many as 532,000 cars that are still eligible for federal credit (albeit the $3,750 and $1,875 credit). Considering that the backlog of 420,000 remaining Model 3 orders are from customers across the globe, there is a good chance that all present reservation holders in the United States would be able to get a credit for their vehicle.
Elon Musk
ARK’s SpaceX IPO Guide makes a compelling case on why $1.75T may not be the ceiling
ARK Invest breaks down six reasons SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO valuation may be justified.
ARK Invest, which holds SpaceX as its largest Venture Fund position at 17% of net assets, has published a detailed investor guide to why a SpaceX IPO may be grounded in a $1.75 trillion target valuation.
The financial case starts with Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet constellation, which has surpassed 10 million active subscribers globally as of early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK’s research puts the total satellite connectivity market opportunity at roughly $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is adding customers faster than any telecom network in history. That growth alone would justify a substantial valuation.
Additionally, ARK notes that SpaceX has reduced the cost per kilogram to orbit from roughly $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today through reusable Falcon 9 hardware. A fully operational Starship targeting sub-$100 per kilogram would represent a significant cost decline and open markets that do not currently exist. SpaceX executed a staggering 165 missions in 2025 and now accounts for approximately 85% of all global orbital launches. That infrastructure position took decades to build and would be nearly impossible to replicate at comparable cost.
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The February 2026 merger with xAI added a layer to the valuation that straightforward financial models struggle to capture. ARK argues that at sub-$100 launch costs, orbital data centers could deliver compute roughly 25% cheaper than ground-based alternatives, without power grid delays, permitting friction, or land constraints. Musk has stated a goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year from orbit.
The $1.75 trillion figure itself is not a conventional earnings multiple. At roughly 95x trailing revenue, it prices in Starlink’s adoption curve, Starship’s cost trajectory, and the orbital compute thesis together. The public S-1 prospectus, due at least 15 days before the June roadshow, will give investors their first complete look at the financials to test those assumptions. ARK’s position is that the track record earns the benefit of the doubt. Fully reusable rockets were considered unrealistic for years. Starlink was considered financially unviable. Both happened on timelines that surprised skeptics.
Elon Musk
Ford CEO Farley says Tesla is not who to look at for EV expertise
Interestingly, Farley has been one of the most hellbent CEOs in terms of a legacy automaker standpoint to push the EV effort. It did not go according to plan, as Ford took a $19.5 billion charge and retreated from its EV push in late 2025.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a recent podcast interview that Tesla is not who Americans should look at to beat Chinese carmakers.
The comments have sparked quite a bit of outrage from Tesla fans on X, the social media platform owned by Elon Musk.
Farley said that Chinese automakers are better examples of how to beat competitors. He said (via the Rapid Response Podcast):
“If you’re an American and you want us to beat the Chinese in the car business, you’re all going to want to pay attention, not necessarily to Tesla. Nothing against Tesla—they’ve been doing great—but they really don’t have an updated vehicle. The best in the business for us, cost-wise and competition-wise, supply chain, manufacturing expertise, and the I.P. in the vehicle, was really BYD. In this next cycle of EV customers in the U.S., they want pickups and utilities and all these different body styles. But they want them at $30,000, not $50,000. Like the first inning, they want them affordably.”
Despite Farley’s synopsis, it is worth mentioning that Tesla had the best-selling passenger vehicle in the world last year, and in China in March, as the Model Y continued its global dominance over other vehicles.
Musk responded to Farley’s comments by stating:
“This is before Supervised FSD is approved in China. Limiting factor is production output in Shanghai.”
This is before supervised FSD is approved in China. Limiting factor is production output in Shanghai.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 19, 2026
Interestingly, Farley has been one of the most hellbent CEOs in terms of a legacy automaker standpoint to push the EV effort. It did not go according to plan, as Ford took a $19.5 billion charge and retreated from its EV push in late 2025.
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Instead, Ford is “doubling down on its affordable” EVs and said it would pivot from its previous plans.
Reaction from Tesla fans was pretty much how you would expect. Many said they have lost a lot of respect for Farley after his comments; others believe he is the last CEO anyone should be taking advice on EVs from.
Nevertheless, Farley’s plans are bold and brash; many consider Tesla the most ideal company to replicate EV efforts from. It will be interesting to see if Ford can rebound from this big adjustment, and hopefully, Farley’s plans to replicate efforts from BYD work out the way he hopes.
Elon Musk
SpaceX wins its first MARS contract but it comes with a catch
NASA awarded SpaceX a $175 million Mars rover contract while the White House proposes cutting the mission.
NASA just signed a $175.7 million contract with SpaceX to launch a Mars rover that the White House is simultaneously trying to defund. The contract, awarded on April 16, 2026, tasks SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy with launching the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Rosalind Franklin rover from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, no earlier than late 2028. It would mark the first time SpaceX has ever sent a payload to Mars.
Under NASA’s Rosalind Franklin Support and Augmentation project, known as ROSA, the agency is providing braking engines for the rover’s descent stage, radioisotope heater units that use decaying plutonium to keep the rover warm on the Martian surface, additional electronics, and a mass spectrometer instrument, as noted by SpaceNews.
Those nuclear heating units are the reason an American rocket was required at all. U.S. export controls on radioisotope technology mean any payload carrying them must launch on a domestic vehicle, which narrowed the field to SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. Falcon Heavy’s pricing made it the practical choice.
SpaceX is quietly becoming the U.S. Military’s only reliable rocket
Falcon Heavy debuted in February 2018 and has 11 launches to its record. The rocket has not flown since October 2024, when it sent NASA’s Europa Clipper toward Jupiter. The three-core design, built from modified Falcon 9 first stages, gives it the lift capacity needed for deep space planetary missions that a single Falcon 9 cannot reach.
The Rosalind Franklin rover has been sitting in storage in Europe for years. It was originally due to launch in 2022 as a joint mission with Russia, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended that partnership, leaving the rover built but stranded without a launch vehicle or landing hardware. NASA stepped back in through a 2024 agreement with ESA to rescue the mission. The rover is designed to drill up to two meters below the Martian surface in search of evidence of past life, a science objective no previous mission has attempted at that depth.
The contradiction at the center of this story is hard to ignore. The White House’s fiscal year 2027 budget proposal included no funding for ROSA and did not mention the mission at all in the detailed congressional justification document released April 3.
Musk has long argued that reaching Mars is not optional. “We don’t want to be one of those single planet species, we want to be a multi-planet species.” Whether this particular mission survives Washington’s budget fight, the Falcon Heavy contract means SpaceX is now formally on record as the rocket that could get humanity’s next Mars science mission off the ground.
The timing of this contract carries extra weight given that SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC in early April and is targeting an IPO roadshow in the week of June 8. It would be the largest public offering in history.
ARK’s SpaceX IPO Guide makes a compelling case on why $1.75T may not be the ceiling
Ford CEO Farley says Tesla is not who to look at for EV expertise
