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Tesla delivers its 200,000th car, triggering the EV tax credit phase-out period
Tesla has delivered its 200,000th vehicle this month, triggering the phase-out period of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles offered in the United States.
As seen on Tesla’s official Electric Vehicle Incentives page, the phase-out period for the $7,500 federal tax credit is in effect for all Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles delivered on or before December 31, 2018, while buyers taking delivery in 2019 will only be eligible for a subset of that original $7,500 credit. Customers taking delivery between January 1 to June 30, 2019 will be eligible for a $3,750 federal tax credit, or half of the full amount before phase-out. Those taking delivery in the second half of 2019, between July 1 to December 31, 2019 will be eligible for a $1,875 federal tax credit.
The federal credit applied to new electric vehicles, dubbed by the IRS as the Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D), affects all EVs that were acquired after December 31, 2009. The credit, which took effect during the previous administration as a means to encourage drivers to adopt zero-emissions vehicles, featured a tiered credit, starting at $2,500 and going all the way up to $7,500 depending on the battery capacity of an electric car. The IRS’ official website describes how the sale of a manufacturer’s 200,000th electric car triggers the tax credit phase-out period.
“The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (‘phase-out period’).”
Tesla actually played its cards cleverly with regards to the $7,500 tax credit phase-out. Being a car company that exclusively manufactures electric cars, it was inevitable that the company would be the first automaker to hit the 200,000 mark. By reaching this milestone shortly after the second quarter, Tesla actually gave itself, as well as its customers, an additional 18 months to obtain any sort of credit. the $7,500 credit remains in effect for the whole quarter in which the 200,000th vehicle was delivered, as well as the quarter after.
After this point, the credit gets reduced by 50% to $3,750 for two quarters. In Tesla’s case, this corresponds to Q1 and Q2 2019. From Q3 and Q4 2019, Tesla’s vehicles will still be eligible for a tax credit, though it would be reduced to $1,875 by this time. Tesla’s electric cars produced from January 2020 moving forward will not be eligible for tax credits anymore.
In a way, Tesla’s timing for hitting the 200,000 mark appears to be strategic. The company, after all, just recently managed to attain its goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of Q2 2018. Signs from the company, such as test drives for the Model 3, massive batches of new VINs filed one after another, and a new 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery system, all seem designed to deliver as many of the electric cars to customers as fast as possible.
If there is a group of reservation holders that would feel the effect of the credit phase-out, however, it would be those holding out for the Standard Range RWD Model 3, which starts at $35,000. In a Twitter update, Elon Musk stated that Tesla would likely start the production of the base Model 3’s smaller battery pack by the end of 2018. From there, Musk noted that volume production for the vehicle would probably begin in Q1 2019.
In a meeting with investors and analysts this past Tuesday, Tesla’s Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew reportedly stated that the company is aiming to sustain its 5,000 per week pace for Q3 2018, increasing output to 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018. By mid-2019, Tesla expects to produce 10,000 Model 3 per week, which corresponds to an output of 500,000 vehicles per year.
If Tesla manages to sustain its 5,000 Model 3 per week rate from August to September 2018, and achieve a steady rate of 7,000 vehicles per week from October 2018 to June 2019 (assuming no production ramps happen within these months), the company would be able to produce 292,000 Model 3. With a 10,000 per week rate from July to December 2019, Tesla would be able to deliver an additional 240,000 more. Thus, if Tesla plays its cards right and ramps the Model 3 in a manner that is careful and precise, it could deliver as many as 532,000 cars that are still eligible for federal credit (albeit the $3,750 and $1,875 credit). Considering that the backlog of 420,000 remaining Model 3 orders are from customers across the globe, there is a good chance that all present reservation holders in the United States would be able to get a credit for their vehicle.
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Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility.
The Tesla Cybercab could very well be the safest taxi on the road when it is released and deployed for public use. This was, at least, hinted at by the intensive safety tests that Tesla seems to be putting the autonomous two-seater through at its Giga Texas crash test facility.
Intensive crash tests
As per recent images from longtime Giga Texas watcher and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla seems to be very busy crash testing Cybercab units. Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility just before the holidays.
Tegtmeyer’s aerial photos showed the prototypes clustered outside the factory’s testing building. Some uncovered Cybercabs showed notable damage and one even had its airbags engaged. With Cybercab production expected to start in about 130 days, it appears that Tesla is very busy ensuring that its autonomous two-seater ends up becoming the safest taxi on public roads.
Prioritizing safety
With no human driver controls, the Cybercab demands exceptional active and passive safety systems to protect occupants in any scenario. Considering Tesla’s reputation, it is then understandable that the company seems to be sparing no expense in ensuring that the Cybercab is as safe as possible.
Tesla’s focus on safety was recently highlighted when the Cybertruck achieved a Top Safety Pick+ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). This was a notable victory for the Cybertruck as critics have long claimed that the vehicle will be one of, if not the, most unsafe truck on the road due to its appearance. The vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating, if any, simply proved that Tesla never neglects to make its cars as safe as possible, and that definitely includes the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Monday that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) could launch in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as January 2026.
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Musk’s estimate
In a post on X, UAE-based political analyst Ahmed Sharif Al Amiri asked Musk when FSD would arrive in the country, quoting an earlier post where the CEO encouraged users to try out FSD for themselves. Musk responded directly to the analyst’s inquiry.
“Hopefully, next month,” Musk wrote. The exchange attracted a lot of attention, with numerous X users sharing their excitement at the idea of FSD being brought to a new country. FSD (Supervised), after all, would likely allow hands-off highway driving, urban navigation, and parking under driver oversight in traffic-heavy cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Musk’s comments about FSD’s arrival in the UAE were posted following his visit to the Middle Eastern country. Over the weekend, images were shared online of Musk meeting with UAE Defense Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. Musk also posted a supportive message about the country, posting “UAE rocks!” on X.
FSD recognition
FSD has been getting quite a lot of support from foreign media outlets. FSD (Supervised) earned high marks from Germany’s largest car magazine, Auto Bild, during a test in Berlin’s challenging urban environment. The demonstration highlighted the system’s ability to handle dense traffic, construction sites, pedestrian crossings, and narrow streets with smooth, confident decision-making.
Journalist Robin Hornig was particularly struck by FSD’s superior perception and tireless attention, stating: “Tesla FSD Supervised sees more than I do. It doesn’t get distracted and never gets tired. I like to think I’m a good driver, but I can’t match this system’s all-around vision. It’s at its best when both work together: my experience and the Tesla’s constant attention.” Only one intervention was needed when the system misread a route, showcasing its maturity while relying on vision-only sensors and over-the-air learning.
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Tesla quietly flexes FSD’s reliability amid Waymo blackout in San Francisco
“Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla highlighted its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system’s robustness this week by sharing dashcam footage of a vehicle in FSD navigating pitch-black San Francisco streets during the city’s widespread power outage.
While Waymo’s robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams, Tesla’s vision-only approach kept operating seamlessly without remote intervention. Elon Musk amplified the clip, highlighting the contrast between the two systems.
Tesla FSD handles total darkness
The @Tesla_AI account posted a video from a Model Y operating on FSD during San Francisco’s blackout. As could be seen in the video, streetlights, traffic signals, and surrounding illumination were completely out, but the vehicle drove confidently and cautiously, just like a proficient human driver.
Musk reposted the clip, adding context to reports of Waymo vehicles struggling in the same conditions. “Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk and the Tesla AI team’s posts highlight the idea that FSD operates a lot like any experienced human driver. Since the system does not rely on a variety of sensors and a complicated symphony of factors, vehicles could technically navigate challenging circumstances as they emerge. This definitely seemed to be the case in San Francisco.
Waymo’s blackout struggles
Waymo faced scrutiny after multiple self-driving Jaguar I-PACE taxis stopped functioning during the blackout, blocking lanes, causing traffic jams, and requiring manual retrieval. Videos shared during the power outage showed fleets of Waymo vehicles just stopping in the middle of the road, seemingly confused about what to do when the lights go out.
In a comment, Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.”
A company spokesperson also shared some thoughts about the incidents. “Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”
Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE
