Investor's Corner

Tesla registers another strong batch of Model 3 VINs as Musk sees end to production hell

Just a day after registering more than 6,000 new Model 3 Dual Motor AWD vehicle identification numbers, Tesla has filed for another batch of 2,226 VINs for the compact electric car. With this latest filing, Tesla has registered 15,430 Model 3 for July so far, bringing the total number of registrations to 71,827.

The newest batch of filings comes at a time when Tesla is hard at work attempting to prove that it can sustain the “burst” rate for the Model 3 the company displayed during the final seven days of Q2 2018, when 5,000 of the vehicles were produced in one week. While the electric car maker managed to hit its Model 3 production targets for the second quarter, doubts about the company’s capability to maintain its optimal levels of production caused Tesla’s stock to plummet.

 

While doubts about the company’s capability to effectively scale the Model 3’s production are understandable, recent signs from Tesla indicate that the present quarter would end with far better figures than that of Q2 2018. In a statement to Bloomberg Businessweek, Elon Musk admitted that while the past year has been very challenging, he remains optimistic about the company’s chances for the coming year.  

“The past year has been very difficult, but I feel like the coming year is going to be really quite good. (We) still (have) one foot in hell. Manufacturing hell will be over in a month,” Musk said.

Musk’s latest statement comes amid reports from the Tesla community stating that the automaker’s investor relation team headed by Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew held a meeting with investors and analysts last Tuesday. According to reports, Chew gave some new updates on the Model 3’s production, stating that GA3 is currently running at 4,000 vehicles per week while GA4, which is set up in a sprung structure on Fremont’s grounds, is producing 1,000 cars weekly.

Chew also reportedly stated that Tesla is expecting GA3 to ramp to 5,000 Model 3 per week while keeping GA4 at 1,000 weekly by the end of July. With this setup, Tesla would be producing 6,000 vehicles per week, but realistically sustaining a 5,000 a week rate for the rest of Q3 2018. From this point, Tesla would be ramping the Model 3’s production at a deliberate pace, targeting 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018 and 10,000 per week by mid-2019.

Considering Tesla’s targets for the coming years, the company must be able to tick off the Model 3’s manufacturing from its to-do list. Tesla, after all, has a long list of projects ahead, including the recently-announced Gigafactory 3 in China, the Model Y, the Tesla Semi, the next-gen Roadster, Gigafactory 4 in Europe, and the Tesla Truck. If Tesla is to finish all these projects, it would have to start earning revenue from the Model 3; and for this to happen, the production of the vehicle must be fully optimized.

With Elon Musk’s estimates that production hell is ending in a month, however, together with Andrew Chew’s statement to investors regarding the Model 3’s sustained production rate for Q3 2018, Tesla could very well end the year with enough momentum to start 2019 on a strong note.

Tesla registers another strong batch of Model 3 VINs as Musk sees end to production hell

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