Walter Isaacson’s Elon Musk biography is set to be published on Tuesday, and a new preview of the book illustrates details about Tesla’s development of the upcoming Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12.
In an additional preview of his Musk biography for CNBC, Isaacson discusses the use of AI in the development of Tesla’s FSD v12, in a shift that took place within the last several months. Isaacson talks about Tesla’s recent development of the upcoming FSD v12, which he and Tesla demonstrate has moved away from a “rules-based” approach.
Notably, FSD v12 is expected to use billions of video frames from real-world driving incidents to train its neural network rather than using thousands of lines of code like previous versions. In a conversation with Musk last December, Tesla Autopilot employee Dhaval Shroff had likened the concept to the popular chatbot ChatGPT, instead for use with driving.
“It’s like ChatGPT, but for cars,” Shroff said. “We process an enormous amount of data on how real human drivers acted in a complex driving situation, and then we train a computer’s neural network to mimic that.”
Surprisingly enough, Tesla only shifted toward this “neural network planner” approach recently. By the beginning of this year, however, the neural network had already analyzed 10 million video clips based on the best-case-scenario drivers the system had access to. Musk instructed employees at the company’s Buffalo, New York facility who were in charge of analyzing the footage to train the AI on things “a five-star Uber driver would do.”
Moving from a rules-based to a network-path-based AI approach allowed FSD to use human driving data to avoid obstacles, even if breaking some rules was necessary. Shroff helped demonstrate the idea to Musk with a demo featuring trash bins, debris, and upturned traffic cones, which the car handled surprisingly well.
“Here’s what happens when we move from rules-based to network-path-based,” Shroff explained. “The car will never get into a collision if you turn this thing on, even in unstructured environments.”
Musk quickly took to the idea, as can be seen in a recent livestream of Tesla’s FSD v12 software in Palo Alto with Autopilot software director Ashok Elluswamy. He has repeatedly spoken about the upcoming software version’s impressive driving results, despite one small moment in the drive where the car almost ran a red light.
In any case, Musk could argue that the red-light moment is a good case for the need for self-driving software to continually learn. Given that it will constantly be trained from the video data generated by camera footage from real-world drivers, it should theoretically make it safer over time, according to Musk.
During development, Musk also reportedly latched onto the fact that it took over a million video clips for the neural network to begin performing well, though he looks forward to what significantly more data will do for FSD.
Still, critics and regulators have expressed concerns about the faults of human drivers training AI-based driving systems, and Tesla has repeatedly been questioned by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) about its Autopilot and FSD beta systems.
According to Isaacson, Tesla plans to release FSD v12 as soon as regulators approve it. Meanwhile, an ongoing study by the National Highway Safety Board is looking to determine if self-driving cars should be permitted to imitate human driving actions that blur traffic rules, such as creeping up at stop signs.
Musk said in April that he expects Tesla to reach full autonomy within a year, though he has also been known to share ambitious targets for the software in the past.
You can read Walter Isaacson’s full account of the development of Tesla FSD v12 here, in a CNBC preview of the upcoming Elon Musk biography.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
