Update: 4/29 6:02 pm est – Added comment from Troy Teslike, starts para. 4
The volume of Tesla inventory vehicles in Europe has spiked to its highest point this year, indicating the potential for another price cut.
Tesla has been finding a lot of success in the European market ever since it introduced its Model Y SUV to the continent, which has quickly become not only Tesla’s top seller in the region but the top-sold vehicle in many of Europe’s largest economies. Despite this success, Tesla saw a slight but noticeable decline in sales in the European market during the year’s first quarter. Now, trouble seems to continue for the American EV brand, which now sees a record number of inventoried vehicles in Europe.
The revelation regarding Tesla’s European inventory spike was posted on Twitter by Troy Teslike, who tracks Tesla sales and production.
Here is a chart that shows Tesla’s inventory in Europe over time (cars listed for sale on Tesla’s website): https://t.co/xbjD6sh8wm Supply is not an issue anymore. Therefore Q2 sales should give us a clear picture of demand
Europe sales:
• 94,819 in Q4 2022
• 93,784 in Q1 2023 pic.twitter.com/BxQm2bJX4P— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) April 28, 2023
The results posted on Twitter show that Tesla has reached well above its record high for the year, primarily with units of Model 3s and Model Ys. However, a surprising number of Model Ss and Model Xs also seem to be accumulating.
In a comment to Teslarati, Troy Teslike laid out a couple of reasons Tesla may be experiencing a buildup of units in Europe. “I think the inventory buildup in Europe suggests a shift from being production-limited to demand-limited,” Teslike begins. “However, this doesn’t mean deliveries will be affected. It just means production exceeds demand.”
Teslike then points out that, thanks to Tesla’s continuing massive production ramp, a buildup of inventoried units has been slowly but surely creeping up on the automaker. “Tesla’s global production was higher than deliveries in the last four quarters. That resulted in an increase in inventory. Most of that inventory build-up happened in Europe.”
Tesla’s inventory at the end of Q1 was equal to 15 days of supply based on page 6 of Tesla’s shareholder letter https://t.co/n3wXWLqrHl Here is how that compares to other quarters.
Production was higher than deliveries in the last 4 quarters. pic.twitter.com/s5zc5s9Kgp
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) April 28, 2023
Concluding his statement, Teslike points to a specific source, Tesla Giga Shanghai. Thanks to Shanghai’s incredible production output, and Tesla’s uphill battle in China, excess units are ending up in Europe, but, according to Teslike, this may not be a bad thing. With added volume on the continent, the American automaker will be able to address demand quicker than ever, the only question is, will it be able to garner the necessary demand?
This strange inventory anomaly has attracted countless analysts besides Teslike, looking to find the stem of the issue. Does it stem from slowing demand for Tesla vehicles? Is it indicative of a slowing EV segment more generally? Is this issue just a symptom of more significant regional macroeconomic problems? Or, for the optimists, is this sudden spike even something worthy of concern?
It goes without saying that Europe, much like many other Western markets, has seen a good deal of economic turbulence in the first half of the year, including persistent high living costs, high inflation, and even the potential for bank collapse, however considering the success of other EV makers, this factor is unlikely the sole contributor.
Furthermore, with the dramatic uptick in EV sales seen at brands like Porsche, BMW, and Mercedes, it would be hard to believe that Tesla’s offerings suffer from a lack of affordability, especially as they already undercut these competitors by a substantial margin.
It should be noted that competition within the EV market, particularly in Europe, has gotten quite fierce with the entrance of countless new offerings, not only from the aforementioned luxury competitors of Tesla but also from Volkswagen, Renault, Peugeot, and Ford; brands that are all reasonably successful within the European affordable vehicle market outside of EV sales.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it clear that Tesla’s pricing strategy, attempting to continue to lower prices to attract more customers, will continue well into the future. However, considering the current round of price cuts has still resulted in a record spike in inventory, it remains unclear if this will be the fix Tesla is looking for.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
