Investor's Corner
Tesla seems to be preparing the Model 3 for a 6,000/week production push
As Tesla heads towards its Q2 2018 financial results and earnings call, the electric car maker seems to be showing signs that it is gearing up for yet another significant Model 3 production push.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek earlier this month, Elon Musk described the Model 3 ramp as a “bet-the-company” situation — a scenario in which the vehicle’s failure would equate to Tesla’s likely collapse. It was a risky gamble, and it gave Musk what he called “permanent mental scar tissue,” but with the company’s milestone at the end of Q2 2018, when it managed to produce 5,000 Model 3 per week, the end of Tesla’s manufacturing hell appears to be within reach.
To fully get out of production hell, Tesla would need to manufacture the Model 3 at scale and at a sustainable rate — a feat that has proven incredibly challenging for the electric car maker. Over the first half of July, signs were abounding that Tesla was once more defying the odds and maintaining its optimum manufacturing rate for the electric car, with mass sightings of Model 3 being transported, test drives for the vehicle being offered, and mass VIN registrations numbering more than 19,000 being filed in a two-week period. If Bloomberg‘s ever-evolving Model 3 tracker is any indication, however, Tesla’s production rate for the electric car appears to have tapered down recently.
While the recent production drop suggested in Bloomberg‘s tracker might appear negative, the publication’s model also forecasts an upcoming spike in Model 3 production. As of writing, a projection for the next few weeks points to Tesla manufacturing 6,000 Model 3 per week. Over the past few months, these instances of slowdowns followed by sudden bursts that reach record production levels have happened several times. In Q2, shutdowns of the Model 3 line corresponded to the installation of upgrades that gave Tesla the capacity to produce more vehicles than before.
Back in April, Tesla shut down the production of the Model 3 to roll out improvements that enabled the company to hit a manufacturing rate of 3,000-4,000 vehicles per week. In May, another set of upgrades were installed that allowed Tesla to get closer to its then-elusive target of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week. Based on the rationale behind Tesla’s previous production shutdowns, it appears that the electric car maker could be in the process of improving the capacity of its Model 3 line once more.
In a way, the slowdown in production reflected in Bloomberg‘s tracker was teased in Tesla Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew’s meeting with investors and analysts earlier this month. During the meeting, Chew reportedly noted that Tesla is aiming to hit a sustainable production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 for the rest of the third quarter. After this point, Tesla’s ramp for the vehicle would be less radical, with the company reportedly targeting a pace of 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018, and 10,000 Model 3 per week by mid-2019. Chew also reportedly noted that Tesla’s GA3 assembly line was only running at ~4,000 vehicles per week at the end of Q2 2018, and that the company was only able to hit its 5,000 Model 3 per week target because of an extra ~1,000 vehicles that were manufactured from GA4. Thus, Tesla’s recent slowdown in Model 3 production could correspond to the installation of upgrades for GA3 that would allow it to produce a steady rate of 5,000, or even 6,000 vehicles per week on its own. If these assumptions prove correct, Bloomberg‘s forecast pointing to a 6,000 Model 3 production week definitely becomes plausible.
Tesla is currently attempting to hit profitability this third quarter. To accomplish this goal, the Model 3’s production has to be optimized. Teardowns of the vehicle, both from Germany and in the United States have been unanimous in the conclusion that the Model 3 is profitable. Detroit’s Sandy Munro even noted that the Long Range RWD version of the vehicle could give Tesla as much as 36% worth of profits. At this point, the only thing standing between Tesla and profitability is its capability to scale and sustain the Model 3’s production. If the company achieves this, it would likely prove to be a hard-fought victory for Elon Musk and the Tesla team.
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Elon Musk
The real reason Elon Musk wants every car connected to space
Elon Musk says all cars will eventually need Starlink to handle massive AI bandwidth demand.
Elon Musk is making the case that satellite internet, not fiber or cellular towers, will end up wired into every car on the road. In a string of posts on X, the SpaceX CEO wrote that all cars will have Starlink in the future and called satellite connectivity the only way to get super high bandwidth to billions of vehicles.
The posts started with Musk endorsing a Cloudflare forecast that traffic generated by autonomous AI agents will soon dwarf traffic generated by humans browsing the internet, a shift he described as not a close call at all. From there he narrowed the argument to infrastructure, writing that the only system that can support the insanely fast bandwidth growth needed by AI is Starlink, before extending the logic to cars specifically.
AI agentic Internet traffic will obviously VASTLY exceed human usage. Not a close call at all.
Cloudflare’s forecast is accurate. https://t.co/VztgrinN5k pic.twitter.com/Wo4FiRKjPU
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 9, 2026
The timing lines up with Tesla’s own hardware decisions. On July 20, Tesla confirmed the Cybercab would ship with a Starlink V5 terminal built into its roof, the first time the company had put satellite hardware in a production vehicle. A day later, Tesla’s head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, explained the connection wasn’t there for safety and that Cybercab’s driving stack runs entirely on onboard cameras and compute, while the satellite link exists for navigation, customer service, and fleet management instead. Musk followed with his own post about the feature, saying riders would be able to watch 4K streaming video during rides.
By July 22, Musk had already said Starlink would extend beyond Cybercab to Tesla’s full lineup. Sunday’s posts push that same logic outward again, this time framed as a requirement across the industry rather than a feature specific to Tesla, and tied directly to the bandwidth AI systems are expected to consume.
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
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The AI argument has been building on SpaceX’s side for months. The company has an FCC filing pending for a third generation Starlink constellation, and it has separately proposed Starmind, a constellation of up to a million satellites designed to run AI computation directly in orbit rather than just relay data. Musk has said he expects space to become the cheapest place to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Starlink and Starmind serve different jobs inside that vision, one moving data and the other processing it, but Sunday’s posts treat vehicles as one more category of hardware that will eventually need both.
None of this changes anything for Tesla owners today. Cars already on the road keep running on LTE and Wi-Fi, and Tesla hasn’t outlined a retrofit path for existing vehicles. The July 22 commitment applies to future production, not the fleet already delivered. What Musk added on Sunday is the reasoning: satellite connectivity isn’t a Cybercab novelty, it’s a bet that ground based networks won’t keep up with how much data cars, robots, and AI systems are about to generate.
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck production snaps back after ugly supplier fight
Cybertrucks are piling up again at Giga Texas after Tesla’s court win against a parts supplier.
Cybertruck production at Giga Texas is showing its first visible recovery since Tesla sued a supplier last month over withheld manufacturing tooling.
Aerial observer Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the Austin factory Wednesday morning and counted roughly 100 or more Cybertrucks filling the outbound lot, a sharp jump from the thin numbers seen in recent weeks. The flyover came a day after a judge granted Tesla a temporary restraining order against Angstrom Automotive Group, the parts supplier at the center of the dispute.
Tesla filed an emergency lawsuit in late July after Angstrom told the automaker it planned to close the Troy, Texas facility where Tesla’s die-cast tools, trim dies and other Cybertruck stamping equipment were housed. According to Tesla’s complaint, a shipment of 700 finished parts never left the building, and when Tesla sent representatives to retrieve its equipment, accompanied by law enforcement, they were turned away. Angstrom allegedly then asked for an extra $250,000 a week to keep operating, which Tesla’s filing described as holding its own property for ransom.
TESLA: U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Wolfe of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, Waco Division granted Tesla a Temporary Restraining Order and Writ of Replevin in its dispute with Angstrom Automotive (Case No. 6:26-cv-00477).
The order authorizes… https://t.co/E1DKcQSxMn pic.twitter.com/LR8aAiV2Og
— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) August 5, 2026
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The restraining order gives Tesla immediate right of entry to Angstrom’s facility to recover the tooling. It is temporary, with a fuller hearing still to come, but the speed of Wednesday’s rebound suggests the Angstrom shortage was indeed the main bottleneck limiting Cybertruck output. Outbound lot counts are an imperfect measure of actual production, since finished trucks can sit for days before shipping, but a lot that full after a lean stretch is a meaningful signal.
Cybertruck output at Giga Texas has fluctuated all year as Tesla worked through supply issues and introduced new trims, including a cheaper Dual Motor AWD version that drew strong early demand.
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