Investor's Corner
Tesla seems to be preparing the Model 3 for a 6,000/week production push
As Tesla heads towards its Q2 2018 financial results and earnings call, the electric car maker seems to be showing signs that it is gearing up for yet another significant Model 3 production push.
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek earlier this month, Elon Musk described the Model 3 ramp as a “bet-the-company” situation — a scenario in which the vehicle’s failure would equate to Tesla’s likely collapse. It was a risky gamble, and it gave Musk what he called “permanent mental scar tissue,” but with the company’s milestone at the end of Q2 2018, when it managed to produce 5,000 Model 3 per week, the end of Tesla’s manufacturing hell appears to be within reach.
To fully get out of production hell, Tesla would need to manufacture the Model 3 at scale and at a sustainable rate — a feat that has proven incredibly challenging for the electric car maker. Over the first half of July, signs were abounding that Tesla was once more defying the odds and maintaining its optimum manufacturing rate for the electric car, with mass sightings of Model 3 being transported, test drives for the vehicle being offered, and mass VIN registrations numbering more than 19,000 being filed in a two-week period. If Bloomberg‘s ever-evolving Model 3 tracker is any indication, however, Tesla’s production rate for the electric car appears to have tapered down recently.

While the recent production drop suggested in Bloomberg‘s tracker might appear negative, the publication’s model also forecasts an upcoming spike in Model 3 production. As of writing, a projection for the next few weeks points to Tesla manufacturing 6,000 Model 3 per week. Over the past few months, these instances of slowdowns followed by sudden bursts that reach record production levels have happened several times. In Q2, shutdowns of the Model 3 line corresponded to the installation of upgrades that gave Tesla the capacity to produce more vehicles than before.
Back in April, Tesla shut down the production of the Model 3 to roll out improvements that enabled the company to hit a manufacturing rate of 3,000-4,000 vehicles per week. In May, another set of upgrades were installed that allowed Tesla to get closer to its then-elusive target of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week. Based on the rationale behind Tesla’s previous production shutdowns, it appears that the electric car maker could be in the process of improving the capacity of its Model 3 line once more.
In a way, the slowdown in production reflected in Bloomberg‘s tracker was teased in Tesla Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew’s meeting with investors and analysts earlier this month. During the meeting, Chew reportedly noted that Tesla is aiming to hit a sustainable production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 for the rest of the third quarter. After this point, Tesla’s ramp for the vehicle would be less radical, with the company reportedly targeting a pace of 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018, and 10,000 Model 3 per week by mid-2019. Chew also reportedly noted that Tesla’s GA3 assembly line was only running at ~4,000 vehicles per week at the end of Q2 2018, and that the company was only able to hit its 5,000 Model 3 per week target because of an extra ~1,000 vehicles that were manufactured from GA4. Thus, Tesla’s recent slowdown in Model 3 production could correspond to the installation of upgrades for GA3 that would allow it to produce a steady rate of 5,000, or even 6,000 vehicles per week on its own. If these assumptions prove correct, Bloomberg‘s forecast pointing to a 6,000 Model 3 production week definitely becomes plausible.
Tesla is currently attempting to hit profitability this third quarter. To accomplish this goal, the Model 3’s production has to be optimized. Teardowns of the vehicle, both from Germany and in the United States have been unanimous in the conclusion that the Model 3 is profitable. Detroit’s Sandy Munro even noted that the Long Range RWD version of the vehicle could give Tesla as much as 36% worth of profits. At this point, the only thing standing between Tesla and profitability is its capability to scale and sustain the Model 3’s production. If the company achieves this, it would likely prove to be a hard-fought victory for Elon Musk and the Tesla team.
Investor's Corner
Elon Musk drops a Thanksgiving hint about Starship’s biggest test yet
Elon Musk says Starship Flight 15 will try to catch the ship itself, a first.
Elon Musk says SpaceX’s next Starship flight will try something nobody has done before, by catching the ship itself. Speaking to roughly 2,000 people at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas on Saturday, Musk said Flight 15 is about four to six weeks away and “probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving, is my guess.”
That is a slip from earlier reporting, which had pointed to a launch as early as October 19. Musk explained why the date keeps moving. “We’re making a bunch of improvements to the rocket between every flight,” he said, adding that there are often hundreds, sometimes thousands, of small changes. This time the list is short, “but some of them take a fair bit of work and we’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.”
“We’re going to try to catch the ship, which is a super big deal,” Musk said. “If we do so, that’ll be the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket.” SpaceX has already caught the Super Heavy booster with the tower’s mechanical arms, and has talked about catching the ship since late 2025, but the upper stage has never been caught.
Musk also laid out what comes after. “The next big milestone would be to refly both the booster and the ship,” he said, describing a Flight 16 where “all parts of an orbital rocket are reflown.”
The reason SpaceX wants this comes down to cost and cadence. Every Starship ship so far has ended its flight in the ocean, and SpaceX expects most of those water landings to end in fireballs. A ship that returns to Starbase intact can be inspected and flown again. SpaceX’s IPO filing, says Starship V3 is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to orbit in a fully reusable configuration, that SpaceX aims to cut the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more versus the historical average, and that tower catches should allow “multiple launches per day.”
The payoff goes beyond cheaper launches. The next generation Starlink V3 satellites are too large for Falcon 9 and can only fly on Starship, which can carry up to 60 per flight. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed the first 26 of them after Starship reached orbit despite an early engine shutdown, as Teslarati reported. Musk blamed engine computer software, and said the heat shield “was extremely robust,” which he claimed in August had solved Starship’s biggest challenge.
NASA’s Moon plans depend on the same capability. NASA’s inspector general has described a lander mission that needs a propellant depot in low Earth orbit and more than 10 tanker flights, with SpaceX targeting one tanker launch every six days. That schedule only works if ships and boosters come back fast and fly again. Also, ship to ship propellant transfer has not been attempted yet.
One interesting hurdle yet to be explored is bringing the ship back to the launch site, with reentry over land, which will undoubtedly come with a lot of aviation safety reviews.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions
SpaceX reveals plans for one million Starmind AI satellites and calls out operators hiding maneuvers.
SpaceX has put the largest satellite count it has ever published into writing, and it says that plan only works if every other operator in orbit starts sharing what it knows.
In a new Space Safety page highlighted Tuesday morning by Sawyer Merritt on X, SpaceX said it “plans to operate up to 100,000 Starlink satellites and up to 1 million Starmind AI satellites to meet the growing demand for broadband and supercompute.” Starlink has a little over 11,000 satellites in orbit today, so the target alone implies roughly a ninefold expansion of the broadband network.
Starmind is SpaceX’s orbital AI compute constellation. Elon Musk confirmed the Starmind name in June after an xAI trademark filing surfaced, and in August SpaceX said it was working with Nvidia on the compute payload. The FCC accepted the filing for up to one million satellites back in February.
FCC accepts SpaceX filing for 1 million orbital data center plan
SpaceX also released a new render of what a full Starmind constellation could look like. Alongside it, SpaceX VP Michael Nicolls explained why the satellites will not operate on their own. “We need to operate clusters of satellites in tight formation to get enough coherent compute to run AI models efficiently,” Nicolls said. “A cluster will be 10-ish satellites connected with 10 terabits or so of bandwidth between them, and interconnected to the broader constellation.”
That is the most specific detail SpaceX has given on how Starmind will be built. Instead of a million independent servers, the network would work as tightly packed groups of about 10 satellites acting as one compute unit, with Starlink’s laser links carrying results back to Earth.
There is a bright and exciting future for humanity ahead – and space is fundamental to that future.
To achieve this, space safety must be done right. We encourage every operator to not only share ephemeris data proactively the same way Starlink already does, but to also adopt the high standards of space safety that SpaceX and Starlink use every day → https://t.co/QizAkQZvEm
— Starlink (@Starlink) October 6, 2026
Packing satellites that close together, at that scale, makes collision avoidance the central problem, and most of the Space Safety page is aimed at other operators. SpaceX said Starlink encountered collision risks with about 650 unique maneuvering third party satellites in 2026, and only about half of them shared data. Over six months, Starlink recorded roughly 164,000 more collision risks where the closest approach came within four hours of an unannounced maneuver.
Some operators keep maneuver plans private over proprietary concerns, while others cannot get government permission to share them. SpaceX called those policies “counterproductive,” saying they “largely only serve to create preventable collision risk between satellites.” Starlink is also offering a free ephemeris sharing and screening platform that returns risk results within a minute, backed by its Stargaze network of 30,000 optical sensors.
The push comes as the Starmind application draws opposition from astronomers and environmental groups. In a September filing with the FCC, SpaceX said each Starmind satellite could weigh up to 4,000 kg, nearly seven times the mass of a Starlink V2 Mini. Musk has brushed off crowding concerns before, telling viewers in June that “space is enormous” and that SpaceX already knows how to run very large constellations safely.
SpaceX’s Starmind page says its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, is designed to produce AI satellites at scale, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027.
Investor's Corner
Tesla deliveries best Wall Street guesses alongside second-best energy quarter
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported strong delivery figures that beat Wall Street guesses, and they were revealed alongside the company’s second-best quarter in terms of energy deployments ever.
Tesla announced this morning that it delivered 486,532 cars in Q3, while producing 464,391, exceeding analyst consensus, which sat around 462,000 units.
Meanwhile, Tesla reported 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed for the quarter. That’s the second-best quarter Tesla has ever reported on that side of things.
🚨 Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, beating expectations at 464,391.
Big Q from the Tesla team, also 13.7 GWh of energy was deployed. pic.twitter.com/olioLWgG7a
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 2, 2026
Vehicle Deliveries
Deliveries were strong, and it was another quarter when Tesla had the opportunity to outshine the Wall Street pundits who are quick to criticize and slow to give credit. Tesla saw a slight decrease in deliveries compared to Q3 2025, but Tesla still had the $7,500 EV Tax Credit to use to help incentivize consumers to pick an EV.
A small decrease of 2.1 percent is pretty telling because it shows Tesla does not need massive federal credits to convince consumers to purchase its vehicles.
It was also the company’s third-best performance all-time in terms of deliveries, trailing that of Q3 2025 with 497,099 deliveries and Q4 2024, when the company handed over 495,570 cars.
We reported several days ago that Tesla Showrooms across the United States were completely bare of inventory or unclaimed units. Many locations also removed Demo Drive units, which had been bought by customers looking to take delivery sooner.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
Energy Generation
Tesla’s Energy Generation performance in Q3 was also very strong, as the company deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage over the past three months. The only quarter when Tesla reported stronger energy deployment figures was Q4 2025, when 14.2 GWh of energy storage was deployed.
Tesla’s Q3 performance in energy generation has continued to grow each quarter, with the company increasing its deployments by ten-fold since Q3 2021, when just 1.3 GWh was deployed.
It is also nearly double what it was in Q3 2024, when the company reported 6.9 GWh. This is one of Tesla’s quickest-growing divisions, and it flies under the radar with fans and analysts, as many are focused on self-driving or the vehicles themselves.
Tesla Stock
Shares rose 5.07 percent to $372.06 at just after 10 a.m. on the East Coast. This is a rarity for Tesla after a strong delivery report, as positive news usually brings the stock down. Many quarters with extremely robust delivery reports have not been as kind to the Teslanaires of the world.