Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 in $35k base trim to start production ‘in the next 8 months’
Elon Musk’s prediction last July that the Model 3’s production hell is coming to an end seems to be ringing true. Tesla is currently in the final month of Q3 2018, and according to Musk in a letter to employees shared last Friday, the company is on the cusp of its “most amazing quarter” yet, as it prepares to build and deliver “more than twice as many cars” as it did in the second quarter.
The catalyst for Tesla’s growth is the Model 3. Dubbed by Elon Musk as a “bet-the-company” vehicle, the Model 3’s success or failure could dictate Tesla’s future. So far, though, the Model 3 has been performing well, being dubbed by auto sales tracking website GoodCarBadCar as the 5th best-selling passenger car in the United States last August. Tesla was able to achieve this despite producing only three variants of the electric car — the Long Range RWD, the Long Range AWD, and the AWD Performance version. The Model 3’s base trim, which is expected to cost $35,000 before any options, is still not being produced.
If Tesla plays its cards right, the $35,000 standard trim Model 3 could very well become a fossil-fuel car killer. At its price point, the base Model 3 becomes comparable in price to some of the United States’ best-selling passenger cars like the Toyota Camry, whose top-of-the-line XSE V6 trim is priced at $34,950. While the potential of the $35,000 Model 3 is vast, Tesla and even CEO Elon Musk have been quite conservative when releasing updates about the upcoming electric sedan.
That is, until now. Just recently, Worm Capital analysts Eric Markowitz and Dan Crowley published a post on the financial firm’s website outlining their insights on Tesla after a tour of Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s head of investor relations Martin Viecha facilitated the tour, while also provided some updates on the company’s upcoming projects. Among these projects was the $35,000 standard trim Model 3.
According to the analysts, they were informed that the Model 3’s base variant, which is equipped with a shorter-range battery, would likely start production “in the next 8 months.” With this statement in mind, it appears safe to infer that by April or Mar 2019, Tesla would be manufacturing the $35,000 base Model 3.
Contrary to an emerging Tesla bear thesis that demand for the Model 3 is declining, the analysts noted that the electric car maker is currently focused on selling higher-margin cars such as the Model 3 Performance and the Long Range AWD Model 3, where “demand continues to exceed what is being produced.” This is in line with Tesla head of sales Robin Ren’s statement in the Q2 2018 earnings call, when he noted that the company is seeing “more orders for the All-Wheel Drive dual-motor car and performance cars combined than the rear wheel drives.”
Back in June, Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided a rough estimate as to when the initial production of the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 would begin. Musk also noted that Tesla would likely start producing the vehicle’s smaller battery packs at the end of 2018.
“We will definitely offer a $35,000 version of the Model 3. And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery pack, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year. We would definitely honor that obligation, and we would do so right now if it were possible,” Musk said.
The recent timeline related by Martin Viecha covers and exceeds Q1 2019, considering that his estimated timeframe ends at either April or May next year. That being said, Tesla definitely appears to be getting ready for the rollout of the $35,000 base Model 3, as well as succeeding models like the standard-range AWD version. Once Tesla is manufacturing the full range of the Model 3’s variants, it would not be too surprising if the vehicle ends up dethroning best-selling passenger cars like the Toyota Camry in the United States.
The Tesla Model 3’s base variant has a 220-mile range, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 130 mph. The vehicle starts at $35,000 before any options.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands on
Elon Musk says SpaceX will feed engineering data into Grok’s next model, avoiding restricted material.
Elon Musk said Tuesday that SpaceX will feed its internal engineering data into the next major training run for Grok, the AI model now folded into SpaceX following February’s merger. In a post on X, Musk wrote that SpaceX’s “massive corpus of world-class engineering data,” excluding anything restricted under U.S. arms export law, will be added during supplemental training of what he called the “2T run,” a reference to a roughly two trillion parameter model that would nearly double the parameters behind the latest Grok 4.5 that’s rolling out.
SpaceX’s massive corpus of world-class engineering data (excluding material blocked by ITAR) will be added during supplemental training of the 2T run.
This will dramatically improve Grok’s engineering capabilities. https://t.co/BbQEViFByn
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 21, 2026
The excluded material that Musk is referring to would fall under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which restricts export of technical data tied to defense and space hardware. That likely rules out propulsion specifics for Merlin and Raptor engines along with guidance and control details for SpaceX’s launch vehicles, but leaves manufacturing knowledge, materials science, and Starlink hardware design on the table.
The announcement extends a pattern that has been building since SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut in June, when the company went public with Grok and xAI’s Colossus supercomputer folded into the pitch to investors.
Days after that listing, SpaceX closed its $60 billion all stock acquisition of coding startup Cursor, giving xAI both enterprise software distribution and a stream of real world developer data to train on. Grok 4.5 launched July 8 running partly on that Cursor training data, with Musk describing it as roughly comparable to Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 but faster and cheaper to run.
Feeding SpaceX’s own engineering data into the next AI model follows the same logic Musk has applied across xAI’s sister companies. Tesla supplies real world driving data and manufacturing expertise, X supplies conversational data, and now SpaceX supplies aerospace engineering data built up since 2002.
Musk did not give a release date for the upcoming AI model, referred to elsewhere as Grok 4.6. He has said the two trillion parameter run is in its final training phase and expected to wrap this week.
In a pointed message on X, Elon Musk warned that firms maintaining significant short positions in SpaceX over time face “very low” survival probability.
The statement comes amid post-IPO volatility for the rocket company, now trading under the ticker $SPCX.
The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026
Five weeks after what was described as the largest IPO in history, the stock had fallen roughly 30% from its peak above $2.6 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft and Amazon in market value. Short sellers celebrated gains of about $8.7 billion, but Musk’s reply underscores his long-term conviction.
The warning directly echoes a detailed bullish analysis arguing that Starship’s cost reductions could unlock a multi-trillion-dollar space economy. Projects ranging from solar power beamed from orbit and asteroid mining to orbital data centers and Mars terraforming were projected to create over $100 trillion in new market capitalization.
In this vision, SpaceX acts as the essential infrastructure provider, akin to AWS for cloud computing, capturing monopoly-like revenues from launches, crew transport, and data traffic across a rapidly expanding frontier.
This is far from the first time Musk has targeted short sellers. With Tesla, he has repeatedly framed persistent bears as destined for major losses. In July 2024, Musk declared that once Tesla achieves full autonomy and volume production of Optimus robots, “anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates,” referencing Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates’ reported short bets.
Elon Musk reveals what Tesla stock surge could do to Bill Gates
Earlier, in 2018, he taunted shorts that they had “about three weeks before their short position explodes,” a remark followed by sharp stock gains. Musk has also called short selling “value destroying” and once suggested it “should be illegal,” viewing it as betting against innovation and progress.
Critics often dismiss Musk’s optimism as hype, especially when near-term metrics like quarterly deliveries or stock fluctuations disappoint.
Yet his pattern remains consistent: framing short positions against his companies as fundamentally misjudging exponential technological leaps. For SpaceX shorts, the message is clear: betting against multi-planetary ambitions and the infrastructure monopoly they enable carries existential risk for the firms involved.
As Musk and supporters see it, the space economy’s upside dwarfs Earth-bound valuation models, making today’s dips temporary in a decades-long ascent.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke
Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.
SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.
Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.
The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.
Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.
SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.
Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands on
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