Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 in $35k base trim to start production ‘in the next 8 months’
Elon Musk’s prediction last July that the Model 3’s production hell is coming to an end seems to be ringing true. Tesla is currently in the final month of Q3 2018, and according to Musk in a letter to employees shared last Friday, the company is on the cusp of its “most amazing quarter” yet, as it prepares to build and deliver “more than twice as many cars” as it did in the second quarter.
The catalyst for Tesla’s growth is the Model 3. Dubbed by Elon Musk as a “bet-the-company” vehicle, the Model 3’s success or failure could dictate Tesla’s future. So far, though, the Model 3 has been performing well, being dubbed by auto sales tracking website GoodCarBadCar as the 5th best-selling passenger car in the United States last August. Tesla was able to achieve this despite producing only three variants of the electric car — the Long Range RWD, the Long Range AWD, and the AWD Performance version. The Model 3’s base trim, which is expected to cost $35,000 before any options, is still not being produced.
If Tesla plays its cards right, the $35,000 standard trim Model 3 could very well become a fossil-fuel car killer. At its price point, the base Model 3 becomes comparable in price to some of the United States’ best-selling passenger cars like the Toyota Camry, whose top-of-the-line XSE V6 trim is priced at $34,950. While the potential of the $35,000 Model 3 is vast, Tesla and even CEO Elon Musk have been quite conservative when releasing updates about the upcoming electric sedan.
That is, until now. Just recently, Worm Capital analysts Eric Markowitz and Dan Crowley published a post on the financial firm’s website outlining their insights on Tesla after a tour of Gigafactory 1. Tesla’s head of investor relations Martin Viecha facilitated the tour, while also provided some updates on the company’s upcoming projects. Among these projects was the $35,000 standard trim Model 3.
According to the analysts, they were informed that the Model 3’s base variant, which is equipped with a shorter-range battery, would likely start production “in the next 8 months.” With this statement in mind, it appears safe to infer that by April or Mar 2019, Tesla would be manufacturing the $35,000 base Model 3.
Contrary to an emerging Tesla bear thesis that demand for the Model 3 is declining, the analysts noted that the electric car maker is currently focused on selling higher-margin cars such as the Model 3 Performance and the Long Range AWD Model 3, where “demand continues to exceed what is being produced.” This is in line with Tesla head of sales Robin Ren’s statement in the Q2 2018 earnings call, when he noted that the company is seeing “more orders for the All-Wheel Drive dual-motor car and performance cars combined than the rear wheel drives.”
Back in June, Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided a rough estimate as to when the initial production of the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 would begin. Musk also noted that Tesla would likely start producing the vehicle’s smaller battery packs at the end of 2018.
“We will definitely offer a $35,000 version of the Model 3. And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery pack, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year. We would definitely honor that obligation, and we would do so right now if it were possible,” Musk said.
The recent timeline related by Martin Viecha covers and exceeds Q1 2019, considering that his estimated timeframe ends at either April or May next year. That being said, Tesla definitely appears to be getting ready for the rollout of the $35,000 base Model 3, as well as succeeding models like the standard-range AWD version. Once Tesla is manufacturing the full range of the Model 3’s variants, it would not be too surprising if the vehicle ends up dethroning best-selling passenger cars like the Toyota Camry in the United States.
The Tesla Model 3’s base variant has a 220-mile range, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 130 mph. The vehicle starts at $35,000 before any options.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) endured one of its sharpest single-day declines in years on July 23, tumbling approximately 14.5 percent and closing near $320 after opening the session around $374. The drop erased more than $140 billion in market value amid heavy trading volume and left the shares at multi-week lows.
The sell-off followed the company’s second-quarter 2026 results, released the previous evening. Tesla reported record revenue of $28.2 billion, up 26 percent year over year, driven by a Q2-record 480,126 vehicle deliveries. Energy storage deployments also rose strongly.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Yet profitability disappointed sharply. Operating income fell 57 percent to $398 million, compressing the operating margin to just 1.4 percent. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.33, well below the roughly $0.53 analysts had expected. Free cash flow turned negative by $1.1 billion as capital expenditures surged 142 percent to $5.8 billion, largely tied to accelerated spending on artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems.
The losses on capex were expected, as Tesla said it would be spending heavily in 2026.
Investors also reacted to lingering uncertainty surrounding key product timelines. During the Earnings Call, management reiterated ambitions for Robotaxi deployment and the Optimus humanoid robot, but offered limited new concrete milestones, renewing questions about execution pace that have long accompanied Tesla’s ambitious roadmap.
The magnitude of the decline places it among Tesla’s more severe one-day percentage losses since its 2010 initial public offering. Historically, the two largest single-day drops (split-adjusted) remain September 8, 2020, when shares fell 21.1 percent amid broader market volatility and valuation concerns, and January 13, 2012, with a 19.3 percent plunge during the company’s early growth struggles.
Other notable declines include an 18.6 percent drop on March 16, 2020, at the onset of pandemic-related market turmoil. Thursday’s move ranks roughly ninth on the all-time list but stands out as the steepest in more than a year.
Despite the short-term pain, Tesla’s long-term trajectory has repeatedly recovered from such volatility. The latest results underscore both the strength of its core automotive and energy businesses and the near-term costs of heavy investment in next-generation technologies.
In a striking revelation that underscores the lucrative crossover between Big Tech and space exploration, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, disclosed a massive $94.1 billion equity stake in SpaceX following the rocket company’s blockbuster initial public offering earlier this year.
The disclosure came in Alphabet’s quarterly filing, marking the first time the long-held private investment has been publicly valued at market prices. Google was an early backer, investing alongside Fidelity in 2015 with roughly $500-900 million at a time when SpaceX was valued around $12 billion.
That bet has delivered extraordinary returns, roughly a hundredfold, transforming a strategic play on satellite internet and launch capabilities into one of Alphabet’s largest assets.
Google, $GOOGL, has said they hold $94 billion in SpaceX, $SPCX, shares after IPO.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 23, 2026
Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.
The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.
Analysts view the disclosure as validation of Alphabet’s venture strategy beyond its core search and cloud businesses. The investment aligns with deeper ties, including reported multi-billion-dollar deals for AI computing capacity on SpaceX infrastructure. As SpaceX advances Starship flights, Starlink expansion, and ambitious Mars goals under Elon Musk, Google’s stake positions it to benefit from the commercialization of space.
For Alphabet, the windfall highlights how patient, forward-looking bets in transformative sectors can yield outsized rewards. While lockups temper short-term impact, the holding cements SpaceX as a cornerstone of Alphabet’s diversified portfolio in an era where aerospace, AI, and connectivity increasingly intersect. Investors will watch closely as restrictions lift and SpaceX’s public performance unfolds.
Elon Musk
Tesla Semi finally has an FSD timeline and it’s waiting on the Cybercab
Elon Musk told investors Semi self-driving should start working by early 2027, per today’s earnings.
During Wednesday’s’ Tesla Q2 earnings call, an analyst asked Elon Musk when Tesla would look at autonomy for the Semi. His answer set a real timeline for the first time, noting that self-driving on the Tesla Semi is expected to start working “around the end of this year or early next year”.
Musk framed the delay as a matter of priority, not capability. Tesla’s self-driving team is currently focused on Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab, the vehicles that make up the overwhelming majority of Tesla’s fleet. Since Semi trucks on the road remain a small fraction of that total even after the recent Nevada factory ramp, Musk said it made more sense to keep the software team’s attention on what he called “the march of nines of safety” for the higher volume vehicles first. Autonomous Semi development is “taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so,” he said, before adding that it “will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi.”
Tesla Semi’s official battery capacity leaked by California regulators
The timeline lines up with what’s already been showing up on public roads. In June, a Tesla Semi was spotted in Sunnyvale wearing a full validation rig, the same rooftop sensor array Tesla mounts on vehicles ahead of an FSD milestone.
A second unit was seen near Fremont days later with a matching camera suite and lens washers. Separately, Tesla analyst Nic Cruz Patane posted video this month of the production Semi’s exterior camera array, ten AI4 based units built directly into the truck rather than added later.
Tesla Semi AI4 cameras. The production version has 10 cameras on its exterior.
These trucks are designed to be autonomous. pic.twitter.com/GH3BamxIBQ
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) April 14, 2026
Musk also gave the reason autonomy on the Semi matters in the first place, a persistent shortage of qualified truck drivers. “There is a really serious shortage of truckers,” he said on the call, framing a self-driving Semi as important both for addressing that shortage and for improving safety and comfort for the drivers running the truck today.
The timing also tracks with the Semi’s production reality. Tesla’s Q2 shareholder letter, dropped language promising the Semi would reach volume production this year. Musk pointed to 4680 battery cell output as the near-term constraint on Semi and Cybercab production. A software timeline landing in early 2027 gives Tesla’s autonomy team room to work while the hardware ramp catches up behind it.
It’s worth nothing that this isn’t necessarily a promise the Semi ships driverless next year. Musk’s own language, self-driving “working” by early 2027, describes internal validation catching up to hardware already riding on every production truck, not a public unsupervised rollout.
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