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Tesla Model 3 boldly defies sales slump in world's largest electric car market

Tesla's Made-in-China Model 3. (Credit: JayInShanghai/Twitter)

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Tesla is reportedly coming off of one of its most successful months in November 2019 as Chinese registrations of the company’s electric vehicles skyrocketed 14x compared to their numbers in October. The news of the dramatic spike in new-car registrations gives Tesla plenty of momentum as the first deliveries of its Gigafactory 3-produced Model 3 sedan are set to begin soon.

In November, Tesla registered a total of 5,597 cars in China, the highest monthly registrations it recorded since June. It should be noted that the company reportedly sold less than 400 cars in the country in November 2018, according to China Automotive Information Net. New vehicle registrations may not necessarily reflect Tesla’s exact sales numbers, but they do provide a valuable metric in tracking the company’s performance in the local electric car market.

Auto analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence Steve Man believed tariffs on U.S. manufactured vehicles set to take effect in December may have helped spike sales for Tesla. These tariffs are no longer set to take effect because the United States and China agreed to the initial phases of a trade agreement in mid-December.

(Credit: Bloomberg Intelligence)

Despite a slowing Chinese electric car market, Tesla continues to thrive. The next step for the company and its CEO Elon Musk is to begin deliveries of Model 3 vehicles that have been manufactured at its Shanghai production plant. The Made-in-China Model 3 will cost around $50,000, though government subsidies could knock about $3,500 off the price of the vehicle, according to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Demand for the Model 3 in China is recognizably high according to Musk. However, he sees the vehicle’s price will need to come down slightly for the company to be successful there. “It’s important to appreciate, the demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It’s just that people literally don’t have the money to buy the car. It’s got nothing to do with desire. They just don’t have enough money in the bank account. If the car can – if we made it more affordable, the demand is extraordinary,” Musk said back in May 2019.

Tesla’s potential in China is significant because of the overwhelming presence of battery-powered cars in the country. China is responsible for around 45% of the world’s electric car market, as per data from the International Energy Agency. This accounts for about 2.3 million battery-powered cars in the country in 2018. China’s growth in the electric car market is evident as well. In comparison, the second-largest global fleet of electric cars in the world last year was Europe, which accounted for 24% of the worldwide EV market. The United States follows with 22%.

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Musk has stated he expects Gigafactory 3 to produce around 3,000 vehicles a week and recognizes the advantages his company holds in China. “If you’re in the automotive industry you understand how significant this is, but maybe it’s not as obvious to everyone. Tesla has the first wholly-owned manufacturing facility in China of any automotive company. So, this is profound. And we’re very appreciative of the Chinese government allowing us to do this,” Musk said.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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SpaceX hit with mishap investigation by FAA for Starship Flight 9

Starship’s ninth test flight has the FAA requiring a mishap investigation from SpaceX.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX has been hit with yet another mishap investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) related to the company’s ninth test flight of Starship earlier this week.

The FAA said the mishap investigation is “focused only on the loss of the Starship vehicle, which did not complete its launch or reentry as planned.” The agency said the loss of the Super Heavy booster is covered by one of the FAA’s approved test induced damage exceptions requested by SpaceX.

All of Starship and Super Heavy booster debris landed within the designated hazard areas, the FAA confirmed.

SpaceX Starship Flight 9 recap: objectives & outcomes

It said it activated a Debris Response Area out of an abundance of caution as the booster “experienced its anomaly over the Gulf of America during its flyback toward Texas. The FAA subsequently determined the debris did not fall outside of the hazard area. During the event there were zero departure delays, one flight was diverted, and one airborne flight was held for 24 minutes. ”

SpaceX has become accustomed to mishap investigations by the FAA, as they have been impacted by them on several occasions in the past, including on Flight 8. However, they are a precautionary measure and usually are resolved within a few weeks.

Flight 9 was one of SpaceX’s most eventful, as there were several discoveries during the launch. First, it was SpaceX’s first time reusing a Super Heavy booster, as the one utilized for Flight 9 was also used on Flight 7 in January.

Contact with the booster and Starship were both lost during Flight 9. SpaceX said the booster was lost “shortly after the start of landing burn when it experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly approximately 6 minutes after launch.”

Meanwhile, Starship was set to make a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the vehicle was lost about 46 minutes into the flight, SpaceX said in a mission recap.

It was an improvement from the previous two flights, as both 7 and 8 resulted in the loss of Starship after just a few minutes. Flight 9 lasted considerably longer. These flights are also not intended to make it to Mars, despite what other reports might try to tell you.

These are ways to gain information for when SpaceX eventually tries to get Starship to Mars.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla’s apparent affordable model zips around Fremont test track

Tesla was zipping around a strange, covered, compact Model Y at Fremont this week.

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tesla affordable model prototype on fremont factory test track
Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube

Tesla was racing a compact, short, and stocky Model Y with front and rear end covers around its Fremont Factory’s test track today, potentially giving us a look at the upcoming affordable model.

On Thursday, Met God in the Wilderness on YouTube posted a flyover of the Fremont Factory, a weekly occurrence for the channel. This week’s video featured a smaller, more compact Model Y racing around the Test Track at Fremont, trailed by a Cybertruck:

While both bumpers are covered, it still seems to be a much more compact version of the Model Y. There is also the potential that this is the upcoming Model Y Performance, but it seems that this vehicle is smaller than the traditional Model Y. Tesla would not reduce its size this much for the Performance configuration.

With that, it seems more likely it is one of the affordable models.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

It also plays into the idea that Tesla is planning to launch vehicles very similar to the Model Y and Model 3. During the last Earnings Call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy stated that the affordable models the company planned to launch would be of the same form and factor as the Model Y, indicating potentially a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover:

“I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones.”

This was essentially a read-between-the-lines moment for investors as they took it as the affordable models would not be much different than the Model Y.

This vehicle seems to fit the bill of what Moravy described: it is eerily similar to the Model Y without the lengthened front and rear. While it is still tough to determine exactly what it is, it surely does look to be something that Tesla is keeping under wraps for the short term.

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