Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 drive unit production reportedly hits 10k/week amid end-of-Q3 push
Despite facing a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission about his “funding secured” tweet last August, Elon Musk appeared to be in light spirits on Friday, expressing his gratitude to the Tesla community for their help, at one point even posting a “Don’t Panic” reminder on his Twitter page. Musk reportedly rallied Tesla’s workers as well, stating that the company has achieved a notable milestone in its ongoing Model 3 ramp — the production of over 10,000 drive units in one week.
In a series of letters to employees following the release of the SEC’s lawsuit, Elon Musk reportedly urged Tesla’s workers to pay no attention to distractions. One of the letters, a copy of which was reportedly obtained by Bloomberg, stated that Tesla’s Model 3 drive team had produced “more than 10,000” units in a seven-day period. Musk reportedly praised the Tesla team as well, urging them to push through “one more hardcore weekend” as Q3 nears its close.
“You’re doing an incredible job. Ignore all distractions. One more hardcore weekend and we will be victorious,” Musk wrote.
And remember … pic.twitter.com/UaDUv4OlZf
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2018
-->The Model 3’s drive units are manufactured in Gigafactory 1, Tesla’s expansive facility in Nevada, which is also tasked with the production of the electric sedan’s batteries. The update on Gigafactory 1’s 10,000/week Model 3 drive unit production comes amidst news that Tesla’s battery partner Panasonic is aiming to complete three new battery cell assembly lines in the facility earlier than expected. This was related by Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business, who also noted that the bottlenecks in Gigafactory were primarily due to the Japanese company’s incapability to produce enough batteries to meet Tesla’s demand.
Panasonic’s new battery assembly lines are not the only upgrades set to be installed in Gigafactory 1. After a tour of the facility, analysts from Worm Capital stated that Tesla is also expecting the arrival of new machines from Grohmann Automation, all of which are designed to boost the facility’s production capabilities. During the Gigafactory 1 tour, Tesla head of investor relations Martin Viecha reportedly noted that the new Grohmann machines would help battery module production become “three times faster, and three times cheaper.” The new Grohmann machines are expected to be sent to Gigafactory 1 by the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4.
Tesla might be on track to produce and deliver a record number of Model 3 to reservation holders this quarter, but the ramp of the vehicle remains only partly complete. Ultimately, Tesla aims to produce as many as 10,000 units of the electric sedan per week, including the highly-anticipated $35,000 Standard Range RWD Model 3, which is expected to start production sometime in 2019. If the emails obtained by Bloomberg are accurate, then it would mean that Tesla’s Model 3 drive unit production has taken a definitive step forward.
Considering Tesla’s 10,000/week milestone with its Model 3 drive unit production, as well as the upcoming upgrades to Gigafactory 1 in the form of Panasonic’s new battery cell assembly lines and Grohmann’s new machines, Q4 2018 is shaping up to be a historic quarter for the electric car maker.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
Tesla is making a change to its exterior cameras with a potential upgrade
