Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 fever sweeps across Europe as China gears up for possible March deliveries
It took what Elon Musk could only describe as “excruciating” effort, but Tesla appears to be setting the stage for the Model 3’s entrance into the global market. With exhibits of the electric car making its way into multiple countries in Europe and key cities in China, there seems to be very little doubt that the Model 3 invasion is just around the corner.
Reports and anecdotes from the Tesla community indicate that Tesla’s Model 3 exhibits have attracted a notable amount of attention. Over the past 24 hours, reservation holders and electric car enthusiasts have shown up en masse to view and get some hands-on experience with the electric sedan. In some areas in the European region, the Model 3 even attracted lines of people, with interested individuals waiting outside Tesla stores for an opportunity to interact with the company’s latest vehicle.
M3 on display in Mall of Scandinavia. It's 1PM on a Thursday and there's about 40 people in the store and 10 more outside waiting in line.@vincent13031925 pic.twitter.com/3YRxSHFgdW
— 🇮🇸 🇸🇪 Hjörtur Brynjarsson 🇺🇦 (@HjorturBrynjars) November 15, 2018
The warm reception of the European region towards the Model 3 bodes well for the company. If any, the Model 3 fever spreading across Tesla’s stores in Europe suggests that the demand for the electric sedan remains strong even in territories beyond North America.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1062731482236624896
Einige visuellen Eindrücke vom heutigen #Model3 Event im Tesla Store Zürich für jeden, der es selbst nicht erleben konnte. Herzlichen Dank, @marTW33T. https://t.co/43kWInkiCy pic.twitter.com/vELezp4t1t
— Tesla Community Schweiz 🇨🇭 (@TeslaSchweiz) November 14, 2018
On the other side of the world, Tesla’s Model 3 push is starting to become evident as well. Amidst Model 3 exhibits in key cities such as Shanghai and Shenzen, local Chinese media are also providing what could very well be the first details on the vehicle’s upcoming rollout in the region. According to local news outlet Gasgoo.com, for one, Tesla would be entering the Chinese market with the Model 3’s top two variants — the Model 3 Performance and the Long Range AWD Model 3. The vehicles will be priced higher than their counterparts due to import tariffs, though the impending construction of Gigafactory 3 is expected to reduce the price of electric cars that will be delivered in the country.
A Red Tesla Model 3 arrived Shenzhen, China 🇨🇳 yesterday. $TSLA #Tesla #Model3 #China #TeslaChina pic.twitter.com/I0YQBTq2oX
— vincent (@vincent13031925) November 15, 2018
In the past 24 hrs, Tesla Model 3 has appeared in many European countries for the first time, causing huge crowds. Beginning of this year, Model 3 also appeared in many of China's Tesla showrooms the very first time, which also caused huge crowds. $TSLA #Tesla #TeslaChina pic.twitter.com/FooR1gqXNV
— vincent (@vincent13031925) November 15, 2018
Recent updates from Elon Musk have provided some details on Tesla’s upcoming push in China. In a recent tweet, Musk stated that some Model 3 deliveries in the country might be possible in March 2019, though April might be a safer bet. With Musk’s recent update, though, it appears that Tesla’s global push for the Model 3 would likely begin sometime in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2019.
Probably some deliveries in March, but April is more certain
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 15, 2018
After passing through “production hell” and “delivery logistics hell,” Tesla appears to have reached a place where it is confident of its capability to manufacture and deliver the Model 3. In order to accomplish this, the company is thinking outside the box once more. In a recent set of tweets, for example, Elon Musk has noted that Tesla just “acquired trucking capacity” to ensure that all Model 3 ordered by November 30 would be delivered by December 31. In a later tweet, Musk elaborated that Tesla had “bought some trucking companies and secured contracts with major haulers” to ensure that the delivery difficulties the company faced at the end of the third quarter do not happen again.
Tesla produced and delivered a record number of vehicles in the third quarter, even surprising Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue and beating earnings estimates with a GAAP profit of $312 million. Considering Tesla’s preparations for a massive end-of-year delivery push, as well as the arrival of the Mid Range Model 3, though, the electric car maker’s fourth quarter’s numbers would likely be even more impressive.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027
Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”
SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.
It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.
Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.
Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2026
There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.
The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures
All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.
If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.
Investor's Corner
Tesla’s flying Roadster just revealed something bigger than the car
Analysts say the Roadster demo puts a Tesla and SpaceX merger back on the table.
The Roadster unveiling near Waco ended Thursday night, and by Friday morning much of the investor reaction had less to do with the car than with who owns the rocket technology inside it.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event “puts the Tesla/SpaceX relationship on the table in a tangible way,” pointing to the propulsion, pressure vessel and control hardware sitting on a Tesla product. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management called the demo “a ridiculous display of engineering” with “no commercial value” beyond embarrassing traditional automakers, though he said it showed Musk wants the two companies together.
The more specific forecast came a day earlier from Barclays. Analyst Dan Levy told clients a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must happen by December 6, and that an announcement in late October or early November could make shareholder approval harder. Barclays expects SpaceX to be the buyer in an all stock deal, with Tesla holders receiving SpaceX shares at a premium, based on market values of roughly $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla. If nothing lands around the meeting, the bank still sees an announcement within 6 to 12 months.
The Roadster demo just added more weight to merger speculations. Tesla’s demo used cold gas thrusters and pressure tanks of the kind SpaceX uses on Falcon 9, and Musk described the car as a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers, as we mentioned in our breakdown of the three Roadster configurations.
Musk has not publicly addressed a deal since the event, as far as we have seen. His most direct answer remains the one he gave at the All In Summit, when he said that with so much collaboration, “who can imagine what action one might take” without ruling anything out. Ives has held to a 2027 timeline since his March note, and Musk pushed back on the China piece of the speculation when ARK floated a year end announcement in August.
The next test is Tesla’s third quarter earnings call on October 21. However, we recall in July that Musk told analysts, “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a clear answer wouldn’t be expected.