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Tesla to sustain Model 3 “burst” production rate in July, suggests online tracker

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Tesla’s capability to sustain its rate of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week this third quarter remains in question, but an online tracker by Bloomberg suggests that the Silicon Valley electric car maker is on pace to hit peak production levels in the next few weeks.

Tesla was finally able to manufacture 5,000 Model 3 per week during the final seven days of the second quarter, thanks to a blitz of activity in the Fremont factory. Tesla had to implement a number of unorthodox strategies to achieve the production milestone, including building an entirely new general assembly line inside a massive sprung structure at the grounds of the Fremont factory and air-freighting six airplanes’ worth of robots from Europe. These, together with Tesla’s “burst” build, were considered by critics to be unsustainable.

Doubts about Tesla’s capability to maintain its 5,000/week Model 3 production rate fueled the thesis of the company’s most vocal critics, such as JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, who wrote that Tesla’s burst production could not be repeated. CFRA Research analyst Efraim Levy also downgraded TSLA to a Sell, stating that the burst rate for Model 3 production is the not “operationally or financially sustainable.” These reservations affected Tesla’s stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), with the company ending the week at $308.88 per share, a significant drop from the near-record highs it achieved earlier in June.

Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 tracker as of 7/9/18. [Credit: Bloomberg]

If the current numbers reflected in Bloomberg‘s Model 3 online tracker are any indication, however, it appears that Tesla might just be on track to produce the Model 3 at a sustained rate of the 5,000 vehicles per week. As of this weekend, the online tracker, which was just 2% off its prediction for Tesla’s final Q2 numbers, shows a trend of more than 5,000 Model 3 per week over the next three weeks. Apart from this, production of the compact electric car is also listed at 5,187 Model 3 per week.

Bloomberg‘s Tesla Model 3 production tracker aggregates data from U.S. government resources, social media reports, as well as direct communication with Tesla owners. VINs that are listed in the tracker are either traced depending on Tesla’s own filings during batch registrations, or sightings of Model 3 in the wild. Vehicle Identification Numbers do not directly correspond to the number of Model 3 that Tesla is producing, but Elon Musk himself admitted in the Q1 2018 earnings call that “any  information that (Tesla) provide(s) would be one week or two in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully.”

Tesla is now attempting to hit sustained profitability for the first time in its history. During Q2 2018, Elon Musk boldly declared on Twitter that Tesla would start being profitable around Q3 or Q4 2018. During the first quarter earnings call, Musk reiterated this, stating that it was about time Tesla starts showing some earnings. In order to accomplish this goal, Tesla would have to ensure that the Model 3 gets built and delivered at a pace that is sustainable.

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Considering the sales numbers of the Model 3, it appears that if Tesla can keep its production rate steady, it would only be a matter of time before the vehicle can help push the company towards profitability. In Tesla’s Q2 2018 Production and Delivery report, the company stated that it had delivered 18,440 Model 3 from April-June 2018. Tesla also had 11,166 Model 3 vehicles in transit to customers by the time the quarter ended, setting up the third quarter for record deliveries and sales. The Chevy Bolt EV, considered as the Model 3’s main rival, had sales of 3,483 vehicles during Q2 2018, 82% less than the Model 3.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award. 

Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.

ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals. 

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.

“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.

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ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls

Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.

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Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote

Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package. 

Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights 

In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI.  As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.

“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.

A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award

In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV. 

Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event. 

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