Investor's Corner
Tesla to sustain Model 3 “burst” production rate in July, suggests online tracker
Tesla’s capability to sustain its rate of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week this third quarter remains in question, but an online tracker by Bloomberg suggests that the Silicon Valley electric car maker is on pace to hit peak production levels in the next few weeks.
Tesla was finally able to manufacture 5,000 Model 3 per week during the final seven days of the second quarter, thanks to a blitz of activity in the Fremont factory. Tesla had to implement a number of unorthodox strategies to achieve the production milestone, including building an entirely new general assembly line inside a massive sprung structure at the grounds of the Fremont factory and air-freighting six airplanes’ worth of robots from Europe. These, together with Tesla’s “burst” build, were considered by critics to be unsustainable.
Doubts about Tesla’s capability to maintain its 5,000/week Model 3 production rate fueled the thesis of the company’s most vocal critics, such as JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, who wrote that Tesla’s burst production could not be repeated. CFRA Research analyst Efraim Levy also downgraded TSLA to a Sell, stating that the burst rate for Model 3 production is the not “operationally or financially sustainable.” These reservations affected Tesla’s stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), with the company ending the week at $308.88 per share, a significant drop from the near-record highs it achieved earlier in June.
Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 tracker as of 7/9/18. [Credit: Bloomberg]
If the current numbers reflected in Bloomberg‘s Model 3 online tracker are any indication, however, it appears that Tesla might just be on track to produce the Model 3 at a sustained rate of the 5,000 vehicles per week. As of this weekend, the online tracker, which was just 2% off its prediction for Tesla’s final Q2 numbers, shows a trend of more than 5,000 Model 3 per week over the next three weeks. Apart from this, production of the compact electric car is also listed at 5,187 Model 3 per week.
Bloomberg‘s Tesla Model 3 production tracker aggregates data from U.S. government resources, social media reports, as well as direct communication with Tesla owners. VINs that are listed in the tracker are either traced depending on Tesla’s own filings during batch registrations, or sightings of Model 3 in the wild. Vehicle Identification Numbers do not directly correspond to the number of Model 3 that Tesla is producing, but Elon Musk himself admitted in the Q1 2018 earnings call that “any information that (Tesla) provide(s) would be one week or two in advance of what will become public knowledge just due to vehicle registrations and shipments that are tracked very carefully.”
Tesla is now attempting to hit sustained profitability for the first time in its history. During Q2 2018, Elon Musk boldly declared on Twitter that Tesla would start being profitable around Q3 or Q4 2018. During the first quarter earnings call, Musk reiterated this, stating that it was about time Tesla starts showing some earnings. In order to accomplish this goal, Tesla would have to ensure that the Model 3 gets built and delivered at a pace that is sustainable.
Considering the sales numbers of the Model 3, it appears that if Tesla can keep its production rate steady, it would only be a matter of time before the vehicle can help push the company towards profitability. In Tesla’s Q2 2018 Production and Delivery report, the company stated that it had delivered 18,440 Model 3 from April-June 2018. Tesla also had 11,166 Model 3 vehicles in transit to customers by the time the quarter ended, setting up the third quarter for record deliveries and sales. The Chevy Bolt EV, considered as the Model 3’s main rival, had sales of 3,483 vehicles during Q2 2018, 82% less than the Model 3.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm on self-driving prowess
“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet,” BoA wrote.
Tesla received a tip of the hat from major Wall Street firm Bank of America on Wednesday, as it reinitiated coverage on Tesla shares with a bullish stance that comes with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $460 price target.
In a new note that marks a sharp reversal from its neutral position earlier in 2025, the bank declared Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology the “leading consumer autonomy solution.”
Analysts highlighted Tesla’s camera-only architecture, known as Tesla Vision, as a strategic masterstroke. While technically more challenging than the multi-sensor setups favored by rivals, the vision-based approach is dramatically cheaper to produce and maintain.
This cost edge, combined with Tesla’s rapidly expanding real-world data engine, positions the company to scale robotaxis far more profitably than competitors, BofA argues in the new note:
“Tesla is at the forefront of autonomous driving, supported by a camera-only approach that is technically harder but much cheaper than the multi-sensor systems widely used in the industry. This strategy should allow Tesla to scale more profitably compared to Robotaxi competitors, helped by a growing data engine from its existing fleet.”
The bank now attributes roughly 52% of Tesla’s total valuation to its Robotaxi ambitions. It also flagged meaningful upside from the Optimus humanoid robot program and the fast-growing energy storage business, suggesting the auto segment’s recent headwinds, including expired incentives, are being eclipsed by these higher-margin opportunities.
Tesla’s own data underscores exactly why Wall Street is waking up to FSD’s potential. According to Tesla’s official safety reporting page, the FSD Supervised fleet has now surpassed 8.4 billion cumulative miles driven.
Tesla FSD (Supervised) fleet passes 8.4 billion cumulative miles
That total ballooned from just 6 million miles in 2021 to 80 million in 2022, 670 million in 2023, 2.25 billion in 2024, and a staggering 4.25 billion in 2025 alone. In the first 50 days of 2026, owners added another 1 billion miles — averaging more than 20 million miles per day.
This avalanche of real-world, camera-captured footage, much of it on complex city streets, gives Tesla an unmatched training dataset. Every mile feeds its neural networks, accelerating improvement cycles that lidar-dependent rivals simply cannot match at scale.
Tesla owners themselves will tell you the suite gets better with every release, bringing new features and improvements to its self-driving project.
The $460 target implies roughly 15 percent upside from recent trading levels around $400. While regulatory and safety hurdles remain, BofA’s endorsement signals growing institutional conviction that Tesla’s data advantage is not hype; it’s a tangible moat already delivering billions of miles of proof.
Elon Musk
SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket
The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.
Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.
The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.
As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.
Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.
The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.
Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.
That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.
Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.
Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk hints Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily
“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet,” Musk said.
Elon Musk recently hinted that he believes Tesla investors will be rewarded heavily if they continue to hold onto their shares, and he reiterated that in a new interview that the company released on its social accounts this week.
Musk is one of the most successful CEOs in the modern era and has mammothed competitors on the Forbes Net Worth List over the past year as his holdings in his various companies have continued to swell.
Tesla investors, especially those who have been holding shares for several years, have also felt substantial gains in their portfolios. Over the past five years, the stock is up over 78 percent. Since February 2019, nearly seven years ago to the day, the stock is up over 1,800 percent.
Musk said in the interview:
“Hold onto your Tesla stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet.”
Elon Musk in new interview: “Hold on to your $TSLA stock. It’s going to be worth a lot, I think. That’s my bet.” pic.twitter.com/cucirBuhq0
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 26, 2026
It’s no secret Musk has been extremely bullish on his own companies, but Tesla in particular, because it is publicly traded.
However, the company has so many amazing projects that have an opportunity to revolutionize their respective industries. There is certainly a path to major growth on Wall Street for Tesla through its various future projects, including Optimus, Cybercab, Semi, and Unsupervised FSD.
- Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot): Musk has discussed its potential for tasks like childcare, walking dogs, or assisting elderly parents, positioning it as a massive long-term driver of company value.
- Cybercab (Tesla’s robotaxi/autonomous ride-hailing vehicle): a fully autonomous vehicle geared specifically for Tesla’s ride-sharing ambitions.
- Semi (Tesla’s electric truck, with mentions of expansion, like in Europe): brings Tesla into the commercial logistics sector.
- Unsupervised FSD (Full Self-Driving software achieving full autonomy without human supervision): turns every Tesla owner’s vehicle into a fully-autonomous vehicle upon release
These projects specifically are some of the highest-growth pillars Tesla has ever attempted to develop, especially in Musk’s eyes, as he has said Optimus will be the best-selling product of all-time.
Many analysts agree, but the bullish ones, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, are perhaps the one who believes Tesla has incredible potential on Wall Street, predicting a $2,600 price target for 2030, but this is not even including Optimus.
She told Bloomberg last March that she believes that the project will present a potential additive if Tesla can scale faster than anticipated.
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