Investor's Corner
The Tesla Model 3 is rocketing past Europe’s best-selling electric cars: analyst
The Tesla Model 3 achieved yet another milestone as it continues its international ramp. Over the first quarter, the electric sedan from Silicon Valley successfully rocketed past other popular electric cars in Western Europe, taking its place at the top of the region’s list of best-selling EVs.
Berlin-based automotive industry analyst Matthias Schmidt noted that Tesla sold 19,482 Model 3 in the first quarter, a significant lead over the previous #1 EV in the region, the ubiquitous Renault Zoe, which sold 11,049 units over the same period. This is particularly impressive for the Model 3, as it was only available in the market since February, and it was more than twice, or (at times) even three times the cost of the best-selling Zoe. The Nissan Leaf, a veteran in the mainstream EV market, bowed down to the Model 3 as well, selling 10,315 in the first quarter.
The Model 3’s competitors in the premium electric vehicle segment were farther off. The Jaguar I-PACE, which recently received the World Car of the Year award, was 7th place in Europe’s sales, selling 3,012 units in Q1. The Audi e-tron, also a much-hyped vehicle that was, at one time, considered as a potential “Tesla Killer” by skeptics, sold a rather humble 2,526 units in the first quarter, according to the Berlin-based analyst’s data.
In a statement to Forbes, the auto analyst noted that the Model 3’s competition from Europe might be deliberately holding back their sales due to the European Union’s (EU) carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations, which are set to become tighter next year. According to Schmidt, automakers might be aiming to grow their electric car fleets in 2021, in order to bring down their average emissions and avoid fines. Thus, Tesla has all the opportunity it needs to push the Model 3 today, since its all-electric fleet is in no danger from the EU’s tightening emissions rules.
“I expect the Model 3 to finish the year as the top-selling electric car model in Europe helped along by the fact that other manufacturers are reducing supply of their electric models to 2020, with plenty of creative excuses, in order to lower their fleet average CO2 emissions – when it counts – to achieve the next round of EU targets being introduced in 2020 covering 95% of their total fleet and 100% in the following year. Tesla is the only manufacturer that doesn’t have an issue meeting fleet average CO2 emissions and effectively has an open goal up to the end of this year,” the analyst said.
The Tesla Model 3 is proving to be a disruptive vehicle in every region it has been deployed to so far. With Model 3 deliveries focused on North America last year, the electric sedan became the best-selling luxury vehicle in the United States. The Model 3 made its presence known as it made its way into Europe as well. Norway, for one, reported that nearly 60% of all vehicles sold in the country in March were all-electric. More than 18,000 cars were registered in the country during the month, and over 10,000 were all-electric. From this number, 5,822 were Tesla Model S, Model 3, and Model X, which means that one in every three vehicles sold in Norway in March was a Tesla. The Model 3 also made a strong impact in Switzerland, where the all-electric car became the country’s best-selling car at the end of Q1, electric or otherwise.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
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