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Tesla Giga Shanghai’s Model 3 production run-rate already hitting 91% of ambitious 2021 targets
Tesla Giga Shanghai produced 22,292 Model 3 vehicles in the month of October, according to vehicle production data from the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla’s production numbers came in second in the country after SAIC-GM-Wuling (SGMW), which manufactured 29,843 units of its Mini EV micro electric car. BYD’s production numbers came in third with 22,268 units.
Tesla industry watcher @TroyTeslike noted that Gigafactory Shanghai produced 22,929 Model 3s in October. He calculated that the electric car maker achieved an annual run-rate of 275,148 vehicles per year at its current production pace. However, Tesla’s lightning-fast Shanghai factory is not known for maintaining the status quo. Not long ago Wall Street estimated that Tesla’s Shanghai plant would only produce 35,000 to 40,000 in its first year of operations.
Considering that Model 3 production is already at a run-rate of 275,000 vehicles per year in Giga Shanghai, it would appear that Tesla China is already at ~91% of its ambitious 2021 manufacturing target. Tesla China aims to manufacture 550,000 vehicles next year, 300,000 of which will be Model 3s. To reach its 2021 Model 3 production goals, Giga Shanghai would need to produce around 25,000 units of the all-electric sedan per month. That’s just a bit over 2,000 compared to Tesla’s October 2020 production figures.
Based on October’s numbers, Tesla China could reach its target 2021 Model 3 run rate by the end of the year, provided that it continues to steadily increase its production capabilities in the coming weeks. This may happen since the company is currently looking to deliver over 180,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.
Once Giga Shanghai has reached its Model 3 production goals for next year, it can concentrate on its targets for the Model Y. Tesla China wants to hit the ground running by making 250,000 Model Y units in 2021. The Made-in-China Model Y was registered with the Chinese Ministry of Industry & Information Technology recently. Giga Shanghai just needs to wait for a permit to produce Tesla’s crossover. Sightings of the Made-in-China Tesla Model Y have been reported in China in recent weeks as well.
Just recently, the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) revealed that Tesla sold 12,143 Made-in-China Model 3s in October, translating to a 7.18% month-over-month growth compared to the previous month. In September, the EV automaker had sold 11,238 Model 3s in China. This may seem like a conservative improvement, but it should be noted that Tesla also exported 7,000 Model 3s to Europe in October.
The CPCA expects Giga Shanghai’s Model 3 sales to significantly increase in November and December, as mentioned by Tesla owner-investor @Ray4Tesla. Shanghai’s new regulations, which limits out-of-city vehicles within its major roads, could increase demand for the locally-made sedan. Giga Shanghai is also poised to export more Model 3s to Europe in the coming weeks, which could result in higher sales numbers from Tesla China in Q4.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
