Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 recognized as the United States’ best-selling luxury car in 2018
The Tesla might still have a number of critics who question the vehicle’s demand, but the electric sedan has practically dominated in 2018 nonetheless. By selling a total of 145,846 units over the course of the past year, the Model 3 has established itself as the United States’ best-selling luxury vehicle, far outpacing its closest competitor.
After the Tesla Model 3, the second in the past year’s luxury vehicle rankings is the Lexus RX, which sold 111,641 units in 2018. Following the Toyota-made Lexus RX are more luxury SUVs from legacy carmakers from Germany, such as the Mercedes-Benz GLC, which sold 62,435 units, and the Audi Q5, which sold 61,835 over the year, as noted in a report from CNBC Make It.
The Model 3’s place at the top of the US’ luxury vehicles list is a notable feat for the electric sedan, especially considering Tesla’s challenges with the vehicle’s production ramp. In the first quarter of 2018, for example, Tesla was only able to produce 9,766 Model 3. During this time, Tesla was struggling to hit a milestone of producing 2,500 Model 3 per week.
After adopting unorthodox strategies such as the construction of another assembly line inside a massive sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory, Tesla’s second quarter proved to be an improvement over Q1, with the company producing 28,578 Model 3 from April to June 2018. Q2 was also the first time production of the Model 3 exceeded the numbers of the Model S and X.
Tesla’s breakthrough with Model 3 production came in the third quarter when the company doubled its Q2 volume and produced 53,239 units of the vehicle. Despite what Elon Musk described as “delivery logistics hell,” Tesla was able to deliver a total of 55,840 Model 3 to customers before the quarter ended. These efforts ultimately allowed Tesla to surprise Wall Street and prove its naysayers wrong by posting $6.8 billion in revenue and beating earnings estimates with a GAAP profit of $312 million.
The Model 3 continued to be produced in mass quantities in the fourth quarter, with the company producing 61,394 Model 3. Deliveries for the vehicle also hit 63,150 in Q4, signifying a 13% growth over the vehicle’s already impressive figures in Q3 2018. Over the course of the year, Tesla ultimately delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles, 145,846 of them being the Model 3. That’s nearly as many cars the company sold in all previous years combined.
Inasmuch as the Model 3 is already being recognized as a success in the US luxury car market, the electric sedan is yet to start its push into international markets. So far, Tesla is already laying the foundations for the Model 3’s push in two large global markets — Europe and China. The company is reportedly looking to send 3,000 Model 3 per week to Europe by February. To prepare for the influx of Model 3, Tesla has begun rolling out Superchargers that are equipped with both a Type 2 and a CCS plug, which matches the port on Model 3 that are produced for the region.
Elon Musk has noted that deliveries of the Model 3 could begin as early as March in China. This, however, is but the tip of the iceberg for the company’s plans for the Model 3 in the country. Earlier this week, Elon Musk attended the groundbreaking event for Gigafactory 3, which will be tasked to produce affordable versions of the Model 3 and the Model Y for the Chinese market. In true Tesla fashion, the company has an aggressive timetable for the upcoming factory, with Musk stating that the first China-made Model 3 could roll out of Gigafactory 3 by the end of 2019.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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