Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 recognized as the United States’ best-selling luxury car in 2018
The Tesla might still have a number of critics who question the vehicle’s demand, but the electric sedan has practically dominated in 2018 nonetheless. By selling a total of 145,846 units over the course of the past year, the Model 3 has established itself as the United States’ best-selling luxury vehicle, far outpacing its closest competitor.
After the Tesla Model 3, the second in the past year’s luxury vehicle rankings is the Lexus RX, which sold 111,641 units in 2018. Following the Toyota-made Lexus RX are more luxury SUVs from legacy carmakers from Germany, such as the Mercedes-Benz GLC, which sold 62,435 units, and the Audi Q5, which sold 61,835 over the year, as noted in a report from CNBC Make It.
The Model 3’s place at the top of the US’ luxury vehicles list is a notable feat for the electric sedan, especially considering Tesla’s challenges with the vehicle’s production ramp. In the first quarter of 2018, for example, Tesla was only able to produce 9,766 Model 3. During this time, Tesla was struggling to hit a milestone of producing 2,500 Model 3 per week.
After adopting unorthodox strategies such as the construction of another assembly line inside a massive sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory, Tesla’s second quarter proved to be an improvement over Q1, with the company producing 28,578 Model 3 from April to June 2018. Q2 was also the first time production of the Model 3 exceeded the numbers of the Model S and X.
Tesla’s breakthrough with Model 3 production came in the third quarter when the company doubled its Q2 volume and produced 53,239 units of the vehicle. Despite what Elon Musk described as “delivery logistics hell,” Tesla was able to deliver a total of 55,840 Model 3 to customers before the quarter ended. These efforts ultimately allowed Tesla to surprise Wall Street and prove its naysayers wrong by posting $6.8 billion in revenue and beating earnings estimates with a GAAP profit of $312 million.
-->The Model 3 continued to be produced in mass quantities in the fourth quarter, with the company producing 61,394 Model 3. Deliveries for the vehicle also hit 63,150 in Q4, signifying a 13% growth over the vehicle’s already impressive figures in Q3 2018. Over the course of the year, Tesla ultimately delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles, 145,846 of them being the Model 3. That’s nearly as many cars the company sold in all previous years combined.
Inasmuch as the Model 3 is already being recognized as a success in the US luxury car market, the electric sedan is yet to start its push into international markets. So far, Tesla is already laying the foundations for the Model 3’s push in two large global markets — Europe and China. The company is reportedly looking to send 3,000 Model 3 per week to Europe by February. To prepare for the influx of Model 3, Tesla has begun rolling out Superchargers that are equipped with both a Type 2 and a CCS plug, which matches the port on Model 3 that are produced for the region.
Elon Musk has noted that deliveries of the Model 3 could begin as early as March in China. This, however, is but the tip of the iceberg for the company’s plans for the Model 3 in the country. Earlier this week, Elon Musk attended the groundbreaking event for Gigafactory 3, which will be tasked to produce affordable versions of the Model 3 and the Model Y for the Chinese market. In true Tesla fashion, the company has an aggressive timetable for the upcoming factory, with Musk stating that the first China-made Model 3 could roll out of Gigafactory 3 by the end of 2019.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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