Investor's Corner
Tesla registers 13.6k new Mid Range Model 3 VINs after posting blockbuster earnings
After posting blockbuster quarterly results that pleasantly surprised Wall Street on Wednesday, Tesla has shown renewed signs that its Model 3 production ramp is gaining strength. On early Thursday, Tesla registered its largest single batch of Model 3 VINs yet, comprised of 13,629 vehicles, all of which are estimated to be RWD.
With this latest filing, Tesla had registered a total of 169,791 Model 3 to date. The absence of AWD VINs also bodes well for the demand for the Model 3’s newest variant — the Mid Range Model 3 — which utilizes a single motor at the rear, and costs less than the Long Range RWD Model 3, which starts at 49,000 before incentives.
#Tesla registered 13,629 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 169791. https://t.co/CbAbsrLRkz
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) October 25, 2018
The arrival of the Mid Range Model 3 came as a surprise for the vehicle’s reservation holders, particularly since the variant has not been announced prior to its launch. When the Model 3 was unveiled, Tesla had listed two RWD variants of the vehicle — a 220-mile Standard range version that starts at $35,000 and a 310-mile Long Range variant that starts at $49,000. The Mid Range Model 3, which has a range of 260 miles per charge, cost $45,000 when it was unveiled, though the price of the electric sedan was raised to $46,000 earlier this week.
The Mid Range Model 3 appears to be Tesla’s way of offering a lower-cost option for reservation holders who are holding out for the release of the $35,000 base Model 3. After the $7,500 tax credit and estimated gas savings, after all, the Mid Range Model 3’s cost of ownership falls to around $33,200. Elon Musk referenced the newly-announced Model 3 variant in the recently-held earnings call.
“We’re trying to provide (the) most affordable electric car options that we can. And so as we can — we just don’t have the ability to get to the $35,000 car right away. We thought this might be a way to offer it as an intermediate step. And that’s really it,” Musk said.
Considering the new wave of RWD VIN registrations, as well as the vehicle’s $1,000 price increase just days after it was released, it appears that the demand for the Mid Range Model 3 is quite notable. Since Elon Musk announced the car on Twitter, for one, Tesla had registered more than 18,000 RWD Model 3 VINs. Considering that the Long Range RWD variant is only available off-menu for now, it seems safe to infer that the majority of the vehicles corresponding to Tesla’s new VIN filings are Mid Range Model 3s.
The Tesla Model 3. [Credit: Tesla]
While Tesla delivered a blockbuster third quarter, the company’s fourth-quarter performance seems poised to be even more impressive. This Q4, Gigafactory 1 is expected to receive upgrades in the form of new Grohmann Machines that would make battery pack production cheaper and faster, as well as upgraded battery cell production lines from Panasonic. In terms of VIN registrations, October seems poised to set records for the company, with Tesla registering more than 51,000 VINs since the month began.
What is even more impressive is that Tesla is only partly done with its Model 3 production ramp, considering that the company is aiming to hit a production rate of 10,000 units of the electric car per week. Elon Musk proved optimistic about the ongoing ramp for the vehicle, though, as shown in his statements during the recent earnings call.
“Yeah, very minimal to get (Model 3 production) to 7,000 a week. And then I mean that’s really just basically solving improving our time of the existing lines, and we can do 7,000 a week. So and then it gets a little harder as you start to go above 7,000, it would need — at least bringing lines down in Fremont for significant upgrades to get to 10k,” Musk said.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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