Investor's Corner
Tesla’s final Model 3 push for Q3 unfolds as ‘delivery logistics hell’ gets addressed
Over Q1 and Q2, Tesla has exhibited a tendency to expedite its Model 3 production and deliveries in the final month of a quarter. The company did this last March when it was struggling to produce 2,500 Model 3 in a week, and the same strategy was adopted in June as Tesla attempted to hit its then-mythical target of producing 5,000 Model 3 in one week.
This third quarter, Tesla is going for something more ambitious. The company aims to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3 between June and September while achieving profitability at the same time. To accomplish these goals, Tesla would have to not only produce, but also deliver the Model 3 to as many reservation holders as it can. Such a scenario has resulted in new challenges for Tesla, with Elon Musk dubbing the circumstances as “delivery logistics hell,” which the company is now experiencing just as it left “production hell.”
Earlier this week, Elon Musk admitted to the company’s difficulties in delivering the Model 3 while apologizing to a reservation holder whose delivery had been delayed multiple times. In his response, Musk noted that “delivery logistics hell” should be solved faster than “production hell,” as the issues are far more tractable. Musk also stated that Tesla is making rapid progress in addressing its Model 3 delivery issues.
With less than two weeks to go before the end of the third quarter, reports from the Tesla community are starting to indicate that the company is indeed addressing its delivery challenges. Megan Gale, the reservation holder that Musk responded to earlier this week, recently posted an update stating that the center in her area is getting Model 3 deliveries out in a rapid manner. She was also finally able to receive her Model 3 Performance.
Tesla’s Model 3 delivery push does not seem to be exclusive to the United States, either. Social media posts from Model 3 reservation holders in Vancouver suggest that Tesla is pushing deliveries until 10 p.m. every day, as part of its attempt to deliver the electric car en masse to Canada.
Vancouver #Tesla $tsla is delivering Model 3s until 10pm everyday. Demand is insane. pic.twitter.com/rKHN86wj3z
— Hanky Frunk (@rocketL49) September 19, 2018
Tesla has been laying the foundations for faster deliveries of the Model 3 for the past couple of months. At the beginning of Q3, Tesla started rolling out the 5-Minute Sign & Drive delivery program as a way to expedite the handover process of the Model 3. Elon Musk also announced that the company is looking to eliminate paper contracts in the delivery process. Earlier this month, Tesla also held a “First Come, First Serve” delivery day for Long Range RWD Model 3 units in CA, where first-day reservation holders were able to acquire vehicles that are ready to be driven home.
While it remains to be seen how many Model 3 would be produced and delivered this quarter, both Elon Musk and board member Kimbal Musk have teased that the company would likely surprise the market at the end of Q3. In a letter to employees, Elon Musk noted that Tesla is “about to have the most amazing quarter in (its) history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as (it) did last quarter.” Kimbal, on the other hand, noted in a recent segment of CNBC‘s Closing Bell that September is an exciting month for Tesla, considering that the number of Model 3 that would appear in US roads within the next couple of weeks would be astonishing.
“This month is an exciting month for us. You know, it’s really gonna blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just the next couple of weeks,” he said.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX
