Investor's Corner
Tesla’s strong overseas Model 3 push teased with 9k VIN registrations for Europe
Tesla has reached a point where it is capable of producing the Model 3 en masse. With the vehicle now saturating North America, the time has come to bring the electric sedan to the international market. In this light, Tesla appears set to kick off 2019 on a strong note, starting the first week of the year with more than 14,000 Model 3 VIN registrations — over 9,000 of which are cars for the European market.
As could be seen in the data aggregated by Model 3 VIN tracking group @Model3VINs, Tesla had started 2019 with a string of more than 14,000 filings. Among these, more than 9,600 were listed with restraint systems which indicated that the cars were configured for Europe. With these latest filings, Tesla had also broken the 200k barrier with its Model 3 VIN registrations — a notable milestone for a vehicle whose production was beset by challenges on its first year.
The company’s Model 3 VIN registrations for Europe bodes well for the Tesla’s expansion into the region. The electric car maker, after all, is reportedly still looking to receive “homologation” approval to sell cars in Europe. In a statement to the Los Angeles Times, though, Tesla noted that it was working closely with regulators and that it expects to gain approval for the Model 3 after the 2018 holidays.
If Tesla receives homologation approval soon, the company would be able to follow through with its plan of shipping 3,000 Model 3 to the region per week starting in February. This would give the Model 3 time to saturate the European market before other premium EVs saturate the market, one of which is the Audi e-tron, an all-electric SUV unveiled last year. The e-tron’s European release initially got delayed due to issues with its software, though a later statement by the legacy automaker on December to EV publication Electrive noted that the e-tron had made it through homologation.
Tesla, for its part, is moving full throttle towards the Model 3’s European push. Belgian news agency Focus-WTV, for one, has noted that the electric sedans will be arriving every week at the port of Zeebrugge, which is located on the coast of Belgium. To optimize the shipping of the Model 3 further, Tesla is also reportedly partnering with transportation firm International Car Operators (ICO), which utilizes RoRo (roll-on, roll-off) ships that are capable of loading and unloading cargo quickly.
To support the influx of the Model 3 in Europe, Tesla is also hard at work rolling out Superchargers that are equipped with dual charge cables. These stations, which are fitted with both a Type 2 plug and a CCS plug, would be perfectly compatible with the Model 3 for the region, which would are with a CCS port. Tesla plans to retrofit its existing Supercharger Network in Europe to accommodate the Model 3 as well.
The Tesla Model 3 is a vehicle described by Elon Musk as a “bet-the-company” project, a car that pretty much determined the future of the company. Despite initial production challenges, the Model 3 has been proving itself in the US market, ranking among the best-selling cars in the country over the past few months despite the country’s notable preference for vehicles like SUVs and trucks. In foreign regions, the Model 3 actually could have more potential. Tesla, after all, noted in its Q3 2018 Update Letter that the mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is “more than twice as big as the same segment in the US.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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