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Tesla Model Y surpasses Model 3 in Q3 registrations in California, data shows

(Credit: The Kilowatts/YouTube)

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The Tesla Model Y has officially become the most popular vehicle in California from the Silicon Valley-based automaker. New data shows that the all-electric crossover has officially surpassed its sibling in the Model 3 sedan in the company’s home state.

Cross-Sell, a vehicle data research firm, showed that the Golden State had around 16,200 Teslas registered during the third quarter of 2020. The new Model Y crossover became the company’s top-seller in the state, accounting for 7,300 registrations in Q3.

The mass-market Model 3 sedan accounted for around 6,500 total registrations during the third quarter, Reuters reported:

“At nearly 7,300, registrations in the state for Tesla’s Model Y compact crossover utility vehicle surpassed those for the Model 3.”

CEO Elon Musk once stated that Tesla expected the Model Y to overtake the Model 3 in terms of popularity.

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“We expect the demand for Model Y will be maybe 50 percent higher than Model 3, could be even double,” Musk said during the Q4 2018 Earnings Call. “As I understand it, the midsize SUV segment worldwide is the most popular type of vehicle, so we’ll probably see a higher volume of Y than 3.”

This turned out to be a reality, at least in Q3 2020. The Model Y crossover was first delivered in March 2020 and has quickly become one of Tesla’s most sought after vehicles.

As a company, registrations of Tesla’s all-electric vehicles in California surged 60% in 2020’s third quarter compared to the second quarter, the data also shows.

This is a 60% boost compared to the registration figures that Tesla showed during the second quarter, which had roughly 9,800 Tesla EVs registered.

The second quarter of 2020 was a rough stretch of time for most sectors worldwide. Automotive companies, however, experienced large-scale dropoffs in sales and vehicle registrations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tesla was not immune to this either.

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However, Tesla experienced a shutdown of its Fremont vehicle manufacturing facility in Northern California for nearly a month and a half. The company could not fulfill vehicle orders on a massive scale during this time frame, which negatively affected its delivery figures for the quarter. According to data released by the automaker, 90,891 cars were delivered to owners during Q2 2020.

The company rebounded nicely during Q3, which proved to be Tesla’s most successful quarter as a company in terms of production and delivery figures. On October 2nd, the company revealed 139,300 cars delivered and 145,036 cars produced during Q3. Both numbers were a company record.

However, it remains to be seen whether Tesla will turn a profit for the fifth consecutive quarter, which will extend another company record. Tesla will release those details during its Q3 Earnings Call, which is scheduled to take place on October 21st at 2:30 PM Pacific Time.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla widens rollout of new Full Self-Driving suite to more owners

Tesla started rolling out Full Self-Driving v14 nearly two weeks ago, but it was a very controlled release that made its way to only a small group of owners who are part of the EAP.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is widening its rollout of the new Full Self-Driving suite to more owners, after it had been confined to those in the Early Access Program (EAP) for a couple of weeks.

Tesla started rolling out Full Self-Driving v14 nearly two weeks ago, but it was a very controlled release that made its way to only a small group of owners who are part of the EAP.

It seemed logical to keep things tight; v14 was Tesla’s first major FSD release in a year, and it featured a handful of new features, including a new, slower driving profile known as “Sloth,” and the ability to park in an area at the destination that was designated by the driver.

There were also other improvements, including parking garage navigation, yielding for emergency vehicles, better recognition and handling for road debris, and a more refined ride experience overall. So far, it has been the best FSD suite Tesla has rolled out, capable of more than any previous release.

However, it has only been available to that small group of EAP Tesla owners. Now, it appears Tesla is starting to roll out Full Self-Driving v14 to more owners for the first time with v14.1.2:

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Tesla rolled out FSD v14.1.2 for the first time last night, introducing further refinements to the initial two v14 iterations that were made available to owners, as well as the new Mad Max Speed Profile, which offers higher speeds during travel and more lane changes.

Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

The first reviews of the Mad Max Speed Profile have been raving with positivity. Owners praise its ability to handle congestion and heavy traffic, as well as its decisiveness and reduced hesitation, which other Profiles have been noted for in the past two v14 releases.

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The expansion of the FSD suite, especially with this new version, will make so many owners happy, as the release has been slow, controlled, and exclusive. Now that it is making its way to more Tesla owners, we will see more refinements and features in the coming weeks.

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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