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Tesla’s next-gen EV is a small crossover, target production at 4M per year: industry insider report

Tesla's rough sketch of a vehicle that's smaller than the Model 3. (Credit: Tesla China)

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Tesla’s growth over the past few years has been built on the back of the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover. But for Tesla to reach its self-imposed target of 20 million vehicles per year by the end of the decade, the company needs to come up with a lower-priced car that could be produced at a scale far larger than the Model 3 and Model Y. 

This vehicle, if the company’s Investor Dar presentation is any indication, would be its next-generation car. Produced at Gigafactory Mexico, Tesla’s next-gen vehicle is expected to be offered at a lower price point than the Model 3 and Model Y. It would also be the product of numerous innovations that would make it easier and more cost-effective to build. 

Tesla tends to be very secretive about its future products, and the next-gen car is no exception. Few details about the vehicle are known today, though a recent report from China may have provided some new insights about the upcoming car. Citing several industry insiders, tech publication 36Kr recently claimed that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity map for its next-generation car. 

“The low-priced model is a smaller version of the Model Y. Tesla is working on building an annual production capacity of up to 4 million units for it,” one of the publication’s sources reportedly noted.

If the comment from the publication’s source were accurate, then Tesla’s next-generation vehicle may be a small crossover. This would be quite interesting, as previous hints at the vehicle’s design suggested that the affordable EV may be in the form of a compact car. That being said, the crossover market is extremely popular today, so a smaller, more affordable Model Y may prove extremely successful.

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Apart from the vehicle’s reported design, the Chinese publication’s sources also claimed that Tesla is planning an annual production capacity of up to 4 million units for the next-gen vehicle. This capacity would reportedly be distributed across Tesla’s numerous factories, with Giga Mexico taking the lion’s share of production at 2 million cars per year. On an annual basis, Giga Berlin and Giga Shanghai will reportedly produce about 1 million units of the affordable Tesla each. 

While Tesla’s affordable electric car is exciting, the publication’s sources noted that the vehicle is still more than a year away, at least depending on how fast Gigafactory Mexico could be built and launched. The next-gen car would likely be Tesla’s best and toughest endeavor to date, just from the sheer scale involved in the vehicle’s production and ramp. Fortunately, Tesla has a reputation for being a master of cost optimization through technological innovation. And that, ultimately, could help the company achieve even its most insane targets. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing

Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory. 

Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired. 

Booster test failure

SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.

Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.

Tight deadlines

SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.

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While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.

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Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release

In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”

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Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin. 

The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.

FSD V14.2 improvements

FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.

A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.

Elon Musk’s predicted wide release

The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”

FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles. 

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Tesla FSD V14.2 starts rolling out to initial batch of vehicles

It would likely only be a matter of time before FSD V14.2 videos are posted and shared on social media.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has begun pushing Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2 to its initial batch of vehicles. The update was initially observed by Tesla owners and veteran FSD users on social media platform X on Friday.

So far, reports of the update have been shared by Model Y owners in California whose vehicles are equipped with the company’s AI4 hardware, though it would not be surprising if more Tesla owners across the country receive the update as well. 

Based on the release notes of the update, key improvements in FSD V14.2 include a revamped neural network for better detection of emergency vehicles, obstacles, and human gestures, as well as options to select arrival spots. 

It would likely only be a matter of time before FSD V14.2 videos are posted and shared on social media.

Following are the release notes of FSD (Supervised) V14.2, as shared on X by longtime FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog.

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Release Notes

2025.38.9.5

Currently Installed

FSD (Supervised) v14.2

Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2 includes:

  • Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, leveraging higher resolution features to further improve scenarios like handling emergency vehicles, obstacles on the road, and human gestures.
  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances.
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school busses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and improve scenarios like handling emergency vehicles, obstacles on the road, and human gestures.
  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
  • Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

Upcoming Improvements:

  • Overall smoothness and sentience
  • Parking spot selection and parking quality
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