Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the automaker’s next vehicle platform will exceed Model 3 and Model Y production output, be roughly half the cost of the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, and be smaller in size.
Musk and other Tesla executives were asked about any potential developments from the next generation of Tesla vehicles. The question mentioned the dramatic drop in cost from the Model S and Model X platform to the Model 3 and Model Y platform. The Model 3 and Model Y brought Tesla’s electric vehicles to levels of mass affordability, which truly sparked the beginning of the transition to electric vehicles.
The Model 3 and Model Y are Tesla’s best-selling vehicles, accounting for 95 percent of the company’s total delivery mix for Q3, according to data from the automaker.
The retail investor asked whether Tesla’s third platform has an expected release date, along with what the company expected in terms of the total reduction in cost.
Earlier in the call, Tesla’s executives fielding questions during the Q3 Earnings Call scoffed at the idea of revealing development timelines for future vehicles and plans of the vehicle roadmap. Musk said the company was always moving forward with developments but was unwilling to give any specific details.
However, more color was offered from the Tesla CEO when he was asked about the company’s third vehicle platform.
It will exceed Tesla Model 3 and Model Y production output
Tesla Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas (Credit: Tesla)
Musk said the third-generation Tesla vehicle would be produced in quantities that outshine the Model 3 and Model Y. In fact, it would outpace manufacturing of all other Tesla vehicles combined.
This may be due to the vehicle’s size, which we’ll get to later. However, it is a true testament to Musk’s belief in Tesla’s manufacturing. With the utilization of one-piece castings, the Giga Press, and other manufacturing techniques, Tesla truly outshines many companies in terms of manufacturing efficiency. However, the company has still struggled with the build quality of its cars, which has been an issue for several years.
“Tesla will be head and shoulders above everyone else in manufacturing, that is our goal.” -Elon Musk
Tesla’s current annual production capacity is listed at roughly 1.9 million units. This figure is reflected in the Q3 2022 Shareholder Deck, which was released on October 19.
It will be roughly half the cost of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y platform
Tesla’s goals reflected in Elon Musk’s Master Plan revealed a trickle-down pricing strategy that would ultimately see premium-priced vehicles fund projects for more affordable cars down the line. The 2008 Roadster led to the Model S and Model X, which led to the Model 3 and Model Y.
Each vehicle chapter became more affordable, helping surge the adoption of electric vehicles. Musk confirmed the next vehicle platform will be roughly half the cost of the Model 3 and Model Y, bringing up flashbacks of the rumored $25,000 Tesla.
Elon Musk unveiling the Model 3 in March 2016
Musk neither confirmed nor denied that Tesla was developing a $25,000 model during the Q4 and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call in January. However, he did confirm on the Q3 call that the next vehicle platform is “the primary focus of the vehicle development team.”
The next vehicle is also fully expected to be used as the fully autonomous Robotaxi, which is still a few years away. However, the vehicle is not likely to come within the two years, as Tesla is turning its focus to ramping Cybertruck manufacturing and Semi production, which it targets to be 50,000 by 2024.
It will be Tesla’s smallest vehicle
Musk said that the new vehicle platform would also be smaller in size, as it would also help cut the total cost of the vehicle.
However, projections of what the $25,000 model would look like are usually smaller and more compact than the Model 3.
Credit: Alwinart/Twitter
While these are not officially Tesla designs, what is illustrated above is likely a similar size to what the company will bring to the table for the $25,000 model. The cost reduction can start at the dimensions of the vehicle overall, which will cut costs significantly. However, the real reduction comes from developing new batteries and the scaling of production. Musk also detailed on the Q3 Earnings Call that he still sees a path to a potential $70 per kWh cell, which is 30 percent less expensive than the projected “price parity” number, which lies at $100 per kWh. This, in theory, would bring EVs to the same cost as gas cars.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
