Investor's Corner
Tesla drives Panasonic’s profit forecast up 30%, supplier to test 4680 line in 2021
Tesla’s demand for automotive batteries has driven supplier Panasonic’s profitability forecast up 30% this year as the Japanese company looks to rebound from lockdowns and lackluster demand in 2020 caused by the coronavirus. Additionally, Panasonic executives revealed that the battery manufacturer would set up a test line in Japan for Tesla’s 4680 battery cells, a new battery unveiled by Tesla in September 2020.
Panasonic is looking to utilize the growing demand for electric cars in the United States and China to offset a tough 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Due to its long and strong partnership with Tesla, Panasonic plans to leverage the automaker’s popularity in both of the key regions to bring in more profitability, and projections are showing that is exactly what will happen.
Panasonic is expecting its automotive unit to post 50 billion yen in operating profit, Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda said in a press briefing, according to Reuters. Tesla takes in “nearly all” of Panasonic’s automotive batteries, Umeda said, and they account for around 40% of Panasonic’s total business.
Forecasts for Panasonic’s overall operating profit project 27.6% increases to 330 billion yen, or around $3.034 billion. In Q1 2021, Panasonic posted an operating profit of 31.8 billion yen ($292.43 billion), a 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2020. The biggest factor to this substantial decrease was Panasonic’s weak earnings report from its Life Solutions unit that manufactures lighting and materials for buildings. Automotive components of Panasonic reported profitable figures but were offset by the Life Solutions decreases.
The Automotive unit of Panasonic is where growth and profitability are being recorded. Panasonic plans to begin expanding its product line, and it begins with a test manufacturing line in Japan later this year that will produce Tesla’s cylindrical 4680 battery cells. The cells were unveiled by Tesla last year in September at the company’s Battery Day. Several performance improvements are outlined by Tesla’s new cell. They include a five-times increase in energy density, a 16% increase in range, and an improvement in power output by six times.
Tesla debuts new 4680 battery cell: 500% more energy, 6X power, range increase
The cells will also help reduce manufacturing costs and will contribute to a 14% decrease in price per kWh, bringing electric cars to price parity with their internal combustion engine rivals.
Panasonic is also investing in supply chain management services and recently acquired Blue Yonder, a U.S. supply chain software company, for $7.1 billion.
Analysts project Panasonic’s profitability to hit 327.56 billion yen, slightly lower than the company projects for itself. This is based on estimates from 16 analysts, according to Refinitiv data.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
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For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
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When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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