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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

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The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Ark Invest sees potential in xAI as the world adopts more AI models

Ark’s new stake in xAI bets on Musk’s future plans. Will the newly merged companies deliver the next AI breakthrough?

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Credit: x.AI

Ark Invest reinvested in X Corp in Q1 2025 through its Ark Venture Fund, which converted into a position in xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company.

In March, xAI acquired X, intertwining the two companies’ futures. The stock merger values xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion. After xAI acquired X, Elon Musk noted that the combined company would unlock “immense potential.” Ark Invest believes in Musk’s vision for xAI and X Corp.

“…the deal created a new combined entity called XAI Holdings Corp., a strategic union that integrates xAI’s cutting-edge foundational models with X’s massive user base of over 600 million strong to unlock a platform that blends real-time communication with AI-enhanced discovery, truth-seeking, and personalized knowledge delivery.

“We believe this merger will be a significant catalyst for consumer AI adoption and foundational model monetization,” Ark noted.

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Musk is reportedly planning a valuation adjustment for xAI. CNBC’s David Faber noted in April that Musk hinted at a new funding round for his artificial intelligence startup during an investor call.

The merger supports Musk’s vision to transform X into an “everything app,” where people can communicate, make monetary transactions, catch up on news, and more. xAI is already working on providing financial services. It recently partnered with TWG Global and Palantir to integrate AI with financial services.

In addition, XAI Holdings also has X Money, a payment system that could rival Venmo, Zelle, and Apple Pay. X Corp. secured a Visa partnership in January and money-transmitter licenses in 42 states, including California, in September 2024.

X Money faces opposition in New York from Manhattan Democrats Assemblymember Micah Lasher and state Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal, who sent a letter Monday to the state’s Department of Financial Services, urging rejection of X Corp.’s money-transmitter license. The lawmakers cited Musk’s leadership as a risk to consumer data and financial infrastructure.

Ark’s investment in xAI underscores confidence in its AI-driven future, amplified by the XAI Holdings merger. As xAI leverages X’s platform to scale AI innovation, Ark’s stake positions it to benefit from a transformative shift in consumer AI and fintech, despite ongoing challenges.

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Starlink Direct to Cell to boost remote businesses in Chile

Entel teams up with Starlink Direct to Cell to power SMEs & industries in Chile’s remote regions. Remote businesses get a major tech upgrade.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Entel will provide Starlink Direct to Cell services to businesses in Chile and Peru, boosting connectivity in underserved regions.

Entel is Chile’s leading telecommunications provider. Its strategic collaboration leverages Starlink’s Direct to Cell service by offering advanced internet solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large corporations.

The partnership targets industries like mining, agriculture, and forestry, which often face connectivity challenges in remote areas. By tapping into Starlink’s low-latency satellite constellation, Entel aims to bridge these gaps, driving innovation and competitiveness.

The collaboration with Entel follows Starlink’s April expansion in Brazil, where its internet was integrated into John Deere’s agricultural equipment. Through its mobile app, Starlink provided Brazilian farmers with live video feeds, sensor data, and real-time sharing.

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Entel’s Starlink Direct to Cell service includes value-added features such as 24/7 network monitoring, proactive management, and dedicated technical support. An observability feature will allow businesses to track real-time connectivity performance through web or mobile applications, enhancing operational efficiency.

The service’s accessibility to SMEs is a key focus. Starlink Direct to Cell is expected to empower small businesses to engage in e-commerce, improve customer communication, and expand digital operations.

Starlink’s Direct to Cell expansion into Peru underscores Entel’s regional ambitions, positioning it as a leader in Latin America’s business connectivity landscape. While details of the Peruvian rollout remain forthcoming, the move aligns with the region’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Reliable internet is critical for businesses to adopt cloud-based technologies and access global markets.

Starlink’s growing influence in Latin America highlights its role in transforming connectivity for underserved areas. Entel’s partnership strengthens its portfolio and helps businesses navigate a digital economy. As industries in Chile and Peru leverage Starlink’s capabilities, the collaboration could set a precedent for regional telecom providers, fostering innovation and economic growth across diverse sectors.

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Bill Gates estimates DOGE cuts will cost children’s lives, Elon Musk responds

Musk responded with choice words towards Gates.

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bill gates elon musk

During a recent interview with the New York Times, Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates shared a lot of criticism towards Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk, for his part, responded with choice words towards Gates. 

Bill Gates on DOGE

In his NYT interview, Gates lamented the fact that funding has been cut for programs that are supposed to help children abroad. Referencing the DOGE cuts made to the money going to Gaza Province in Mozambique, Gates stated that the people doing the cutting are not the most knowledgeable. 

“They cut the money to Gaza Province in Mozambique. That is really for drugs, so mothers don’t give their babies H.I.V. But the people doing the cutting are so geographically illiterate, they think it’s Gaza and condoms. Will they go meet those babies who got H.I.V. because that money was cut? Probably not,” Gates noted, adding that there will be “millions of additional deaths of kids” because of the cuts.

The Microsoft cofounder also admitted that he was surprised at the cuts that the Trump administration has implemented through the guidance of DOGE. As per Gates, he expected U.S.A.I.D. to receive a cut of about 20%, but the administration cut far more. “The reductions to U.S.A.I.D. are stunning. I thought there’d be, like, a 20% cut. Instead, right now, it’s like an 80% cut. And yes, I did not expect that,” he said.

Gates and Musk

Considering the nature of the interview, it was no surprise that Elon Musk himself was brought up as a topic. When the Times noted that Musk was not giving much away to the needs of the world’s poor, Gates stated that the Tesla CEO was ultimately the one who pushed for the cuts on U.S.A.I.D.’s budget. These cuts, Gates argued, effectively involve Musk in the deaths of the world’s poorest children.

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“Well, he’s the one who cut the U.S.A.I.D. budget. He put it in the wood chipper, because he didn’t go to a party that weekend… the world’s richest man has been involved in the deaths of the world’s poorest children,” Gates stated. Musk, in response, stated in a post on social media platform X that “Gates is a huge liar.”

Musk and Gates have not really gotten along, thanks in no small part to the Microsoft co-founder putting a $500 million short bet against Tesla. In Walter Isaacson’s Elon Musk biography, Gates stated that he was shocked that Elon Musk was super mean to him after the Tesla CEO found out that he shorted Tesla. “Once he heard I’d shorted the stock, he was super mean to me, but he’s super mean to so many people, so you can’t take it too personally,” Gates noted.

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