Investor's Corner
Elon Musk celebrates ahead of Tesla Q3 earnings with a Gigafactory camping excursion
With all eyes on Model 3 production numbers ahead of Tesla’s third quarter earnings report that’s scheduled to be released on November 1, CEO Elon Musk is seemingly in celebration as he camps on the rooftop of the Gigafactory.
Musk took to Twitter in the predawn hours of Thursday morning to share an Instagram photo of a “Campfire on the Gigafactory roof”. Garbed in his usual dark sports coat that covers a matching crewneck tee, Musk cheers his glass of whiskey while lip-synching to the lyrics of Johnny Cash’s “Ring of Fire” that’s heard playing in the background.
“Whiskey, fire, s’mores and JC” reads the caption to Musk’s Instagram video posted at nearly 3 a.m. in the morning.
Amid a downbeat week for Tesla that’s been fraught with mass firings, lawsuits, a Fremont factory protest, and criticism over Musk’s wild optimism and penchant to overpromise and underdeliver, Musk’s latest social media posts seemingly point to a more positive light that’s about to shine. Are we seeing first signs that Tesla is about to shock Wall Street on November 1 with better than expected results?
The usual high-flying Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) stock has seen a drop of roughly 4.5% in October after the company announced that it had produced 260 Model 3s and delivered 220 units in the third quarter – far from Musk’s original guidance of 1,500 Model 3s produced by September.
While it’s still unclear if Tesla has begun to dig itself out of “deep production hell“, recent sightings of Model 3 vehicles bearing VINs in the thousands suggests that the company is starting to step through the ramp portion of its “S-curve”. After all, Musk did share a series of videos in recent weeks that showed Model 3’s production body line in action and body panels being stamped in volume.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Tesla has secured a deal with China’s government that would allow the company to set up a factory in the country’s free-trade zone. Having a manufacturing presence in China will strengthen the company’s relationship with the Chinese government, but more importantly help aid mass production and delivery of its products at lower cost in the world’s largest auto market.
Though analysts’ estimates for Tesla’s third quarter revenues suggest that there will be a positive trend in the quarters ahead, Tesla’s gross margin will likely suffer due to costs related to infrastructure development and production ramp. Musk’s goals to produce 500,000 vehicles in 2018 while simultaneously launching a diverse mix of new products seems to be ambitious at this point.
We’ll soon find out if the recent camping excursion on the rooftop of the Gigafactory served as a celebration or just a regular Musk bender.
Stay with Teslarati as we bring you coverage of Tesla’s upcoming Q3 earnings report on Wednesday, November 1 that’s expected to also include a Q&A with Musk.
Updated: Musk took to Twitter to explain the reason for his late night rooftop camp session on the Gigafactory rooftop. “Btw, just want to express a word of appreciation for the hard work of the Tesla Gigafactory team. Reason I camped on the roof was because it was less time than driving to a hotel room in Reno. Production hell, ~8th circle”
https://www.instagram.com/p/BatMhVODF1L/
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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