The S-Curve: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is constantly referring to it, but what does it even mean? It could be the reason Tesla’s Model 3 revolutionizes the automotive industry.
The California-based electric car maker recently tweeted a visual representation of the S curve to make things clear for Tesla fans.
Model 3 production ramp S-Curve pic.twitter.com/QpCiGKiVWG
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 29, 2017
Essentially, the S-Curve is a production prediction that requires a company to invest vast amounts of money and resources at the beginning of production to work out the most efficient option. It’s about diffusion of innovation — as new ideas are tested, efficiency is reached, which leads to a higher volume of production.
As factory production ramps up, the low volume numbers in the beginning allow management to tweak and adjust logistics in order to create a product in the most efficient manner.
This requires time and energy, and results in a lot of trial-and-error for a company. As the company produces more of its product and fine-tunes its process, it becomes more efficient until it reaches full volume production.
Musk clarified further during the Q2 earnings report on Aug. 2.
“Model 3 drive units as well as battery packs made with our proprietary 2170 form factor cells are being built on new lines at Gigafactory 1. We are now fine-tuning these manufacturing lines to significantly increase the production rate,” Musk said. “We wish we could do all of this faster and get everyone’s Model 3 to them right away. It’s important to understand that our production ramp will follow an S-Curve, meaning that it will begin slowly, grow exponentially, then start to tail off once we achieve full production.”
These first few stages are the “production hell” that Musk nodded to during last week’s Model 3 delivery event. The S-Curve requires a patience that Tesla fans have learned to endure and skeptics on Wall Street have boiled about.
Melissa Schilling, professor of management and organizations at NYU’s Stern School of Business, recently told CNBC that the beginning of the S-Curve requires a company to pump a lot of money into their production line while getting very little in return.
As Model 3 production ramps up, it will reach full efficiency and tail off production increases will begin to plateau.
“As you start getting to the top, you’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit,” Schilling said. “Now (you) need to spend a lot more to get further.”
So as time moves on for Musk and Tesla, production will become more efficient and high-volume goals will be met.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) releases first quarter 2025 earnings results

Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings were released in an Update Letter, which was posted on the company’s Investor Relations website after markets closed today, April 22, 2025.
Tesla Q1 2025 Deliveries
Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries fell short of expectations, with the EV maker delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles, comprised of 323,800 Model 3/Y and 12,881 other models, worldwide. Vehicle production was at 362,615 units in the first quarter, comprised of 345,454 Model 3/Y and 17,161 other models.
Tesla Energy continued its momentum in Q1 2025, with the division deploying 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during the quarter.
What Wall Street Expects
As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35 per share on $21.85 billion in revenue, though whisper numbers suggest that the company will only post a gain of $0.31 per share. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 Results In a Nutshell
Following are highlights of Tesla’s Q1 2025 update Letter:
- Total Revenues: $19.3 billion
- Total automotive revenues: $13.967 billion
- Total GAAP gross margin: 16.3%
- Gross Profit: $3.15 billion
- EPS non-GAAP: $0.27 per share
- Free cash flow: $664 million
Key Updates:
Tesla’s total revenue decreased 9% YoY to $19.3 billion. YoY. This was due to a decline in vehicle deliveries, in part due to the new Model Y changeover and reduced vehicle average selling price (ASP), among other factors.
Tesla is still profitable, though operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4 billion. This also resulted in a a 2.1% operating margin. Tesla’s profitability in the first quarter was affected by reduced vehicle ASP, a decline in vehicle deliveries, and an increase in operating expenses driven by AI and other R&D projects partially offset by a decrease in SG&A, among other factors.
Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments stand at a healthy $37 billion. The sequential increase of $0.4 billion was primarily the result of positive free cash flow of $0.7 billion.
Below is Tesla’s first quarter 2025 Update Letter.
TSLA-Q1-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez
This article is being updated.
News
Tesla is thriving in Japan and outpacing homegrown EVs
Imports, which include vehicles from Tesla and BYD, now claim about 75% of overall EV sales in the country.

Tesla is seeing robust sales in Japan. This was hinted at in data from the Japan Automobile Importers Association’s “others” category, which indicated a 56% yearly increase to 2,120 units in Q1 2025.
Tesla constitutes most of the vehicles in the Japan Automobile Importers Association’s “others” category, as noted in a Nikkei Asia report.
Japan’s Tesla Boom
Car sales by “others” in Japan soared 89% to 1,249 units in March, a monthly high, Nikkei noted. Fueling this surge in vehicle demand seemed to be the rollout of the new Model Y, as well as incentives like a five-year free Supercharging offer for previous-generation Model Y units.
Japan’s overall electric vehicle market, however, shrank 33% to 59,736 units in 2024, comprising under 2% of total auto sales, the lowest among major economies. Imports, which include Tesla and BYD, now claim about 75% of overall EV sales in the country.
Weak Local Competition
One of the reasons behind Tesla’s surge in Japan could be the subpar EVs offered by Japanese automakers. So far, only eight models are available from homegrown automakers, and none could really hold a candle to vehicles like the new Model Y in terms of features and performance.
This was highlighted by the Nissan Leaf, which saw a 32% sales drop to 1,133 units, and the Toyota bZ4X, which saw a 76% drop in sales to just 85 units in the first quarter. Combined, Japanese brands sold a total of 2,063 EVs, less than Tesla’s estimated figures for the quarter.
Yoshiaki Kawano, an analyst at S&P Global, noted that the weak EVs from Japan’s homegrown automakers result in consumers opting for imported vehicles like Teslas. “There are few homegrown EV options, so in some cases people who want to buy EVs reluctantly choose imports,” Kawano stated.
Elon Musk
xAI poised for funding surge as Musk seeks “proper value” for AI startup: report
The report was initially shared by CNBC’s David Faber during a segment on the Faber Report.

During a recent investor call, Elon Musk reportedly hinted at a major valuation adjustment for his artificial intelligence startup, with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO stating that he was looking to put a “proper value” on xAI.
The report was initially shared by CNBC’s David Faber during a segment on the Faber Report.
Investor Call Sparks Speculation
Citing sources who were reportedly involved in the call, Faber noted that while Musk did not specifically state that he was looking to initiate another funding round, his comments about a “proper valuation” for xAI were interpreted by Faber’s sources that xAI may be setting the stage for a notable capital raise in the near future.
“Let me give you some takeaways from the call itself. It was with a number of the companies, the investors in xAI going over a number of important things, that included the closing of the X transaction… Remember, xAI and X are now one company valuing X at $33 billion going in. xAI had a value of as much as $80 billion.
“What I’ve heard is the company is setting up for another capital raise of great significance… But on the call, Musk is quoted as having said, ‘We’re going to put a proper value on the company in reference to xAI,’ and people took that to mean, and again this is speculation, that they will have a large raise,” Faber stated.
xAI’s Growth and Ambitions
Launched in July 2023, xAI introduced its Grok chatbot to challenge Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. In March, Musk merged xAI with X. “xAI and X’s futures are intertwined,” Musk wrote on X. “Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution and talent.”
The merger leverages X’s data to train Grok, boosting xAI’s competitive edge. xAI has also made a lot of headway in the artificial intelligence space, thanks in part to its speed, which allowed it to set up Colossus, a supercomputer cluster comprised of 100,000 GPUs, in just 122 days. Colossus has since been expanded to 200,000 GPUs, and plans are underway to expand the supercomputer even further.
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