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Tesla’s fuel savings estimate for its vehicles are actually nerfed for most US states

(Photo: Andres GE)

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Tesla’s online configurator for its electric cars primarily shows a price that’s adjusted for incentives and estimated fuel savings. These savings vary depending on the vehicle being ordered, with the company listing estimated gas savings of $4,300 for the Model 3 and Model Y, $5,300 for the Model X, and $5,500 for the Model S. These may seem like optimistic estimates, but as it turns out, these figures are actually conservative, at least for the majority of the United States.

Tesla’s fuel savings estimate is based on the premise that charging an all-electric vehicle is a lot more affordable than filling up the tank of a petrol-powered car. Looking at the company’s estimates, it appears that the listed fuel savings for the Model S, 3, X, and Y are based on the assumption that drivers would drive their Tesla for 10,000 miles annually for a period of six years. The costs of charging a Tesla over this period is then compared to the estimated costs of refueling a comparable vehicle, such as a BMW, with premium gasoline.

This strategy actually makes sense, considering that the all-electric construction of a Tesla will likely allow the vehicle to be used for at least six years. The comparison with BMW’s vehicles is quite sound as well, seeing as both companies offer premium cars that perform and compete in the same segment. That being said, EV charging rate monitoring service Optiwatt noted in a recent report that Tesla’s estimated gas savings are a lot more nuanced than what the company’s online configurator would suggest.

(Credit: Optiwatt)

If there is one area where Tesla could be faulted, it is in the way that its estimated fuel savings for the US are the same regardless of the state where the car is being purchased. Different states have different electricity and average fuel prices, which means that there are some places where Tesla drivers could save more than the company’s own estimates, and areas where the opposite will be accurate. Take Hawaii, for example. The state pays 32 cents per kWh of electricity, which is over three times higher than the 9 cents per kWh that are paid by residents in Oklahoma.

Fuel consumption varies across states as well, with drivers in rural areas consuming more petrol and drivers in high-density states like New York consuming less. Wyoming drivers buy the most gas per capita at 609 gallons per person per year, while New York purchases less than half at 292 gallons per person per year. Considering that Tesla’s fuel savings rely on the price discrepancy between electricity and gas, owners who drive more are more likely to meet the company’s fuel savings estimates compared to owners who drive less.

The Tesla Model Y’s estimated gas savings across the United States. (Credit: Optiwatt)

Optiwatt’s analysis notes that ultimately, there are some areas in the United States where owning a Tesla will save drivers far more than what the company’s estimates would suggest, and there are some areas where fuel savings will be underwhelming. Driving a Model Y in Rhode Island for 10,000 miles every year for six years will save owners about $4,235 in fuel costs, which is a bit less than the company’s $4,300 estimate. Driving the all-electric crossover in Wyoming for six years, on the other hand, will give owners fuel savings of $11,122, over two times the company’s estimates.

A look at Optiwatt’s data shows that Tesla’s newer vehicles like the Model 3 and Model Y are more likely to meet the company’s fuel savings estimates, despite the Model S and Model X’s free Supercharging capabilities. Yet on average, across Tesla’s vehicle lineup, it appears that Americans can expect to save about $2,500 more than the company’s estimated savings over a six-year period. This bodes well for electric cars and their economic appeal as a whole. After all, a Tesla is not just designed to run for 6 years. With the company’s million-mile batteries poised to be released soon, Tesla drivers over the years will likely see even more fuel savings for every electric car purchase.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk just set a condition that could end Falcon 9 as we know it

Elon Musk says SpaceX will finally retire Falcon 9 once Starship flies reliably every week.

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Elon Musk gave the clearest timeline yet for retiring Falcon 9, SpaceX’s workhorse rocket.

The comment came in a reply on X, where Musk wrote that “once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon.” He was responding to physicist Casey Handmer, who noted that NASA is reportedly uneasy about SpaceX phasing out Falcon after building what Handmer called the most successful launcher ever, with the fleet nearing 1,000 total launches.


Falcon 9 is still SpaceX’s busiest vehicle by far. The company is on pace for roughly 140 to 145 Falcon flights this year, following 165 in 2025, president Gwynne Shotwell told Time earlier in 2026. She has already said Falcon flights would “tail off” as Starship comes online, while reports indicate that SpaceX has stopped booking new Falcon 9 launches past 2028 and halted production of some expendable Falcon hardware, according to Bloomberg.

It’s worth noting that Musk’s post is a condition, and not a countdown on when Falcon will retire. Starship has not yet flown weekly, let alone daily. Its most recent flight in July ended with a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, a milestone Musk pointed to earlier this month when he said the vehicle’s heat shield problem was effectively solved. SpaceX towed that ship to Christmas Island for inspection, and the next flight, Flight 14, is aimed at putting Starship into orbit for the first time. A tower catch attempt for the upper stage has been pushed back to what Musk has called “a few months” away.

SpaceX and a new Trump order that could rewrite the next decade of launches

The gap between Falcon’s role today and Starship’s promised role tomorrow matters most to NASA. Falcon and its Dragon capsule remain the only way the agency rotates astronauts to and from the International Space Station, and Starship is not certified to carry NASA crews. Musk’s post did not address how that handoff would work if Falcon winds down before a crew-rated Starship variant exists. The timing lines up with Musk’s other recent Starship comments. Two days before the Falcon post, he told a different X user that SpaceX is aiming for more than 30 Starship launches a day by 2030, or roughly 10,000 a year, a figure tied to the Trump administration’s new push for higher national launch cadence. Falcon, which took over a decade to reach its first 100 launches, was never built to approach that kind of volume.

For now, Falcon 9 keeps flying at a near-record pace while Starship works to prove it can do the job Musk has already picked out for it.

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Tesla will launch Cybercab on September 3

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Credit: TechOperator | X

Tesla Cybercab is set to launch in Austin, Texas, on September 3, as the company has officially started sending out invitations to a dedicated event it will hold in the city where its headquarters is located.

The Cybercab is Tesla’s dedicated ride-sharing vehicle: it features just two seats and has no steering wheel or pedals. It is aimed at fully autonomous passenger transport, and will operate in the Robotaxi fleet alongside the Tesla Model Y, which has been performing driverless rides for real-world passengers for more than a year.

The launch of the Cybercab marks the next chapter in Tesla’s autonomy story. The company has been developing autonomous transport for years with its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) platform, which is available in any vehicle the company has built with the proper hardware and software capabilities.

Its capabilities vary by hardware and software version, but Tesla says its latest hardware version, known as AI4, can deliver full autonomy. However, future vehicles will operate with even more robust hardware packages, as Tesla will develop AI4.5 and AI5 for even more capability in its vehicles.

Following a report from The Information that surfaced earlier this week, the writing was on the wall that Tesla was set to launch Cybercab in the near term. The report stated Tesla could launch Cybercab as soon as the end of August. Tesla came close and has booked it for September 3.

Tesla Cybercab launch preparations have begun

The big thing with this event being scheduled is not necessarily that Tesla is launching a new vehicle, but instead that it is launching a vehicle that has no steering wheel or pedals and will operate exclusively on a self-driving program that is evidently nearing full autonomy. If the event allows vehicles to take passengers on public roads and drop them off wherever they please within the City of Austin, it will be a drastic advancement in the company’s self-driving story.

People have ridden in Cybercab previously: Tesla had the “We, Robot” event in October 2024, which allowed people to experience fully autonomous rides in a closed circuit at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank.

Additionally, Tesla launched employee rides in Cybercab in July.

It’s a drastic step forward for Tesla, whose CEO, Elon Musk, has promised for years that the company would release a fully autonomous vehicle and platform capable of allowing drivers to relinquish any responsibility behind the wheel.

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SpaceX and a new Trump order that could rewrite the next decade of launches

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Elon Musk put a number on where he thinks SpaceX’s Starship program is headed by 2030, replying on X a day after President Trump signed a memo pushing the country toward 1,000 space launches and reentries a year.

The exchange started when Aaron Burnett, co-founder of propulsion startup Mach 33, posted that “1,000 launches/reentries is the goal,” quoting White House science adviser Michael Kratsios on the newly signed National Space Transportation Policy. Burnett noted that the FAA’s own bull-case forecast reached only 385 annual launches by 2030, while his firm’s conservative model already put SpaceX alone near 940. Musk responded, “We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized. Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!”

That figure is specific to Starship, the rocket SpaceX is still developing for orbital and lunar missions, not the Falcon 9 fleet that carries most of the company’s current launch volume. Starship has flown twice this year, a slower pace than the four and five flights SpaceX managed in 2024 and 2025. Getting from two flights a year to 30 a day is the scale of jump the new federal policy is meant to clear regulatory room for.

Trump’s memo, signed Thursday, directs agencies to identify new launch and reentry sites on federal land, including a new reentry site within 90 days, and to speed up the permitting and environmental reviews that have long slowed cadence growth. It also sets a goal of returning American astronauts to the moon by 2028 and placing initial lunar base elements by 2030, tying the launch buildout directly to NASA’s Artemis program.

SpaceX has already been pushing the FAA toward higher numbers on its own. The agency approved up to 44 annual Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center in February, on top of a 2024 review that raised the cap at Starbase in Texas to 25 a year. Those approvals cover a fraction of the 10,000 annual flights Musk is now describing, which shows how far current permitting still sits from the administration’s stated target.

The near-term test of all this is more modest. SpaceX cleared a full-duration, six-engine static fire on its next Starship vehicle this week, the last major hardware checkpoint before Flight 14, which is targeting no earlier than August 28 and is expected to attempt the vehicle’s first full orbital mission. Musk said last week that a tower catch of the upper stage is still probably months away, a reminder that the immediate roadmap remains far more incremental than the daily launch numbers he just posted.

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