Investor's Corner
Tesla shorts on edge following $1.1 billion loss
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short-sellers are down $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses after TSLA stock rose 9.7% on Wednesday. The surge in the electric car and energy company’s shares comes on the heels of a successful 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where CEO Elon Musk expressed an optimistic outlook in the Model 3’s production and Tesla Energy’s budding energy storage business.
Tesla is currently the most-shorted U.S. equity and the most-shorted stock worldwide in the Automobile Manufacturing Sector, with 37.7 million shares shorted and $11 billion in short interest as of Wednesday, according to a recent report from S3 Partners. Over the first five months of 2018, Tesla shorts saw substantial returns, up $572 million or 5.53% in mark-to-market profits. Since May 22, however, Tesla short-sellers are down $1.7 billion in mark-to-market losses as the company’s shares rose by 16.6%, turning a profitable year into the third straight year of Tesla short-selling losses. Wednesday’s 9.7% rally generated $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses for $11 billion of TSLA short interest.
Overall, the financial technology firm expects Tesla’s short interest to decline as some short-sellers cut their positions after incurring $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses. Considering the conviction that has been exhibited by dedicated Tesla shorts over the years, however, analysts at S3 Partners expect that a significant number of short-sellers will still hold on to their positions.
Tesla’s long-term investors are now looking to the company’s stock reaching $350 per share as the company achieves its target of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of Q2 2018 — a milestone that Musk dubbed during the recently-held Annual Shareholder Meeting as “likely” to happen.
Wednesday’s 9.7% rally stands as Tesla’s biggest percentage gain since November 4, 2015. The stock closed at $319.50, marking the best close of the company’s shares since March 16 this year and making it the best performer on the Nasdaq 100 during Wednesday’s trading.
Apart from Musk’s optimism regarding the production numbers of the Model 3, a critical factor that appears to have resonated among Tesla’s shareholders was the company’s growing energy business. Earlier this week, Tesla CTO JB Straubel stated that the company has managed to deploy 1 GWh of energy storage worldwide to date. During the 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elon Musk noted that in less than a year, Tesla would be able to do another Gigawatt project, followed by even more growth in the years to come.
“In less than a year from now, we will do another Gigawatt (project). The rate of stationary storage deployment is going to grow exponentially. For many years to come, each incremental year will be about as much as all the preceding years, which is a crazy, crazy growth rate,” Musk said during the Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Elon Musk predicted a “short burn” after the company’s now-infamous Q1 2018 earnings call. In a series of updates on Twitter, Musk reiterated his expectation that Tesla would start seeing profits sometime in Q3 or Q4 2018, while stating that the “short burn of the century” would be coming soon. During that time, Musk noted that the deliveries of the Boring Company’s “Not-a-Flamethrowers” would come just in time. Interestingly, a handover party for the first 1,000 Not-a-Flamethrowers is set for this coming Saturday, June 9, at Los Angeles, just a few days after Tesla shorts took a $1.1 billion blow.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading down 0.32% at $318.49 per share on Thursday’s pre-market trading.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
