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Tesla stock (TSLA) crosses 3-month high as Model 3 debuts cross-country

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Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) traded up nearly 2 percent in early morning trading on Monday, as positive sentiment around the continued rollout and development of the Model 3 continues to make its way to Tesla’s showrooms across the country. This marks the third week in a row where the Silicon Valley tech company opened the week in positive territory, up sharply despite an ongoing government shutdown that seems to be affecting several players in the legacy auto industry.

Tesla ended the previous week on a high note, with the company’s stock closing out a week of gains and reaching $350.02, a level that the electric carmaker has not seen since October 2017. While Tesla continues to impress the auto community with its latest mass-market electric vehicle, however, shares of TSLA traded down immediately after the market opened, before rebounding and hitting a high of $357.00.

While the causes behind the performance of Tesla on early Monday remain unknown, one of the possible reasons behind TSLA’s initial decline during early trading could be the ongoing US government shutdown. A vote to end the shutdown is scheduled on 12:00 p.m. EST on Monday, the results of which would likely affect the stock market as a whole for the latter part of the day, as noted in a Reuters report. 

So far, TSLA has been performing admirably week after week since 2018 began, with the company’s shares climbing to territories not seen since October 19, 2017, when the stock reached an intraday high of $357.15.

Over the past couple of weeks, Tesla has been seemingly hitting its stride as general sentiments improved over the company’s ability to deliver its most disruptive vehicle to date, the Model 3. Display units of the Model 3 have been making their way to showrooms in major markets across the country. The vehicle has also enjoyed a strong positive reaction from automotive journalists and the electric car community as a whole.

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In addition, Model 3’s online configurator was recently updated to show options for the highly anticipated dual-motor version of the vehicle. A rumored Model 3 Performance variant, driven by Tesla’s Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, was spotted at a Supercharger station in the company’s Los Angeles-based Design Center as well.

Over at Detroit, the shares of legacy carmakers did not fare as well as TSLA during Monday’s early trading. Ford (NASDAQ: F) ended Friday on a weak note, dropping 0.58 percent to $12 per share. When markets opened, Ford’s shares were still down 0.75 percent, trading at $11.92, before trading flat. GM (NASDAQ: GM) performed similarly on early Monday, with the legacy carmaker’s shares dipping 0.58 percent to $42.92 when markets opened.

Overall, both legacy automakers’ shares exhibited a drop last Friday, in line with the shutdown of the US government. Based on the performance of Ford and GM’s stocks on Monday, Tesla might be well in the middle of yet another rally before the Detroit auto giants’ shares begin recovering. 

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

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(Credit: Tesla)

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

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The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

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Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

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Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.

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Piper Sandler raises Tesla (TSLA) target after China trip, cites robotics leadership

Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Piper Sandler boosted its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $500 from $400, maintaining an “Overweight” rating after a research trip to China. 

The firm cited Tesla’s leadership in artificial intelligence and robotics as central to its thesis, even as Chinese electric vehicle makers grow more competitive. Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

A China visit

During its visit, Piper Sandler met with several Chinese EV manufacturers, many of which are vertically integrated and expanding rapidly. Analysts noted that these “fast followers” represent Tesla’s most significant competitive challenge. However, executives from multiple companies acknowledged Tesla’s foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, TipRanks stated in a report.

One automaker told Piper Sandler that “without Tesla going from 0 to 1, we can’t go from 1 to 100,” highlighting the Elon Musk-led company’s enduring influence. Analysts said the remarks reflect both admiration and dependence on Tesla’s early innovations, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Tesla’s leadership

Piper Sandler’s report emphasized that while Chinese automakers are formidable in design and production, they look to Tesla for advancements in “real-world” AI applications. Tesla’s focus on autonomous driving and robotics continues to distinguish it from competitors, making the company Piper Sandler’s top investment idea in this space.

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“Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter stated in a note. 

Piper Sandler also shared some of its expectations for Tesla this year, stating that it is estimating that the company will delivery ~495k vehicles this third-quarter, possibly attaining a new all-time record. The firm, however, stated that its 2026 outlook for Tesla is shakier, as the EV maker could just hit ~1.9 million units, which could include as many as 350k affordable “Model 2” vehicles.

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