Investor's Corner
Morgan Stanley stops Tesla (TSLA) equity coverage, Elon Musk tempers social media use
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is up ~3% in early Tuesday trading amid reports that Morgan Stanley has stopped its equity coverage of the company. As of writing, Morgan Stanley’s website currently shows that Tesla had been moved from “Equal-weight” to “Not Rated.”
Neither Tesla nor Morgan Stanley has issued a formal statement about why the financial firm ceased its coverage of the electric car maker. Nevertheless, speculations have now emerged that Tesla might have reached an agreement with Morgan Stanley to have the investment bank serve as a financial advisor for the company’s possible privatization. Just last week, analyst David Tamberrino revealed that Goldman Sachs is serving as a financial advisor to Tesla for the company’s go-private initiative. Prior to the release of Tamberrino’s update, Goldman Sachs also stopped its equity coverage of Tesla.
Apart from Morgan Stanley possibly serving as a financial advisor to the electric car maker, reports also emerged that Norway’s wealth fund could stay as a Tesla investor even if the company goes private. This was addressed by Trond Grande, the deputy CEO of Norway’s $1 trillion wealth fund in a statement to Reuters. Norway’s wealth fund had a 0.48% stake in the carmaker as of the beginning of 2018, which is worth about $253 million.
“The priority is to try to preserve the value for the fund. That is the priority. If that means that the fund will be invested in a company that has been delisted for a period of time, that could happen,” Grande said.
Tesla stock had been particularly volatile since Elon Musk tweeted earlier this month that funding had been secured for the company to go private at $420 per share. Immediately after Musk’s Twitter announcement, Tesla stock soared, closing the day up 11% at $379.57 per share. Tesla stock has taken a steady trek down in the days that followed, as questions emerged about the source of funding Musk mentioned in his tweet. The company’s stock hit a low of $288.20 on Monday’s early day trading, before recovering and ending the day at $308.44 per share.
There is little doubt that Tesla’s current volatility was caused in no small part by Elon Musk’s social media activities. Had Musk not announced that funding was secured for Tesla’s privatization on Twitter, the CEO would have escaped much of the criticism being directed towards him today. And this is not the first time Musk’s social media activities affected Tesla’s stock either. When Musk had a row with a British cave explorer about his efforts to help rescue a stranded soccer team in Thailand, for example, Musk’s Twitter activities partly fueled a drop in Tesla stock. In an interview with Bloomberg‘s Tom Randall last month, Elon Musk mentioned that he would try to temper himself more on social media, particularly Twitter.
“I have made the mistaken assumption—and I will attempt to be better at this—of thinking that because somebody is on Twitter and is attacking me that it is open season. And that is my mistake. I will correct it,” he said.
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Today, Elon Musk appears to have taken a significant step towards tempering his social media use even further. Musk has been using Twitter and Instagram to post updates about his companies and his personal life, but today, his Instagram page appears to have been taken offline. Navigating to Musk’s page, which had 8.4 million followers, now shows a page stating that the profile might have been deleted.
Elon Musk’s use of social media is pretty much a double-edged sword for Tesla. On the one hand, it enables him to interact with his company’s fans and customers directly, but on the other hand, it could also result in him causing harm to Tesla stock. As more pieces of the puzzle seemingly emerge with regards to Tesla’s privatization, it appears that the deletion of Musk’s Instagram page might be a step towards the CEO adopting a more cautious online stance on the company’s privatization.
As of writing, Tesla stock is showing more recovery, up 3.23% at $318.41 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
