Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) starts recovering amid Outperform rating, $430 price target from Wall St firm
While Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) ended Monday’s trading at a nearly 18-month low, the electric car maker has nonetheless received an optimistic outlook from Macquarie Capital Inc. In a recently published note, the Wall Street firm gave the company an Outperform rating and a $430 price target, citing the electric car maker’s unique position to “lead in ecosystem platforms.”
Macquarie analyst Maynard Um wrote in a recent note that in the long term, Tesla would likely enjoy an edge against competitors due to the strength and integration of its vehicle hardware and software systems. The analyst pointed out that the auto industry is currently “on the precipice of a multi-decade transformation driven by disruptive innovation and technology.” Thus, companies focused on highly disruptive ecosystem platforms such as Tesla would likely be successful. Um also took a particular focus on Tesla’s real-world Autopilot data as pivotal in establishing the company’s place in the emerging autonomous driving industry.
The Macquarie analyst noted that in the short-term, he sees enough levers to fund Tesla’s debt maturity events, particularly if the company’s stock reaches $360 per share by 3/1/2019. Um did note, though, that it would be beneficial for Tesla to raise equity, as it would further strengthen the company’s longer-term outlook and provide a cushion for any unexpected events or periods of “economic softening.” The analyst also stated that there are two key demand drivers which provide comfort around Tesla’s sales.
“Our thesis is also predicated on TSLA having enough levels to get over the debt maturity hump including cash flow from ZEV credit (estimate potential for $500-$600 million in 2H 18) & Model 3 sales, access to $1.2 billion unused debt commitment, potential for credit amendments, et al. We see two demand drivers into year-end (key to achieving profits) that provide comfort around sales: 1) pent-up demand before the end of lifetime Supercharging on 9/18, and 2) pent-up demand before year-end when US subsidies diminish. TSLA appears on track for production targets & should be able to achieve profitability in 2H.”
The analyst concluded that ultimately, Macquarie’s Outperform rating and $430 price target for Tesla is driven by five primary factors – the electric car maker’s accelerating vehicle growth, the company’s “unique” potential among OEMs, its technology integration and differentiation, the expansion of its energy storage business, and its opportunity to lead in the autonomous driving field.
Amidst the release of the Macquarie analyst’s recent note, TSLA stock started showing some recovery, trading up 3.36% at $258.98 per share when markets opened on Tuesday.
The steep plunge of Tesla stock over the past week comes amidst the company’s improving fundamentals and even more accolades for its latest vehicle, the Model 3. Apart from showing impressive Q3 vehicle delivery and production results, Tesla has also been exhibiting signs that its ramp for the Model 3 ramp is getting even better. Since October began, for example, Tesla has registered more than 17,000 new Model 3 VINs, with the majority of the filings corresponding to Dual Motor vehicles. This Sunday, Tesla also shared an update stating that the NHTSA has found the Model 3 to be the car with the “lowest probability of injury” among the vehicles the agency has tested so far. Immediately following the Model 3 was Tesla’s two other cars – the Model S and the Model X.
Tesla’s vehicle assembly line in Fremont, CA.
Admittedly, some of the stock’s volatility could be attributed to Elon Musk’s behavior on Twitter last Thursday. Less than a week after agreeing to a settlement with the SEC regarding the commission’s lawsuit over his “funding secured” tweet last August, Musk opted to troll the SEC on Twitter. Tesla was down 4.4% on Thursday, but after Musk’s tweets, TSLA fell by 2% more. Friday and this past Monday were equally unkind to Tesla stock.
Fellow billionaire and iconic philanthropist Richard Branson recently expressed his thoughts on what Elon Musk could do to reduce his stress in Tesla. While speaking to CNBC, Branson noted that it would be best if Musk, a hands-on leader who has a tendency to overdo his work, learns the art of delegation.
“I think he maybe needs to learn the art of delegation. It’s important that he’s got to find time for himself, he’s got to find time for his health, and for his family. He’s a wonderfully creative person, but he shouldn’t be getting very little sleep. He should find a fantastic team of people around him and still jump in on all the major issues. And I think the reason that I have such an enjoyable life – a long life – has been finding wonderful people to run our companies on the key issues I can then get involved. So if I was to sit down with him – I have talked to him about it – but I think learning the art of delegation better would be his one flaw,” Branson said.
As of writing, Tesla shares are trading up 5.24% at $263.69 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla Full Self-Driving lands in a new country, its 7th
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
