Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shows recovery as Musk seemingly confirms positive August sales
Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are showing some recovery after taking a tumble yesterday amidst Elon Musk’s apparent support of a positive report estimating the sales figures of the Model 3, S, and X in August 2018, as well as an announcement of new orders for the Tesla Semi.
Musk’s Twitter update was posted as a retweet of sales estimates published by electric vehicle-themed website InsideEVs, which posted its monthly US EV sales scorecards for August. The website estimates that Tesla’s entire line of vehicles dominated the country’s electric car sales during the month, with the Model 3 being 1st, the Model S being 2nd, and the Model X being the 3rd best-selling EV in the US.
Tesla 1st, 2nd & 3rd in August sales https://t.co/npDKC9QEpP
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 6, 2018
While InsideEVs‘ scorecards do not include the official August sales figures from Tesla and other vehicles like the Chevy Bolt EV, the publication’s estimates appear to have been approved by Musk in his tweet. This seems to have positively affected investor sentiment, as the company’s shares recovered as much as 2.05% in Thursday’s pre-market.
Tesla might have hit a breakthrough with Model 3 production after the end of Q2 2018, but the company is still only around halfway through its target of ultimately manufacturing 10,000 Model 3 per week. Evercore ISI analysts who visited the Fremont factory last month noted that Tesla would likely be able to ramp to 7,000-8,000 Model 3 per week with minimal CapEx, and with the $35,000 base Model 3 still on the horizon, it appears that Tesla’s electric sedan is just getting started in its disruption of the passenger car market.
Apart from the positive August sales estimates for the Model 3, S, and X, Tesla also received a new set of orders for a vehicle that is still waiting for release. In an update on Thursday, Walmart Inc’s Canadian unit announced that it would be buying an additional 30 units of the Tesla Semi as part of its initiative to launch an emissions-free fleet by 2028. The 20 new orders for the Tesla Semi are set to be added to the 5 trucks Walmart ordered for its US fleet and the first 10 it ordered for its Canadian unit back in November. Walmart Canada noted that it is planning to utilize 20 Tesla Semis to support its fleet base in Mississauga, Ontario. The remaining 20 left for the Canadian fleet will be moved to Surrey, British Columbia.
The Tesla Semi is expected to begin production sometime in 2019, and Tesla is already on full throttle testing the vehicle on America’s roads. The Semi’s hand-built, carbon-fiber prototype has been making the rounds in several states lately, and it even visited some of the companies that have placed reservations for the vehicle, such as UPS, Ruan Transportation Management Systems, and J.B. Hunt.
The Tesla Model 3 is already disrupting the US’ passenger car market. GoodCarBadCar, an auto sales tracking website, ranked the electric sedan as the country’s 5th best-selling passenger car in August, up two places from its rank last July. The Model 3 is also the only electric vehicle that made it to GCBC‘s overall Top 20 best-selling vehicles list for the past month, which includes trucks like the Ford F-150 and SUVs like the Honda CR-V.
In the same way that the Model 3 is disrupting the passenger car segment, the Tesla Semi also has the potential to disrupt the US’ trucking industry. The trucking market is vast, handling the transportation of 71% of food, retail goods, construction supplies, and other cargo delivered every day — and it is still growing. The American Trucking Associations’ American Trucking Trends 2018 report, for one, revealed that the US trucking market generated $700.3 billion in economic activity in 2017, 3.5% more compared to 2016 when the trucking industry generated $676.6 billion. If Tesla can tap into this market with the Semi, the all-electric truck could prove to be a very lucrative vehicle for the company.
As of writing, Tesla shares are up 3.36% at $290.16 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla removes Safety Monitors, begins fully autonomous Robotaxi testing
