Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) starts strong recovery amidst Musk’s SEC settlement, Model 3 delivery estimates
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is exhibiting a strong recovery on Monday, trading up 15.40% at $305.54 per share during the opening bell. With its meteoric rsie, Tesla has practically recovered the losses it incurred last week after the SEC announced that it was filing a lawsuit against Elon Musk over his “funding secured” Twitter announcement last August.
Tesla shares took a steep dive last Friday, plunging 13.90% amidst news of the SEC’s lawsuit against the outspoken CEO. Amidst reports that Musk reportedly rejected a settlement from the government agency, Friday’s trading ultimately ended at $264.77 per share. Despite Friday’s plunge, though, Musk seemed to be in light spirits on Friday, expressing his gratitude to the Tesla community and even posting a “Don’t Panic” message on Twitter.
As developments over the weekend would prove, Elon Musk’s “Don’t Panic” message seems to be well-founded. On Saturday, the SEC released an update announcing that Musk had accepted a settlement for his lawsuit. The settlement involved a hefty fine worth a total of $40 million, as well as Musk’s resignation as Chairman for Tesla’s Board of Directors, but it did allow him to keep his post as CEO. The appointment of two new Board members, as well as the creation of a committee tasked with “placing additional controls and procedures to oversee” Musk’s communications, were warmly received by the Tesla community as well.
Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster noted that the SEC settlement is the best outcome possible from Elon Musk’s “funding secured” fiasco. Munster pointed out that the terms of the settlement actually works in Tesla’s favor, as the appointment of a new, capable Chairman of the Board could help Tesla reach sustainability, as well as become the wake-up call that Musk needs with regards to his behavior online.
“It’s not often that an SEC lawsuit could be viewed as an opportunity, but this is one of those rare cases. There are two key potential outcomes from the lawsuit. First, Musk stepping down as chairman of the board is something we wrote about before. The open board chairperson role creates an opportunity for Tesla to potentially put someone in place that is capable of influencing Musk and helping Tesla reach sustainability. Second, the lawsuit could serve as a wakeup call for Musk to tone down some of his public-facing behavior, particularly on Twitter. If Musk can step away from the external stuff that doesn’t matter, he’ll make the game that much easier for himself, and that will be good for everyone, just like this settlement.”
Apart from Musk’s settlement with the SEC, Tesla also seemed to have ended the third quarter on a strong note. The actual delivery figures for the Model S, 3, and X are yet to be released, but based on the company’s end-of-quarter push, it appears that Tesla has delivered a record number of vehicles to reservation holders during the final weeks of Q3. An email from Musk to Tesla employees sent over the weekend even noted that the company is “very close” to profitability, and that a strong Sunday delivery push would allow Tesla to “achieve an epic victory.”
What was rather remarkable is that Tesla and its employees were not alone in the company’s end-of-Q3 delivery blitz. Just like the past week, delivery centers received a boost from electric car owners who volunteered their time to orient newcomers with the features and functions of their electric cars. Even as the company approached the end of the third quarter, reports from the Tesla community still pointed to a continued delivery push, thanks to dedicated employees and owners who are willing to pitch in when help was needed.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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