Investor's Corner
Tesla’s market disruption may lead to healthy slice of global auto market: Mizuho
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is expected to control 10% of the global automotive market in the coming years, analysts from Tokyo-based Mizuho Bank said in a recent note to investors. Tesla’s disruption of the global automotive market through its high-tech and affordable electric vehicles could ultimately lead to the company producing 1-out-of-10 cars on the road in the coming years.
Over the past few years, the transition to electrification in passenger vehicles has accelerated greatly, mostly due to Tesla’s mainstream success as an automaker. The company’s influence on the global automotive market has been identified as disruptive and has caused OEMs like GM, Ford, and others to consider rolling out new electrified models, a plan that has culminated in some of the largest car companies in the world to change their long-term supply chain plans. Instead of focusing on purchasing combustion engines, these legacy automotive companies are opting for battery cells instead, making lofty but sufficient manufacturing goals that hint toward a future of fully electrified fleets.
Tesla has captured a considerable portion of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market over the past four years, mostly due to its introduction of mass-market EVs that are affordable and land around the price point of an average new car in 2021, according to Kelley Blue Book. While Tesla has raised prices on many of its models over the past several months as the company, among others, combats a global shortage of semiconductors and other critical parts of an EV’s DNA, Tesla still holds the reputation for the most advanced electric vehicles on the market at the most competitive prices. For the performance, range, and software that owners receive with Teslas, there isn’t a much better bang for your buck.
Analysts at Mizuho Bank agree, according to a note that the firm sent to investors. While Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh identifies the growing global EV market and Tesla’s domination of it, he is aware of incoming competitors. Not signaling that Tesla will encounter tremendous disruption from competitors, new or old, Rakesh’s money would likely be on Tesla if this were a betting situation.
The analyst wrote (via Seeking Alpha):
“Total BEV penetration is at 7.4% in Europe and 6.8% in China, while the U.S. lags at 1.9%. The up and comers still face challenges with VW sales lagging, while GM appears to be getting traction from its ~ $4K HongGuang Mini EV in China.”
Tesla held around 24% of the global BEV market in Q1, mostly due to impressive sales figures of the Model 3 and Model Y combined with Tesla’s continuing trend of Quarter-over-Quarter growth. While this is impressive, the real disruption will occur when Tesla starts to take a substantial slice of the overall automotive market. Rakesh believes the company could achieve up to 10% of the global automotive market, taking more gas-powered engines off the road than many could imagine.
Mizuho is bullish on the idea that TSLA could gain further traction in the EV market by leaving behind legacy companies and newcomers to the BEV sector due to its overwhelming lead in battery tech and autonomous driving developments. The company’s considerable lead in both of these categories makes it a prime candidate to begin even more disruption of the global automotive market. Mizuho believes Tesla could achieve at least 10% of the total market share in the coming years.
Rakesh is ranked 93 out of 7,551 analysts on TipRanks and holds a five-star rating with an average return of 26.3% and a success rate of 69%. He holds Tesla with an $820.00 price target and a “Buy” rating for the stock.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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