Investor's Corner
Tesla gets $420 price target over Model 3 efficiencies, “limited impact” from rivals
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently received another vote of confidence from a prestigious Wall Street research firm. In a recent note, CFRA, an independent investment research company, stated that it was raising its price target for Tesla stock to $420 per share — the same amount that Elon Musk quoted earlier this year during his short-lived attempt at taking Tesla private.
CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson maintained the firm’s “Buy” rating on the company, despite the electric car market likely becoming far more competitive next year with the arrival of high-profile vehicles like the Porsche Taycan. In a note on Tuesday, Nelson stated that there would likely be “limited impact” from competition, particularly as Tesla is poised to undercut rival carmakers with the rollout of the highly-anticipated $35,000 base Model 3. The CFRA analyst’s updated $420 price target is an 11% increase from the firm’s previous PT of $375.
“We expect unit costs to continue to fall, reflecting improved operating efficiencies and fixed cost absorption,” Nelson wrote.
The CFRA analyst’s optimistic outlook bodes well for Tesla, particularly as the company has reached a point in Model 3 production where the key focus is now cost reduction and further optimizations, not simple manufacturing numbers. In his note on Tuesday, Nelson stated that he expects the production cost of the $35,000 Model 3 to drop as Tesla achieves more efficiences. If Tesla can achieve this next year, the CFRA analyst stated that the Model 3 could very well undercut its rivals in the EV market.
Apart from Model 3 efficiencies, the CFRA analyst further remarked that the “tariff truce” between the US and China would likely have a positive effect on Tesla’s business in the Asian economic superpower. Such developments, according to Nelson, would probably have “positive gross margin implications” for the electric car maker.
China is among the largest markets for electric cars in the world, with EV sales in the country expected to breach the 1 million mark this year. Tesla has established its reputation in China as a maker of premium electric vehicles, and the company’s brand has remained quite strong over the years. That said, the trade war between the United States and China, which saw a steep 40% tariff placed on vehicles like the Model S and Model X, forced Tesla to compete against locally-made EVs at a disadvantage. With the 40% tariffs in place, a fully-loaded Model S P100D, which costs around $147,000 in the United States, was priced at 1.47 million yuan ($221,937) in China.
Amidst the “tariff truce” reached by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, though, there is a good chance that the steep 40% tariff on Tesla’s electric cars would get lifted, if not significantly reduced. Such an adjustment actually happened earlier this year, when China briefly reduced import tariffs from 20-25% to just 15%. The adjustment was met with enthusiasm among electric car buyers, resulting in a Tesla store in Shanghai clearing out its Model X 75D inventory in 24 hours.
With better headwinds in China and even more breakthroughs in Model 3 production, the coming year would likely be even more historic for Tesla. That said, it remains to be seen how investors would react to CFRA’s adjusted TSLA price target, as trading is suspended on Wednesday due to former president George HW Bush’s funeral.
As of Tuesday’s close, Tesla stock was trading at $359.70 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla executes ‘a must’ with Musk as race to AI supremacy goes on: Wedbush
Dan Ives of Wedbush says Tesla made the right move getting Elon Musk his pay package.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) executed what Wedbush’s Dan Ives called “a must” this morning as it finalized a new pay package for its CEO Elon Musk.
The move helped give Musk his first meaningful compensation at Tesla since 2017, when the company offered a pay package that was based on performance and proven growth. That package was approved by shareholders on two separate occasions, but was denied to Musk both times by the Delaware Chancery Court.
On Monday, Tesla announced on X that it had created a new package that would give 96 million shares of restricted stock to Musk to compensate him for the “immense value generated for Tesla and all our shareholders.”
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla has announced that its Board has unanimously approved a recommendation from the Special Committee of the Board to grant Elon an award of restricted stock equal to approximately one-third of the compensation he earned under the 2018 CEO Performance Award.
The… https://t.co/g7RKrTymDL pic.twitter.com/dnvkILlz6H
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 4, 2025
The details of the pay package are designed to retain Musk, who has voiced some concerns about his control of Tesla, as “activist shareholders” have used lawsuits to disrupt the previously approved package.
You can read all the details of it here:
Tesla rewards CEO Elon Musk with massive, restricted stock package
Ives says Musk’s retention is ‘a must’
Ives said in a note to investors on Monday that with the raging AI talent war that Tesla made a smart move by doing what it could to retain Musk.
He wrote:
“With the AI talent war now fully underway across Big Tech, we believe this was a strategic move to keep TSLA’s top asset, Musk, would stay focused at the company with his priority being to bolster the company’s growth strategy over the coming years. With this interim award increasing Musk’s voting rights upon this grant, which Musk honed in on and mentioned was increasingly important to incentivize him to stay focused on the matters at hand, this was a strategic move by the Board to solidify Musk as CEO of Tesla over the coming years with this framework for Musk’s pay package and greater voting control removing a major overhang on the story.”
He went on to say:
“While the groundwork is now in place for the next few years, it will be critical for the Tesla Board of Directors to get this long-term compensation strategy in place prior to the company’s November 6th shareholder meeting which would address the elephant in the room and remove a significant overhang on the stock.”
Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and its $500 price target on the stock.
Elon Musk
Tesla rewards CEO Elon Musk with massive, restricted stock package
Tesla announced a new pay package for Elon Musk that is restricted and will award him nearly $30 billion for contributions to the company.
Tesla has rewarded CEO Elon Musk with a massive, restricted stock package that equates to about $29 billion in shares in an effort to retain him as the head of the company.
It is also a package that aims to reward Musk for leading numerous Tesla projects that have brought billions in value for shareholders over the past seven years. After his 2018 pay package was rejected by a Delaware Chancery Court, Musk started to question his future at the company.
This move, performed by a Special Committee of the Tesla Board, should retain him for several years.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla has announced that its Board has unanimously approved a recommendation from the Special Committee of the Board to grant Elon an award of restricted stock equal to approximately one-third of the compensation he earned under the 2018 CEO Performance Award.
The… https://t.co/g7RKrTymDL pic.twitter.com/dnvkILlz6H
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 4, 2025
On Monday morning, Tesla shared on X that it had approved a recommendation from a Special Committee comprised of Board Chair Robyn Denholm and fellow board member Kathleen Wilson-Thompson. It aimed to compensate Musk for his “extraordinary work” and reward him after not receiving “meaningful compensation” for the last eight years.
The post stated that “Tesla is committed to honoring its promises in the 2018 CEO Performance Award and intends to compensate its CEO for his future services commensurate with his contributions to our company and shareholders, we have recommended this award as a first step, ‘good faith’ payment to Elon.”
The award includes the following:
- 96 million restricted shares of stock, subject to Elon paying a purchase price upon meeting a two-year vesting term, to be delivered after receipt of antitrust regulatory approval
- The purchase price will be equal to the split-adjusted exercise price of the stock options awarded to Elon under the 2018 CEO Performance Award ($23.34 per share)
- A requirement that Elon serve continuously in a senior leadership role at Tesla during the two-year vesting term
- A pledging allowance to cover tax payments or the purchase price
- A mandatory holding period of five years from the grant date, except to cover tax payments or the purchase price (with any sales for such purposes to be conducted through an orderly disposition in coordination with Tesla); and
- If the Delaware courts fully reinstate the 2018 CEO Performance Award, this interim award will be forfeited or returned or a portion of the 2018 CEO Performance Award will be forfeited. To put it simply, there cannot be any “double dip.” Elon will not be able to keep this new award in addition to the options he will be awarded under the 2018 CEO Performance Award, should the courts rule in our favor
The board added:
“The Special Committee believes now is the right time to take decisive action to recognize the extraordinary value that Elon created for Tesla shareholders. As such, the Board (with Elon and Kimbal Musk recusing themselves) has unanimously approved a recommendation from the Special Committee of the Board to grant Elon an award of restricted stock equal to approximately one-third of the compensation he earned under the 2018 CEO Performance Award.”
Musk and his brother, Kimbal, are both members of the Tesla board. However, both Musk brothers recused themselves from any voting on this pay package.
The move comes as Musk has hinted on several occasions that he is concerned about his control of the company. His current stake in Tesla stands at about 12.8 percent. He has said a few times he would be more comfortable with a 25 percent stake to protect himself against “activist shareholders.”
He commented on it during the Q2 Earnings Call in late July:
“That is a major concern for me, as I’ve mentioned in the past. I hope that is addressed at the upcoming shareholders’ meeting. But, yeah, it is a big deal. I want to find that I’ve got so little control that I can easily be ousted by activist shareholders after having built this army of humanoid robots. I think my control over Tesla, Inc. should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can’t be thrown out if I go crazy.”
The pay package should alleviate any concerns that Tesla would lose Musk as its CEO. Retaining him is perhaps the biggest step in ensuring consistent progress is made on several fronts, including AI and Robotics.
Investor's Corner
Tesla tailwinds could drive momentum-filled finish to 2025: analyst
Tesla is heading toward some momentum to finish out the year, one Wall Street firm believes.
Tesla has some tailwinds that could drive it toward a momentum-filled finish to the year, one Wall Street analyst is predicting.
The tailwinds are joined by some minor risks that have impacted the broader electric vehicle market, but overall, this firm believes Tesla has many catalysts moving forward.
Emmanuel Rosner of Wolfe Research believes that Tesla has plenty of things that could drive the stock upward as we approach the end of the year. With Q3 well underway, Tesla has about five months of catalysts to rely on to erase the roughly 18 percent drop in stock price it has so far this year.
At first glance, it is easy to see the things that would have investors bullish on Tesla for the rest of 2025 and even beyond. Initially, the Robotaxi launch and expansion, which spread to Northern California last night, provide potentially huge tailwinds for the company moving forward.
Along with that, and slightly related, are the advancements in Full Self-Driving that the company has made over the past few months.
This includes the potential launch of the FSD suite in regions like Europe and Australia, where the company believes it will make some progress on regulatory approval in the coming months.
Finally, Wolfe says the company’s Optimus project, which is expected to enter scale production sometime next year, is the third catalyst for Tesla moving forward.
With these three projects in motion, Tesla truly can begin to work on rebounding from a rough 2025 on the market.
Rosner writes:
“This name trades more around the narrative than the numbers. And net-net, we tactically see an improving narrative from here. Tesla has several catalysts coming up w/r/t FSD and Robotaxi, including an expansion of their AV service into several new U.S. markets (San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.). The company plans to unlock hands-free/eyes-off autonomy for FSD owners in select U.S. locations by YE25. Supervised FSD in China and Europe is expected to launch over the next ~12 months. And, Optimus is expected to enter scale production in 2026.”
Tesla is currently trading around $310 at around 3:20 p.m. on the East Coast.
Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence shape is an FU by Elon Musk to the competition
Tesla executes ‘a must’ with Musk as race to AI supremacy goes on: Wedbush
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals ideal timeline for insane self-driving feature
-
News1 week agoTesla hints a smaller pickup truck could be on the way
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoElon Musk gives key update on plans for Tesla Diner outside of LA
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks agoLIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025 earnings call updates
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoElon Musk’s Neuralink posts massive update with new milestone
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoTesla Supercharger Diner officially opens: menu, prices, features, and more
-
News2 weeks agoTesla rolls out update to Robotaxi service that makes pickups so much better
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks agoTesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
-
News2 weeks agoTesla sees 9,900 new vehicle registrations in China in July’s third week