Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) gets optimistic outlook from billionaire investor, Wall St analyst amid Q3 results
Tesla’s Q3 2018 vehicle production and delivery report revealed that the electric car maker set new records once more. Over the course of the third quarter, Tesla manufactured a total of 80,142 vehicles and delivered a total of 83,500 cars. Model 3 production and deliveries were at 53,239 and 55,840, meeting Tesla’s ambitious self-imposed targets. These results appear to have impressed Wall Street, with billionaire investor Ron Baron recently sharing his optimistic forecast on the company.
In a segment on CNBC‘s Squawk Box, Ron Baron of Baron Capital noted that he believes Tesla is headed towards even more growth. Baron’s firm, which has $28.3 billion in assets under management, holds 1.65 million TSLA shares. The Wall Street veteran noted that he believes Tesla’s electric car and battery storage business will be worth $500 billion each by 2030, giving the company an estimated total market cap of $1 trillion in the next 11 years.
“I think it could be a $500 billion battery business, $500 billion car business. I give that better than 50-50 chance. I think this is going to be the biggest car company. I think they’re going to have 10 million cars, 15 million cars sold per year eventually,” he said.
The billionaire investor further noted that Tesla is closing in on being self-funding, particularly since the costs of batteries are expected to drop over the next few years. Baron’s insights into Tesla’s sustainability were ultimately shared by Wall Street analyst Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet. While speaking at a segment in Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas, Shah noted that with Q3’s results, Tesla looks set to be sustainably profitable.
“I think they’re definitely sustainable. In fact, I would expect that deliveries continue to increase in the fourth quarter and in the next year. Keep in mind; they haven’t even started leasing the Model 3, which is how most consumers prefer to finance their car. They haven’t started shipping the Model 3 overseas in Europe and China. So, I still think there’s a lot of runways for them to grow,” Nomura stated.
The Nomura Instinet analyst further stated that he believes Tesla’s production and delivery figures in the third quarter might be the point where the company could break-even on a cash basis going forward.
“I think they’re there now. Whether they’re at a slight profit or at a slight loss this quarter, I think you’re looking at it here. 80,000+ deliveries a quarter should get them to break even, and in the fourth quarter, if they’re able to increase deliveries, which we think, closer to say, 100,000, then I think this company is gonna be profitable and probably sustainably so,” Shah said.
It remains to be seen if Tesla did achieve its goal of becoming profitable this Q3, though Elon Musk did state in an email to employees over the weekend that the company is “very close” to profitability. That said, the Nomura analyst’s point about Tesla having opportunities to grow the Model 3’s market stands in line with the company’s statement in its Q3 delivery and production report, which also mentioned leasing and foreign markets.
“Our Q3 Model 3 deliveries were limited to higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. There remain significant opportunities to grow the addressable market for Model 3 by introducing leasing, standard battery and other lower-priced variants of the car, and by starting international deliveries,” Tesla wrote.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.
JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.
Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.
Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025
The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.
The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”
JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.
There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.
JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.
Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.
Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days.
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark’s estimates
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.
“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.
Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.
Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds
Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.
“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.
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