Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) ‘likely to clear a rising bar’ for Q3 deliveries, Credit Suisse says
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has lofty expectations for its third-quarter delivery numbers, but Credit Suisse analysts Dan Levy and AJ Denham are convinced that the electric automaker is “likely enough to clear a rising bar.”
Levy and Denham also raised their “Blue Sky Scenario” price target to $630.
In a note to investors, Levy and Denham write that they expect Tesla’s Q3 2020 deliveries to be around 140,000 cars. They believe that this is “enough to clear likely buy-side consensus ~ 135-140k. While our expectation would require a record month for Tesla in September (~65k units), we believe this is feasible given Tesla’s typical quarter-end wave.”
* While the bar has risen on the 3Q delivery release, we believe Tesla may have just enough to clear it | Credit Suisse
Blue Sky PT $630$TSLA pic.twitter.com/a82lORbJlv
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) October 1, 2020
Tesla stereotypically turns up the heat and increases production and deliveries during the final two weeks of a quarter. In the past, the last two weeks have proven to be a boost to the company’s delivery figures as Tesla requires an “all hands on deck” approach to finish out the quarter strong.
“While the bar has risen on the 3Q delivery release, we believe Tesla may have just enough to clear it,” the analysts said.
140,000 Q3 deliveries would be Tesla’s largest quarterly display yet. “We assume June/July combined deliveries of ~75k; for context, this is the highest first two months of a quarter for Tesla, ahead fo the prior high of ~50k in Oct/Nov 2019, and all ahead of Oct/Nov 2019 of ~47k.” This number is astronomical, but the analysts believe it is doable because of U.S. demand and a quickly growing Chinese sector.
“While aggressive, we believe this is feasible given Tesla’s typical quarter-end wave.”
Earlier this month, CEO Elon Musk emailed Tesla employees, stating that there is the potential for “record deliveries” this quarter. The previous record was 112,000 in Q4 2019. Levy and Denham indicate that the bar has shifted after this email was sent and that a larger number of deliveries should be expected for Q3.
Finally, Levy and Denham believe that the post-Battery Day decline has been wiped away and that even a miss at the estimated delivery figure would still keep the stock higher than most price targets. “We’d expect the stock to remain elevated (even if temporarily trading off), as investors would ultimately look past the miss, focusing on Tesla’s robust growth narrative.”
A robust Q3 showing could open the doors for Tesla to achieve its yearly delivery target of 500,000 vehicles. Tesla would need a 160,000 Q3 delivery figure to slice the target in half, but around 140,000 would undoubtedly contribute to the cause.
Tesla will announce quarterly delivery figures within the next few days, and its Q3 2020 Earnings Call will be toward the end of the month, as usual.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.
Tesla reported it delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, ANNIHILATING Wall Street expectations of 406,000. Production was reported at 451,758.
Deliveries:
Model 3/Y: 467,762
Other Models: 12,364Production:
Model 3/Y: 442,936
Other Models: 8,822 https://t.co/TTHwQAsKt8 pic.twitter.com/7qI4Zj6FE5— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.
Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.
For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.
Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.
Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing
The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.
Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
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