Investor's Corner
Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley pumps the brakes and lowers PT ahead of earnings
Analysts at Morgan Stanley pumped the brakes on Tesla stock by lowering its price target ahead of the automaker’s Earnings Call late this week.
Tesla shares are down 15 percent so far this year. Over the past year, shares are up 66 percent, but moving into 2024, some bulls are remaining cautious.
Morgan Stanley is one of them. In a note to investors released on Monday, analysts at the firm noted there are several factors that could spell trouble for global demand, including increased competition, pricing instability, and slowing demand for EVs.
Tesla will report Earnings on Wednesday. The company reached its 1.8 million unit delivery goal in 2023. It also dominated EV deliveries in the United States and Europe and was toward the top of the list in China. It launched the Cybertruck, a new Model 3 design, and has plenty of other catalysts moving into 2024. However, an ever-changing landscape, more competition, and other factors have Morgan Stanley proceeding with increased caution for the year.
In a note from analysts at the firm, they wrote about the potential risks for the stock this year:
“Global EV momentum is stalling. The market is over-supplied vs. demand. We anticipate Tesla’s 2024 outlook to be cautious on volume and profitability…Tough sledding for EVs but we remain OW on AI and robotics optionality.”
Adam Jonas listed several risk factors for the stock in the note, which include price cuts, weakening or expiration of EV incentives, excess capacity in China, residual value risks, and fleets cutting EV concentration.
Price Cuts
Tesla is still working on pricing stability, which improved greatly throughout 2023 but still offered some concern for investors. Less expensive EVs equate to increased adoption, but it also puts pressure on margins and profitability for the company.
Tesla has already cut prices in China and Europe this year, which is concerning from Morgan Stanley’s standpoint:
“Tesla has already announced price cuts in China and Europe that matched or exceeded our prior expectations of price reductions for the full year 2024. The German Tesla price cuts came merely days after Tesla announced production cuts at Giga Berlin related to Red Sea shipping issues. Lower production is usually positive for prices. This suggests the European EV situation is changing quite rapidly.”
Expiration/Weakening of EV Incentives
In the U.S. especially, Tesla is adjusting the narratives that surround some of its vehicles and their eligibility for EV tax credits. Two Model 3 configurations lost the tax credit, and as it is one of the best-selling EVs in Tesla’s lineup, it is not a positive, although the car is still affordable.
Morgan Stanley is also skeptical about the future of the IRA, stating it looks to be “increasingly uncertain.”
Some consumers are in need of these incentives to purchase the vehicle, and even if they are not a necessity, they are a benefit. It could sway many consumers in the direction of other vehicles. It is important to note that Volkswagen, BMW, Audi, and Ford also lost tax credit eligibility on some of their EVs.
Excess Capacity in China
Morgan Stanley said its Chinese team noted sales cannibalization, increased battery capacity and inventory, and the expiration of “certain local stimulus measures” as reasons Tesla may feel the heat.
Residual Value Risks
Price cuts from OEMs have pressured EV residuals, and dealerships are less bullish on electric cars than ever. Jonas writes that residual value volatility “hurts the value proposition for consumers and creates uncertainty around leasing partners who don’t want to hold this risk.” This includes Tesla.
Tesla’s leasing penetration is in the low single digits globally, Morgan Stanley notes.
Fleets Cutting EVs
Hertz made a drastic announcement earlier this month, stating it would backtrack its massive commitment to EVs as it did not properly account for the cost of damages. One-third of its EV fleet is being sold off, and a portion of the proceeds will go back into combustion engine vehicles.
Other companies are doing this as well on a smaller scale. Fleets offer a few advantages, including a large boost to orders for EV makers. Hertz planned to buy 100,000 Teslas, for example.
They also give drivers an opportunity to drive EVs before buying. While this will still be available, it will be less widespread.
Price Target Downgrade
Morgan Stanley moved its price target to $345 from $380.
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Elon Musk
Tesla Cybercabs narrowly miss deadly Amazon cargo plane crash
An Amazon cargo plane crash near Miami’s airport stopped feet from dozens of Tesla Cybercabs.
An Amazon Prime Air Boeing 767 cargo jet overran the runway at Miami International Airport on Sunday afternoon, killing five people and injuring five more. The jet, operated by North Carolina based carrier 21 Air as Flight 7598, touched down around 2 p.m. after arriving from San Juan, Puerto Rico, then crossed the airport perimeter, plowed across NW 67th Avenue and struck multiple vehicles before catching fire, according to the Associated Press.
Photos and video from the scene show the aircraft’s nose stopped within meters of a fenced staging lot holding dozens of gold painted Tesla Cybercabs, the steering wheel free robotaxi Tesla began putting on public roads in Austin last week. Miami-Dade Fire Rescue has confirmed the plane struck “multiple vehicles” but has not said whether any Cybercabs were among them, and neither Tesla nor airport officials have addressed the fleet directly.
The Cybercabs had not yet entered commercial service in Miami. Tesla’s existing Robotaxi operation there runs on modified Model Y vehicles and has been unsupervised since Ashok Elluswamy confirmed the detail on X in July.
Footage of the plane crash from earlier today | #ONLYinDADE pic.twitter.com/iGoOtnd6cD
— ONLY in DADE (@ONLYinDADE) September 6, 2026
Elon Musk offered the briefest of reactions. Replying to a Zero Hedge post about the Cybercabs sitting so close to the wreckage, he wrote a single word: “Weird.” He has not commented further, and Tesla has not issued a statement.
The timing puts Tesla’s newest vehicle near an unrelated but highly visible tragedy just days after its Austin debut, a launch that had already drawn scrutiny from federal regulators. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an audit how Tesla certified the Cybercab as compliant with federal vehicle safety standards, a process Teslarati covered after the vehicle’s September 3 launch event. That inquiry concerns the car’s lack of a steering wheel and pedals, not the Miami crash.
Investigators from the FAA and NTSB are focused on the plane, not the parking lot beside it. Flight data reviewed by outlets including Simple Flying show the 767 touched down around 170 knots, well above the 135 to 140 knot range typical for the aircraft, though investigators have not determined a cause. Amazon said it is working with authorities and that its priority is the safety of everyone affected.
Whether any Cybercabs were damaged, and what Tesla plans for the fleet parked near one of the country’s busiest airports, remain open questions.
Featured
Tesla Cybercab is coming to Asia this month as US service officially begins
Tesla Asia says Cybercab will be on display in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing and Shanghai this month.
Tesla’s Cybercab is heading to Asia. The official Tesla Asia account posted on X Thursday, inviting Cybercab fans to “Come experience the future of autonomy in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing & Shanghai.” The post went up within hours of Tesla’s own Cybercab milestone in Texas, where the company said Thursday it had begun offering rides in across Austin.
Exact dates and venues for the Asia tour haven’t been released yet, though Tesla Hong Kong replied to the announcement with “Cybercab will be on display in Hong Kong soon,” while Tesla Japan’s response pointed fans to a sign up page for updates. Neither post mentions test rides or a service area, and nothing so far suggests Tesla is launching Robotaxi operations in any of the four cities. Based on how Tesla has run past Cybercab tours, in Europe in late 2024 and at US shopping centers that same December, the Asia stops are almost certainly static displays at Tesla stores or public venues as a means to stimulate buzz for its future driverless ride-hailing service in the big cities.
Cybercab will be on display in Asia this month!
Come experience the future of autonomy in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing & Shanghai. pic.twitter.com/wGmmEastfX— Tesla Asia (@Tesla_Asia) September 4, 2026
The timing lines up with Tesla’s only prior Cybercab appearance in the region, a booth at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai last November, which Teslarati covered at the time. At that event, Tesla’s regional general manager for Shanghai framed the car as evidence of the company’s broader mission, a message Tesla has since formalized in its Master Plan Part IV, which states that “autonomous vehicles have the capacity to dramatically improve the affordability, availability and safety of transportation while reducing pollution, particularly in our increasingly dense global cities.” The same document is where Tesla lays out its “sustainable abundance” framing for Cybercab and Optimus alike, describing the two as the hardware behind an AI driven push to cut the cost of transportation and labor at scale.
Whether Cybercab actually operates as a robotaxi anywhere in Asia remains an open question, considering China has already pushed an autonomous ride-hailing market that’s run on homegrown players like Baidu’s Apollo Go and Pony AI. For now, the four city tour reads as a marketing push timed to Austin’s momentum.
Elon Musk
OpenAI cites distrust of SpaceX in decision to drop Cursor partnership
OpenAI will cut SpaceX-owned Cursor’s model access in November, citing Musk’s history of broken contracts.
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, announced late Friday that it is ending its partnership with Cursor, cutting off the coding tool’s access to its models on November 12. The move comes two weeks after SpaceX completed its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor’s parent company, Anysphere, folding the popular AI coding assistant into Elon Musk’s growing SpaceXAI division.
In a post on its website, OpenAI said the decision came down to trust, not technology. “We cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our terms of service, based on our experience with Elon Musk’s companies violating contracts,” the company wrote. OpenAI pointed to two specific incidents: X, now part of SpaceX, allegedly breaking the terms of an existing OpenAI contract after Musk bought Twitter.
That lawsuit is the backdrop for all of this. Musk cofounded OpenAI in 2015, left the board in 2018, and sued Sam Altman and Greg Brockman in 2024, arguing they abandoned the company’s nonprofit mission for profit. A federal jury sided with OpenAI in May, finding Musk waited too long to sue rather than ruling on the merits of his claims. Musk said at the time he would appeal to the Ninth Circuit, calling the outcome a “calendar technicality” rather than a real judgment.
SpaceX’s interest in Cursor predates that verdict by weeks. The company first struck a deal with Cursor in April, securing an option to acquire it for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for joint development work instead. As Teslarati reported at the time, the logic was straightforward: Cursor was paying retail prices to Anthropic and OpenAI, two of its most direct competitors, every time a developer used its product, while SpaceX had idle capacity on its Colossus supercomputer, roughly the equivalent of a million Nvidia H100 GPUs, that Cursor could use to train its own models instead. SpaceX exercised the option in June, days after its own IPO, and the deal closed in mid-August.
Once it closed, Musk moved fast. On an all-hands call with more than 1,000 Cursor employees, he reportedly told staff that SpaceXAI’s Grok was playing catchup in the AI race, unlike Tesla and SpaceX in their own markets, and singled out Anthropic as the company to catch. Cursor CEO Michael Truell now reports directly to Musk inside SpaceXAI.
Losing OpenAI’s models leaves Cursor leaning harder on Anthropic’s Claude, which has its own compute agreement with SpaceX, and on Cursor’s in-house Composer model, the one SpaceX’s compute was supposed to accelerate in the first place. OpenAI framed the November deadline as maximum notice under its contract, and said it wants to “go above and beyond” to help developers through the transition. Whether Anthropic makes the same call is now the open question in AI coding.
Tesla Cybercabs narrowly miss deadly Amazon cargo plane crash
Tesla crosses major Unsupervised Self-Driving milestone
