Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) gets ‘Outperform’ rating, $355 price target ahead of Q2 earnings call
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be poised for an even bigger recovery, according to one of the electric car maker’s biggest bulls. In a recent note, Ben Kallo of Baird, one of Tesla’s most ardent supporters in Wall Street, reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his optimistic $355 per share price target.
In a recent note titled Q2: The Next Step in Restoring Bull Thesis, Kallo stated that he likes the Tesla share setup for the balance of the year. The Baird analyst further noted that Tesla’s further execution, starting with its second-quarter earnings report, will “help restore credibility and create a challenging short environment.”
Kallo pointed out that expectations for Tesla stock have become “overly negative” as of late, despite bear arguments shifting to margins following the company’s release of its record-breaking second-quarter production and delivery numbers. Despite these pervading sentiments, the Baird analyst nevertheless believes that the company’s margin results could exceed estimates, which would likely be viewed favorably by investors.
Tesla’s second-quarter results will likely determine the company’s momentum in the second half of the year. Tesla exceeded expectations in Q2 2019, producing a total of 87,048 vehicles while delivering approximately 95,200 in both the United States and other territories. These figures were notably higher than Wall Street’s estimates. Analysts polled by FactSet, for one, expected Tesla to report a total of 91,000 vehicle deliveries for Q2 2019 in the days leading up to the report’s release.
Tesla’s momentum could be highlighted by the shifting narrative surrounding the company. Just recently, Morgan Stanley ended up adjusting its estimates for Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 operations following a visit to China. After communicating with suppliers, the firm’s analysts admitted that Gigafactory 3, which is currently being built at a rapid rate in Shanghai, could be operational as early as November this year.
-->What is rather ironic with Morgan Stanley’s findings was the firm’s estimates for Gigafactory 3’s output. In a note, analyst Adam Jonas, who gave Tesla a “worst-case” price target of $10 in the second quarter, stated that the electric car production facility would likely produce 35,000-40,000 Model 3 per year in 2020, and ramp to 60,000 Model 3 per year in 2021. That’s a run-rate of 673-769 Model 3 per week in 2020 and 1,150 Model 3 per week in 2021. Considering Gigafactory 3’s scale, Morgan Stanley’s estimates seem curiously low.
Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report is set to be released after market close on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. It should be noted that the Q2 earnings call has been moved one hour to 3:30 p.m. PT (6:30 p.m. ET).
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -0.42% at $254.80.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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