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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock pops on Rivian deal, continuing surge toward $1T market cap

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) popped more than 3 percent on Tuesday after news of its collaboration with Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN), which will see the latter automaker adopt the former’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) for its vehicles. Rivian will also gain access to 12,000 Supercharger locations owned by Tesla in North America starting next Spring.

Rivian became the third major automaker to adopt Tesla’s NACS connector, following Ford and General Motors, both of which announced partnerships with Tesla earlier this month.

Tesla to open 12,000 Superchargers to Ford across U.S. and Canada

The NACS connector will give Rivian vehicles access to all Tesla Superchargers without needing an adapter in 2025. Next Spring, Tesla will open 12,000 locations to all three automakers, but the vehicles will need an NACS adapter to charge.

Rivian made the announcement that it would adopt Tesla’s NACS connector this morning.

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“Today, we signed an agreement with Tesla to adopt the North American Charging Standard. This opens charging for Rivian vehicles on Tesla’s Supercharger network across the United States and Canada. Access starts as soon as Spring 2024,” the company said.

Tesla shares popped over 3 percent on the news as of midday trading. Rivian shares were also trading at over 4 percent higher than they opened.

Tesla is surging back toward its potentially $1 trillion market cap, which it gained in 2021. Tesla shares suffered last year, but positive news has helped the automaker regain traction on Wall Street in 2023. So far, it is up over 128 percent this year.

The automaker has also had its stock pushed upward due to its Model 3’s prequalification for the $7,500 tax credit across the entire vehicle lineup. Previously, only one configuration of the Model 3 was eligible for the full tax credit amount, but a restructuring of which battery packs would be fitted into U.S. vehicles helped Tesla regain the full $7,500 credit for all three cars.

The question that still looms is what company will be the next to adopt NACS? Hyundai seems to be the most apparent, as the automaker is reportedly mulling the possibility of adopting the connector for its EVs, which would let its drivers gain access to the Tesla charging network.

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Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder, but does not own RIVN stock.

 

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | YouTube

Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.

As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.

Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.

He said in April:

“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”

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Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.

In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.

Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.

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In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:

  • January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
  • January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
  • July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
  • October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
  • July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries

It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.

These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.

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Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.

It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.

Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.

He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.

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Musk replied, basically confirming it:

Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.

AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.

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It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.

The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.

But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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