Investor's Corner
Tesla price target: analyst and firm adjustments ahead of Q2 Earnings Call
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has gotten several updates to its price target from various analysts and firms as the Q2 Earnings Call next week takes focus.
Tech analysts and firms alike have made various adjustments to their outlook on the EV maker’s stock over the past several weeks.
Despite what has been a lackluster year for Tesla because of its expected and planned leveling in year-over-year sales growth due to the development of the next-gen platform and Robotaxi, price targets have improved because of the delivery beat reported along with robust and relatively unexpected energy deployment numbers.
What caused Tesla price target increases?
Tesla beat analyst expectations in terms of vehicle deliveries for Q2 by about 6,000 cars, which was significant. However, Tesla’s big surprise was a 132 percent increase in energy storage deployments from Q1 to Q2.
Q1 was a company record at the time, but Q2 more than doubled the amount of battery storage capacity.
This caused some analysts to adjust their price target breakdowns of Tesla stock and others to start to factor in the energy division more than previously.
Tesla bears officially have their next big threat: Tesla Energy
Tesla $TSLA Price Target Adjustments
Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and several other firms adjusted Tesla price targets after the company reported Q2 figures.
Wedbush
Wedbush raised its price target by $25 to $300 from $275, citing a “major turning point” in the bull case.
Dan Ives of Wedbush said:
“The key for Tesla’s stock is the Street recognizing that Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market in our view with a historical Robotaxi Day ahead for Musk and Tesla on August 8th that will lay the yellow brick road to FSD and an autonomous future.”
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley did not increase its price target, but it did adjust the breakdown of how much the energy division factors into its $310 rating.
Previously, energy only made up $36 per share of the $310 price target that Morgan Stanley held. After this quarter, energy accounts for $50 per share.
“It’s no wonder that investors are starting to consider the real possibility that Tesla Energy may be worth more than Tesla Auto,” Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Citi
Citi boosted its outlook for Tesla from $182 to $274, stating that AI and subsequent automotive developments will need to justify the uptick.
Citi analysts said the increase in stock price won’t come from “core EV fundamentals” but instead from the execution of its future projects:
“The Q2 delivery beat was also encouraging, which prompts increased estimates and supports Citi’s underlying call for improving EV sentiment this summer. However, the firm believes core EV fundamentals alone are unlikely to support significantly further upside from here in Tesla shares absent new product and AI catalysts.”
Mizuho
Mizuho held its ‘Neutral’ rating but increased its price target on Tesla shares from $180 to $230. It also is not relying on EV fundamentals to see this growth, but instead stating AI, especially Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot, will be the major factors in an increase in valuation.
Analysts at the firm said these catalysts “could be much more difficult” to obtain but could be significant factors for an increase in price.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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