Investor's Corner
Tesla price target: analyst and firm adjustments ahead of Q2 Earnings Call
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has gotten several updates to its price target from various analysts and firms as the Q2 Earnings Call next week takes focus.
Tech analysts and firms alike have made various adjustments to their outlook on the EV maker’s stock over the past several weeks.
Despite what has been a lackluster year for Tesla because of its expected and planned leveling in year-over-year sales growth due to the development of the next-gen platform and Robotaxi, price targets have improved because of the delivery beat reported along with robust and relatively unexpected energy deployment numbers.
What caused Tesla price target increases?
Tesla beat analyst expectations in terms of vehicle deliveries for Q2 by about 6,000 cars, which was significant. However, Tesla’s big surprise was a 132 percent increase in energy storage deployments from Q1 to Q2.
Q1 was a company record at the time, but Q2 more than doubled the amount of battery storage capacity.
-->This caused some analysts to adjust their price target breakdowns of Tesla stock and others to start to factor in the energy division more than previously.
Tesla bears officially have their next big threat: Tesla Energy
Tesla $TSLA Price Target Adjustments
Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and several other firms adjusted Tesla price targets after the company reported Q2 figures.
Wedbush
Wedbush raised its price target by $25 to $300 from $275, citing a “major turning point” in the bull case.
Dan Ives of Wedbush said:
-->“The key for Tesla’s stock is the Street recognizing that Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market in our view with a historical Robotaxi Day ahead for Musk and Tesla on August 8th that will lay the yellow brick road to FSD and an autonomous future.”
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley did not increase its price target, but it did adjust the breakdown of how much the energy division factors into its $310 rating.
Previously, energy only made up $36 per share of the $310 price target that Morgan Stanley held. After this quarter, energy accounts for $50 per share.
“It’s no wonder that investors are starting to consider the real possibility that Tesla Energy may be worth more than Tesla Auto,” Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Citi
Citi boosted its outlook for Tesla from $182 to $274, stating that AI and subsequent automotive developments will need to justify the uptick.
-->Citi analysts said the increase in stock price won’t come from “core EV fundamentals” but instead from the execution of its future projects:
“The Q2 delivery beat was also encouraging, which prompts increased estimates and supports Citi’s underlying call for improving EV sentiment this summer. However, the firm believes core EV fundamentals alone are unlikely to support significantly further upside from here in Tesla shares absent new product and AI catalysts.”
Mizuho
Mizuho held its ‘Neutral’ rating but increased its price target on Tesla shares from $180 to $230. It also is not relying on EV fundamentals to see this growth, but instead stating AI, especially Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot, will be the major factors in an increase in valuation.
Analysts at the firm said these catalysts “could be much more difficult” to obtain but could be significant factors for an increase in price.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
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