Investor's Corner
Tesla’s (TSLA) growth gets it two new price targets from Morgan Stanley
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a new raised price target of $1,050 with an Underweight rating from Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley. The electric automaker also has received a revised bull case price target of $2,500 from the investment firm.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas gave Tesla the increased price target based on a combination of the electric automaker’s growth, its forecast until the year 2030, and the recent release of the Q2 Earnings Call results. Tesla’s Q2 results were announced on Wednesday, July 22.
“It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Tesla is going to become a very large company,” Jonas wrote in a note to investors. “For the first time during our 10 years of coverage, we’re starting to model this company as a very, very large automaker.”
Jonas’ last price target for Tesla was $740, and his previous bull case PT was $2,070.
* TESLA PT RAISED TO $1,050 BY MORGAN STANLEY; BULL CASE RAISED TO $2,500
🤯🤯$TSLA pic.twitter.com/4Fej1bSocq
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) July 29, 2020
Jonas believes that Tesla could approach and exceed Toyota and Volkswagen’s revenues during the next ten years. Morgan Stanley’s forecasted models that project Tesla’s growth until 2030 indicate that the electric automaker could see around $170 billion of revenues.
If Tesla can make this estimation a reality, it could become “a substantially larger company by revenue than Ford or GM.”
Tesla’s surge in stock price over the past few months has made it the most valuable automaker in the world, surpassing Volkswagen and Toyota. Both companies hold massive valuations based on their worldwide market and popularity.
However, Tesla is beginning to surge into global superstardom as an automaker. The company’s reign as the supreme mass-market automaker started in 2017 when the company unleashed the Tesla Model 3, an affordable sedan with multiple variants that would fit any driver’s range or performance preferences.
Since then, the company has worked to expand its fleet of affordable vehicles, while also offering an array of new styles and body types that will fit the lifestyle or occupation of nearly anyone on Earth.
Jonas stated in his letter to investors that the company’s Q2 results, along with the company’s expanding vehicle fleet, influenced the analyst to restructure Tesla’s revenue model.
“We have restructured our revenue model to include greater model granularity (Cybertruck, Semi, Multipurpose Van, etc.), raising our 2030 volume forecast to 3 million. Our forecasts give Tesla credit for nearly an additional three full factories of production, which we can see as reasonable give the company’s demonstrated strategy of rapid capacity expansion,” he said.
By 2030, Tesla will have at least four production facilities that will be churning out the company’s electric vehicles. The company’s main production facility is located in Fremont, California. However, Tesla’s Giga Shanghai plant is currently manufacturing the Made in China Model 3 and will soon expand to Model Y production.
Additionally, Tesla has two manufacturing plants that are under construction. In Germany, Giga Berlin will be completed in July 2021 and will begin manufacturing the Model Y for the vast European market.
During the Q2 call, CEO Elon Musk indicated that the company had already started construction at its newest U.S.-located production plant, which is located just outside of Austin, Texas.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
H/t: @DavidTayar5 on Twitter
Investor's Corner
Tesla Robotaxi gets a massive upgrade in Nevada
Nevada regulators just approved a massive expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi fleet across the entire county.
Tesla’s robotaxi footprint in Nevada just grew by roughly 500 times in a single regulatory vote.
The Nevada Transportation Authority approved Tesla’s full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit on Thursday, clearing the way for the company to deploy up to 5,000 driverless vehicles across Clark County over the next 12 months. The decision came during a four hour general session meeting that Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt watched live and reported on X, noting the vote replaces the interim order that had limited Tesla to just 10 robotaxis on a narrow stretch of the Las Vegas Strip.
EXCLUSIVE: Tesla has just officially received approval for its full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit in Nevada, clearing the way for Tesla to launch a paid public Robotaxi service in Las Vegas.
This officially allows @Tesla to deploy up to 5,000 robotaxis over the next… pic.twitter.com/DPs5UtUlrE
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 20, 2026
That earlier cap, covered here after it surfaced on August 13, came with restrictions that looked stricter than what Tesla runs in Austin: a 45 mph speed ceiling, no airport pickups, and a geofence confined to the Strip corridor. The new approval extends Tesla’s operating authority to all of Clark County, with room to request an even wider geofence across the state.
Tesla representatives at the meeting said they have no intention of putting 5,000 cars on the road right away. Commercial rides are expected to start within 30 days, pending vehicle inspections, insurance filings, and fare approval, the standard steps every robotaxi operator in Nevada has had to clear.
Tesla’s own Robotaxi account replied to the news with a short line, The golden future is upon us.
The timing lines up with Tesla’s broader robotaxi push this month. The company is preparing to open Cybercab rides to the public in Austin as soon as this month, and it opened a sweepstakes for riders to win a seat at the launch event. Tesla filed its original application for a 5,000 vehicle Nevada fleet back in June, a request regulators trimmed to 10 vehicles when they issued the interim order in July. Thursday’s vote effectively grants the number Tesla asked for from the start.
Zoox, the Amazon owned robotaxi operator, has run in Nevada since 2025 and was capped at 100 vehicles before Thursday’s decision. Tesla’s new ceiling puts it well ahead of that comparison on paper, though the company has said its actual fleet size will depend on how quickly FSD v15 rolls out, the software update executives have called the gateway to scaling unsupervised robotaxi operations nationwide.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
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