

Investor's Corner
Tesla's Q1 2020 production and delivery estimates: What Wall St is expecting
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to release its delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2020 later this week. Analysts listed by FactSet have solidified their estimates as to how many electric vehicles the company has delivered during the first three months of the year.
Rob Maurer of the Tesla Daily Podcast described the numerous predictions Wall Street analysts, financial publications, and others hold for Tesla’s first quarter. Noting the expected drop in numbers compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, several sources have listed their projected delivery figures to be above the 75,000 to 80,000 range that Credit Suisse released yesterday. Credit Suisse’s revised estimates came amidst an over 5% spike in TSLA stock on Tuesday’s trading.
FactSet has indicated that Wall Street expects Tesla to report deliveries of 91,694 vehicles for Q1 2020. This figure would show an 18% drop in deliveries considering the roughly 112,000 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, year-over-year growth would still indicate a significant 46% rise in deliveries despite the closing of both the Fremont factory on March 24 and Giga Shanghai earlier this year.
FactSet’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 results are:
- 91,964 Deliveries
- $6.19B Revenue
- $0.08 Non-GAAP EPS
- -$0.089 GAAP EPS
- -$478M Free Cash Flow
These are the numbers for Tesla’s Q4 2019:
- 112,000 Deliveries
- $6.368B Revenue
- $2.14 Non-GAAP EPS
- $0.58 GAAP EPS
- $$1.013B Free Cash Flow
Maurer notes that FactSet’s estimates may not include updated analyst expectations that are adjusted for the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic. This event has slowed Tesla’s delivery rate and virtually effected every automaker in the world for the past month. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, for one, has stated that many analysts have vocally told him they expect Tesla’s Q1 deliveries to be around 80,000, according to NASDAQ.
As for the Tesla Daily Podcast host, he noted that the effects of the C-19 pandemic may be felt more in the second quarter. “I think the bigger hit is going to come in Q2. I think people taking delivery in Q1 probably already had finances lined up. They probably had this decision made for a while. Tesla is probably not able to sell as many vehicles from inventory at the end of the quarter, but I don’t think that is going to be some massive hit,” he said.
The coronavirus has been felt by every single automaker across the globe, and Tesla is no exception. Interestingly enough, Tesla is expected to still hold a somewhat impressive quarter despite the loss of production in China and the United States due to the virus. Part of this may be be due to the company’s initiatives such as “contactless deliveries” and other safety measures that ensure customers are not put into harm’s way when taking delivery of their new cars.
Tesla’s delivery figures are expected to be released later this week.
Watch the Tesla Daily Podcast‘s breakdown of Wall Street’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 delivery and production numbers below.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.
Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive
However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.
TD Cowen
TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.
Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.
Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth
Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.
Stifel
Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.
The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.
It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.
Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.
UBS
While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.
UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.
It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.
In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.
Investor's Corner
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.
Building confidence
In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.
Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.
Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious
While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.
“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
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