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Tesla's Q1 2020 production and delivery estimates: What Wall St is expecting

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to release its delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2020 later this week. Analysts listed by FactSet have solidified their estimates as to how many electric vehicles the company has delivered during the first three months of the year.

Rob Maurer of the Tesla Daily Podcast described the numerous predictions Wall Street analysts, financial publications, and others hold for Tesla’s first quarter. Noting the expected drop in numbers compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, several sources have listed their projected delivery figures to be above the 75,000 to 80,000 range that Credit Suisse released yesterday. Credit Suisse’s revised estimates came amidst an over 5% spike in TSLA stock on Tuesday’s trading.

FactSet has indicated that Wall Street expects Tesla to report deliveries of 91,694 vehicles for Q1 2020. This figure would show an 18% drop in deliveries considering the roughly 112,000 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, year-over-year growth would still indicate a significant 46% rise in deliveries despite the closing of both the Fremont factory on March 24 and Giga Shanghai earlier this year.

FactSet’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 results are:

  • 91,964 Deliveries
  • $6.19B Revenue
  • $0.08 Non-GAAP EPS
  • -$0.089 GAAP EPS
  • -$478M Free Cash Flow

These are the numbers for Tesla’s Q4 2019:

  • 112,000 Deliveries
  • $6.368B Revenue
  • $2.14 Non-GAAP EPS
  • $0.58 GAAP EPS
  • $$1.013B Free Cash Flow

Maurer notes that FactSet’s estimates may not include updated analyst expectations that are adjusted for the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic. This event has slowed Tesla’s delivery rate and virtually effected every automaker in the world for the past month. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, for one, has stated that many analysts have vocally told him they expect Tesla’s Q1 deliveries to be around 80,000, according to NASDAQ.

As for the Tesla Daily Podcast host, he noted that the effects of the C-19 pandemic may be felt more in the second quarter. “I think the bigger hit is going to come in Q2. I think people taking delivery in Q1 probably already had finances lined up. They probably had this decision made for a while. Tesla is probably not able to sell as many vehicles from inventory at the end of the quarter, but I don’t think that is going to be some massive hit,” he said.

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The coronavirus has been felt by every single automaker across the globe, and Tesla is no exception. Interestingly enough, Tesla is expected to still hold a somewhat impressive quarter despite the loss of production in China and the United States due to the virus. Part of this may be be due to the company’s initiatives such as “contactless deliveries” and other safety measures that ensure customers are not put into harm’s way when taking delivery of their new cars.

Tesla’s delivery figures are expected to be released later this week.

Watch the Tesla Daily Podcast‘s breakdown of Wall Street’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 delivery and production numbers below.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

‘You chose ambition’: Tesla Chair hails shareholders for backing Elon Musk’s vision

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm has issued a letter to shareholders celebrating what she described as “overwhelming support” at this year’s Annual Meeting, framing the approval of Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar pay plan as a defining moment in Tesla’s mission. 

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

Denholm hails shareholder confidence

In her letter, which was posted by the electric vehicle maker on X through Tesla’s official handle, Denholm thanked investors for backing Proposals One, Three, and Four, items she said reaffirm Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV” and its broader mission to accelerate sustainable prosperity. She characterized the shareholder vote as “a vote of confidence in our visionary leader, Elon,” crediting Musk with transforming Tesla into one of the most valuable companies in history.

“In a year when many tried to sow doubt and negativity, you chose a better future,” Denholm wrote. “You chose ambition. You chose to see what is possible. You chose to back the people who have been in the room since the earliest days, fighting for the mission that first brought us all together—a better world for humanity,” she wrote in her letter. 

Her comments framed Musk’s pay package approval not only as a governance milestone but as a symbolic endorsement of Tesla’s long-term trajectory across autonomy, AI, and energy innovation.

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“A whole new book” of innovation

Denholm highlighted Tesla’s push toward autonomy as the company’s next major growth phase, citing the Robotaxi program and Optimus humanoid robot as examples of bringing artificial intelligence “into the physical world.” She described this period as potentially “the largest value-creation event in Tesla’s history, and quite possibly in the history of humanity.”

The letter reaffirmed the board’s commitment to direct engagement with shareholders through Tesla’s online platform and live events. Denholm emphasized that feedback from investors “informs our strategy and strengthens us” as Tesla prepares for new technology rollouts and expanded AI capabilities.

“You, our shareholders, have given us the mandate and the runway to execute. We are humbled, and rest assured that we do not take that responsibility lightly… Thank you for believing in Tesla. Thank you for standing with us. We look forward to years of bold leadership and pioneering innovation, fueled by our commitment to creating a better future for all,” she wrote.

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Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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Tesla Robotaxi and autonomy dreams lean on shareholders: Wedbush

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla’s dreams of developing a Robotaxi suite that utilizes a fully autonomous platform developed by the company’s top-tier talent now lean on shareholders and perhaps the most crucial vote in its history.

That’s what Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a new note to investors on Wednesday. As the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is now just one day away, investors are down to their final chance to vote for or against Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.

Ives wrote that, while the company has made its intentions clear, wanting to maintain Musk, pay him accordingly, and give him the voting power he has long wanted, ultimately, the responsibility falls on investors.

As many retail shareholders have pushed for people to vote for Musk’s compensation package, there are a handful of large-scale funds and firms that have decided to go in another direction. Bullish Wall Street firms, Wedbush being one of them, believe it is crucial for Tesla to maintain Musk.

The vote could have major implications on whether Tesla launches an autonomous Robotaxi suite in the near future, Ives says:

“Getting Musk’s pay package approved tomorrow at the highly anticipated meeting will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals with the autonomous and Robotaxi roadmap ahead.”

While some investors are convinced the company is ready to go in a different direction simply based on Musk’s political involvement over the past year, many investors are under the impression that the development of Tesla’s autonomy suite, as well as its prowess in the EV sector, would fall if Elon were not at the helm.

Tesla’s Board of Directors has already stated that they have received confirmation that Musk’s political involvement would wind down in a timely manner. Moving forward, his focus will not veer from the mission of any of his companies; at least that’s what can be gathered from some of the Board’s communications over the past month.

Musk’s new compensation package is incentivized by performance metrics and will require him to achieve a handful of lofty tranches. He will not get paid unless he drives shareholder value, which is something many skeptics tend to leave out.

Ives continues:

“This new incentive-driven pay package for Musk would also provide an additional 423 million shares of common stock (~12% of shares), which would increase his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power, which we believe was critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history. We believe this was the smart move by the Board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk…and with the AI Revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and center.”

Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $600 price target on shares.

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