Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) posts Q2 2018 financial results: $4B revenue, profitability in focus
Tesla’s second-quarter earnings for 2018 saw the California-based carmaker beat Wall Street revenue estimates after posting $4B billion in revenue and missed earnings estimates with a non-GAAP loss of $520 million.
The results, which were posted in an update letter to investors after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 1st, showed second-quarter earnings of -$3.06 per share, slightly worse analyst estimates of -$2.92 per share. Compared to the previous year, revenue grew 43.5%.
The company burned through $430M in cash in the second quarter.
REVENUE AND OPERATING LOSSES
The company’s revenue for the second quarter consisted of $3.36B in automotive revenue and $374M from their energy and battery storage division. Automotive revenue saw an increase of 46.8% compared to the same period last year. The energy and battery storage division saw an increase of 30.6% compared to the same period last year.
Automotive revenue increased by 22.75% compared to Q1 2018, largely due to the rapid increase in Model 3 sales, while energy generation and storage declined by 8.7%. Tesla deployed 84 MW of energy generation and 203 MWh of energy storage products in the second quarter as well.
MODEL 3
Tesla was able to deliver 18,449 Model 3 vehicles during the second quarter of 2018. In the quarter the company produced 28,578 Model 3’s. The company’s Q2 2018 Update Letter stated that the company still expects to reach its production goal of 6,000 Model 3’s per week by the end of August.
The company is aiming to reach a gross margin of 25% on the Model 3 in the long-term but set an initial goal of break-even for the second quarter. The company beat that goal in the quarter posting a slightly positive gross margin. After conducting a complete breakdown, an automotive expert recently estimated that Tesla could achieve a 30% or higher gross margin on the vehicle.
“Over the past 12 months, we have overcome bottlenecks across various stages of the Model 3 manufacturing process. Last quarter, it became clear that GA3, our main general assembly line, would likely become a production constraint if certain issues were not addressed. This assembly line, which is where we add all the components to a painted metal body, was designed to work with hundreds of robotic lifters that bring components to the line. Due to the density of the line and the relatively high downtime of the lifters, ramping GA3 became substantially more complicated than we had anticipated. That said, significant progress has been made in the last few months, and GA3 is now expected to reach a production rate of 5,000 per week very soon,” Tesla stated in the letter.
The company reported that they have received over 60,000 test drive requests for the Model 3. Most Tesla stores received their first Model 3 test drive vehicles and the company plans to continue deploying more Model 3’s to other stores, with a focus on the new Model 3 Dual Motor Performance. The company stated that early results show that the Model 3’s “test drive-to-order conversion rate” is higher than the Model S and X.
TESLA ENERGY
Tesla deployed 203MWh of energy storage in the second quarter and 84MW of solar energy generation systems. Tesla stated that the company’s solar and energy storage division has undergone massive changes as they prepare to exclusively sell the products online and at Tesla stores.
Energy Storage and Generation generated $374M worth of revenue for the company in the quarter. Tesla stated that 68% of all installations were cash and loan based, compared to lower-revenue generating lease-based sales.
“We are steadily ramping Solar Roof production in Buffalo and are also continuing to iterate on the product design and production process, learning from our early factory production and field installations. We have deployed Solar Roof on additional homes in Q2 and are gaining valuable feedback from each new installation. We plan to ramp production more toward the end of 2018 and are working hard to simplify the production and installation process before deploying significant capital into factory automation,” Tesla stated in the quarterly letter.
GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF 2018
Tesla still expects to deliver 100,000 Model S and X vehicles for 2018. The company also stated it targets to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3’s in the third quarter. Tesla still did not disclose an overall production target for the Model 3 in 2018. The Model 3 is expected to carry a 15% gross margin for the third quarter and 20% in the fourth quarter.
Tesla reiterated that they expect to be GAAP profitable in both the third and fourth quarter of 2018. Tesla also stated that they expect the company to be profitable going forward, despite rapid growth.
Tesla has just over $2.23 billion in cash at the end of the quarter, down from $2.67 billion in the previous quarter.
Today’s trading session ended with TSLA closing up .9% at $300.85. After-hours, the stock was trading up 3.9%.
Tesla’s full Q2 2018 Update Letter can be accessed here.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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