Investor's Corner
Tesla $TSLA Q2 2020 results: Recurring profit, beats Wall St. as business matures, S&P 500 in focus
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter earnings for 2020 saw the electric car maker post $6.036 billion in revenue, beating estimates from Wall Street. The results, which were discussed at length in an Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Wednesday, July 22.
Tesla’s second quarter was hit by the pandemic. Yet despite the ongoing pressures from the coronavirus outbreak, Tesla managed to deliver over 90,000 vehicles in Q2, thanks to the Model Y building momentum in the United States and the Model 3 hitting its stride in China.
The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q2 2020 Update Letter.
REVENUE
Tesla reported revenue of $6.036 billion for the first quarter, beating Wall Street’s expectations. In contrast, Wall St. expected Tesla to report revenue of $5.146 billion, less than the $5.985 billion that the company reported in the first quarter. In comparison, Estimize, a crowdsourced platform that aggregates estimates from analysts, executives, fund managers, and academics, is a bit more optimistic, expected Tesla to post a revenue of $5.443 billion.
PROFITABILITY
Tesla reported a GAAP operating income of $327 million; 5.4% operating margin in the second quarter. A $104 million GAAP net income and $451 million non-GAAP net income was also reported by the company. With this, Tesla has achieved four quarters of profitability.
EARNINGS
Tesla shareholders saw non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.18 in the second quarter. In comparison, Wall Street expected Tesla to report a loss of $0.14 per share. Interestingly enough, Estimize’s numbers stand opposite to Wall Street, with the platform expecting Tesla to post a profit of $0.19 per share.
CASH
Tesla posted a $535 million increase in its cash and cash equivalents in the second quarter to $8.6B, while generating positive free cash flow of $418M. These, according to the electric car maker, will allow it to take on the second half of 2020 with a stronger stance.
“Our business has shown strong resilience during these unprecedented times. Despite the closure of our main factory in Fremont for nearly half the quarter, we posted our fourth sequential GAAP profit in Q2 2020 while generating positive free cash flow of $420M,” Tesla wrote.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Next US Gigafactory site selected; preparations underway
- Increased Model S range to 402 miles (EPA)
- Model Y and China-made Model 3 production rates continue to increase
- 500,000 target unit deliveries for 2020 reaffirmed
- Tesla Semi deliveries planned for 2021
With such results, Tesla is poised to qualify for inclusion into the S&P 500, which requires a company to post four quarters of profit. The potential inclusion of Tesla into the index stands to benefit TSLA stock, as funds that are tracking and benchmarking against the S&P 500 would likely have to purchase shares. Such a scenario would likely push Tesla to new heights.
The results of Tesla’s second quarter earnings have been received enthusiastically by TSLA shareholders. As of writing, TSLA stock is trading 5.37% at $1,677.82 per share.
Tesla’s Q2 2020 Update Letter could be accessed below.
Q2’20 Update by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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